BallotWire Briefs — Weekly Election Update (June 1-5)

Top Election Developments

A weekly recap of major election news: key race developments, candidate moves, and shifts that could shape upcoming contests.

California Governor and LA Mayor Primaries Still Too Close to Call

California's June 2 primary produced no clear winners in two of the state's most closely watched races, with results expected to trickle in for days as millions of mail-in ballots are counted.

In the governor's race, Republican Steve Hilton leads with 27% of the vote, followed by Democrat Xavier Becerra at 26% and Democrat Tom Steyer at 20%, with roughly half the expected vote counted. Under California's top-two primary system, the two highest vote-getters advance to November regardless of party, meaning the real battle is now between Becerra and Steyer for the second spot, as late-arriving mail-in ballots, which tend to skew more Democratic, could shift the standings in the coming days.

In the Los Angeles mayoral race, incumbent Mayor Karen Bass advanced to the November runoff, but her opponent remains unclear. Bass secured enough votes to advance, but the race for second place between Republican Spencer Pratt and progressive City Councilmember Nithya Raman is too close to call, with Raman gaining ground in later vote counts.

Iowa Sets Up Competitive November Matchups in US Senate and Governor's Race

Iowa held its primary elections on June 2, setting the stage for two of the most competitive races in the state in nearly two decades, with Democrats eyeing a rare opportunity to flip both the U.S. Senate seat and the governorship.

In the U.S. Senate race, Trump-endorsed U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson won the Republican U.S. Senate primary by nearly 50 points to succeed retiring U.S. Senator Joni Ernst, while State Representative Josh Turek defeated State Senator Zach Wahls 62.6% to 37.4% in the Democratic primary. Turek, a 47-year-old Paralympic gold medalist, will now face Hinson in what Democrats hope could be the first Iowa U.S. Senate seat won by a Democrat since former U.S. Senator Tom Harkin's final reelection in 2008. Democrats are bullish on their chances in a state where Trump's tariff policies and the war with Iran have hit farmers especially hard.

In the governor's race, businessman Zach Lahn narrowly defeated Trump-endorsed U.S. Representative Randy Feenstra 38% to 37%, handing Trump one of his rare primary losses this cycle. Lahn, a farmer and businessman who aligned himself with the Make America Healthy Again movement, will face Democratic state Auditor Rob Sand, who ran unopposed, in November. Iowa has not had an open gubernatorial race since 2006, the year Democrats last won the governor’s office in the state.

Supreme Court Clears Alabama's Republican-Drawn Congressional Map, Putting Democratic Seat at Risk

The U.S. Supreme Court's conservative majority issued an emergency 6-3 order on June 2 allowing Alabama to use its 2023 Republican-drawn congressional map for the 2026 midterm elections, overturning a lower court ruling that had blocked the map as intentionally discriminatory against Black voters.

Alabama will now hold a special primary on August 11 for four congressional districts under the new map, which shifts the state's delegation from its current 5-2 Republican advantage to a likely 6-1 split, putting Democratic U.S. Representative Shomari Figures' seat in significant jeopardy as his district was redrawn to be far more Republican-friendly.

Coming just weeks after the April 29 Callais ruling weakened the Voting Rights Act, Tuesday's decision is the latest in a series of high-court actions reshaping the 2026 midterms in Republicans' favor, with Alabama set to join Tennessee and Louisiana in successfully redrawing their maps this cycle.

Bennett Wins New Jersey 7th District Democratic Primary, Sets Up Marquee November Battle Against Kean

Former Navy helicopter pilot Rebecca Bennett won the Democratic primary in New Jersey's 7th Congressional District on June 2, setting up a highly anticipated general election matchup against Republican incumbent U.S. Representative Tom Kean Jr. in one of the most competitive U.S. House races in the country. Bennett, backed by VoteVets, ran on her military background and a message focused on affordability.

Kean ran unopposed in the Republican primary but cast a shadow over his campaign by announcing he had been absent from Washington for three months due to an undisclosed medical condition, saying he would be transparent about his health once he returned to work in the coming weeks. Democrats are expected to make his prolonged absence a central issue heading into November. Kean won his 2024 election with 51.7% of the vote.

Louisiana Enacts New Congressional Map, Shifting Delegation to 5-1 Republican Advantage

Governor Jeff Landry signed Louisiana's new congressional map into law on May 29, eliminating one of the state's two majority-Black congressional districts and shifting the delegation from a 4-2 to a projected 5-1 Republican advantage. The map was drawn in response to the U.S. Supreme Court's April 29 ruling in Louisiana v. Callais, which struck down the state's existing court-ordered map as an unconstitutional racial gerrymander.

Under the new map, the majority-Black 6th Congressional District, currently represented by Democratic U.S. Representative Cleo Fields, is eliminated. The state's lone Democratic-leaning district remains centered in New Orleans and is represented by Democratic U.S. Representative Troy Carter.

The reshuffle also reset the election calendar. After the Supreme Court ruling, Louisiana cancelled the closed party primaries originally scheduled for May 16 and moved the U.S. House races to the state's traditional fall open primary. That election will be held November 3, with a general election, if necessary, on December 12. All candidates, regardless of party, appear on the same ballot, and a new qualifying period for U.S. House candidates runs August 5–7.

Gallagher Wins California US House Special Election

Republican Assemblyman James Gallagher won California’s 1^st Congressional District special election on June 2 with 62.4% of the vote, filling the seat left vacant by the death of U.S. Representative Doug LaMalfa and giving Republicans an additional vote in their slim U.S. House majority. However, his tenure may be short-lived. California's 2025 redistricting transformed the district from a deep-red Republican stronghold into a seat that leans Democratic by double digits, meaning Gallagher faces a dramatically tougher path to reelection in November against Democratic State Senator Mike McGuire, who also advanced out of the June 2 primary under the new district lines.

Campaign Cash Tracker

Latest campaign finance highlights: top fundraising hauls, war chests, and trends shaping key races.

Donalds Surpasses $81 Million Raised in Florida Governor's Race

Florida Republican gubernatorial candidate U.S. Representative Byron Donalds announced on June 2 that his campaign and allied super PAC have surpassed $81 million raised from more than 35,000 donors, cementing his financial dominance in the race. The total includes $13.8 million raised in April and May alone from 8,812 individual donors, with $9.2 million raised directly into his campaign account and $71.8 million into his Friends of Byron Donalds PAC.

State & Local Spotlight

Coverage of notable state and local election events that may indicate broader political trends or influence higher-profile races.

Doeden and Rhoden Advance to July Runoff in South Dakota Republican Governor Primary

Political newcomer Toby Doeden finished first in South Dakota's Republican gubernatorial primary on June 2, but fell short of the 35% threshold needed to avoid a runoff, setting up a July 28 showdown with incumbent Governor Larry Rhoden. With nearly all precincts reporting, Doeden led with 31% of the vote, followed by Rhoden at 25%, U.S. Representative Dusty Johnson at 23%, and State House Speaker Jon Hansen at 21%.

The July 28 runoff will now determine the Republican nominee in a state where the GOP remains heavily favored in statewide elections. Rhoden, who became governor after former Governor Kristi Noem joined the Trump administration, will face Doeden, a political outsider who built his campaign around eliminating property taxes and challenging the political establishment. The winner will advance to face Democratic nominee Dan Ahlers in November.

Data & Polling Roundup

New polling and data insights on the current electoral landscape and emerging trends.

Brown Leads Husted by 8 Points in Ohio US Senate Race; Governor's Race a Virtual Tie

A new Fox News poll of 1,015 Ohio registered voters, conducted May 28 to June 1 with a margin of error of +/- 3%, finds Democrats holding leads in both of Ohio's marquee November races.

In the U.S. Senate race, former U.S. Senator Sherrod Brown leads incumbent U.S Senator Jon Husted 53% to 45%. Brown's favorability stands at 53% favorable to 44% unfavorable, while Husted is underwater at 41% favorable to 50% unfavorable. Inflation and high prices are the top issues for voters at 43%, followed by healthcare at 12% and immigration at 11%. Nearly half of voters, 46%, say they are extremely concerned that Husted is too close to Donald Trump.

In the governor's race, Democrat Amy Acton leads Republican Vivek Ramaswamy by a razor-thin margin, 50% to 49%, well within the margin of error. About 30% of voters for both candidates say they could still change their minds before November, suggesting the race remains highly fluid. Trump's job approval in Ohio stands at 42% favorable to 57% unfavorable, a significant liability for Republican candidates in the state.

South Carolina's Republican Governor Primary Deadlocked as June 9 Primary Approaches

A new Citadel Poll of 1,505 South Carolina registered voters, conducted May 21-31 with a margin of error of +/- 3.2%, finds the Republican governor's primary essentially deadlocked heading into the June 9 primary, while U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham holds a more comfortable lead in the U.S. Senate race.

In the governor's race, five candidates are effectively tied among likely Republican primary voters, with Alan Wilson at 16%, Pamela Evette at 17%, Nancy Mace at 16%, Rom Reddy at 14%, and Ralph Norman at 13%, with 23% still undecided. Notably, Trump endorsed Evette on May 29 during the polling period, with 199 interviews conducted after the endorsement. Among those post-endorsement respondents, 73% believed the primary would be a close election, up from 61% beforehand. With no candidate near the 50% threshold, the race is virtually certain to head to a June 23 runoff.

In the U.S. Senate Republican primary, Graham leads challenger Mark Lynch 46% to 36%, with 18% undecided. Despite his lead, Graham's job approval among all registered voters stands at just 30% favorable to 42% unfavorable, suggesting potential vulnerability.

On the Democratic side, Annie Andrews leads the U.S. Senate primary with 45% among likely Democratic voters, while Jermaine Johnson leads the Democratic governor's primary with 33%, though 43% of Democratic primary voters remain undecided.