BallotWire Briefs — Weekly Election Update (June 8-12)

Top Election Developments

A weekly recap of major election news: key race developments, candidate moves, and shifts that could shape upcoming contests.

Graham and Andrews Win U.S. Senate Primaries; Evette and Wilson Head to Governor's Runoff

South Carolina held its primary elections on June 9, producing clear winners in the U.S. Senate race and setting up a competitive Republican runoff in the governor's contest.

In the U.S. Senate primaries, incumbent U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham won the Republican primary with 56.7% of the vote, comfortably avoiding a runoff against businessman Mark Lynch, who received 28.8%. Despite facing questions about his standing within a MAGA-era Republican Party and an approval rating that had slipped below 50% in recent polls, Graham's financial advantage and Trump's endorsement proved decisive. In the general election, Graham will face Annie Andrews, who won the Democratic primary with 61.5% of the vote over Brandon Brown, who received 30.2%.

Andrews, a pediatrician, has raised more than $6 million without accepting corporate PAC money, while making lower healthcare costs and Graham's shifting political record central themes of her campaign. Democrats hope Andrews' strong fundraising operation and Graham's softer approval ratings will make the race more competitive than expected and provide an opportunity to put South Carolina in play. Graham won reelection in 2020 by 10.3 percentage points, 54.4% to 44.1% over Democrat Jaime Harrison

In the governor’s race, Trump-backed Lt. Governor Pamela Evette finished first in the Republican primary with 28.8%, narrowly ahead of Attorney General Alan Wilson at 26.1%, followed by U.S. Representative Ralph Norman at 17.1%, businessman Rom Reddy at 14.1%, and U.S. Representative Nancy Mace at a distant fifth with 12.1%. Because no candidate secured a majority of the vote, the race will advance to a June 23 Republican runoff between Evette and Wilson. Mace conceded on primary night and endorsed Wilson.

On the Democratic side, State Representative Jermaine Johnson won the Democratic primary with 59.6% of the vote over Billy Webster, who received 29.6%. Democrats have not won the South Carolina governorship since 1998.

Ford and Lombardo Win Nevada Governor Primaries, Setting Up Marquee November Showdown

Nevada held its primary elections on June 9, producing clear and decisive winners in the governor's race and setting up what is expected to be one of the most competitive gubernatorial contests of the cycle.

Attorney General Aaron Ford won the Democratic gubernatorial primary with 63.6% of the vote, defeating Washoe County Commissioner Alexis Hill to advance to face Republican incumbent Governor Joe Lombardo in November. Lombardo sailed through the Republican primary with 90% of the vote in his bid for a second term. Ford, who in 2019 became the first Black attorney general in Nevada history, enters the general election with a well-funded campaign and strong name recognition. His campaign has centered on his record challenging Trump administration policies in court, while Lombardo is running on his economic record and incumbency advantage.

Lombardo narrowly defeated then-Democratic Governor Steve Sisolak by just 1.5 percentage points in 2022, making Nevada one of the most competitive governor's races heading into November. Recent polling has shown the race within the margin of error, with Democrats energized by Trump's sagging approval ratings in the state.

Becerra and Hilton Advance to November in California Governor's Race; Steyer Falls Short

California's June 2 governor's primary took a full week to resolve as millions of mail-in ballots were counted across the state's 58 counties. Democrat Xavier Becerra was projected to advance first, but the race for second place proved far more dramatic, with Republican Steve Hilton and Democrat Tom Steyer locked in a tight battle for days.

The second-place spot was called for Hilton on June 9, ending one of the most drawn-out primary nights in recent California history. Becerra finished with roughly 28.0% of the vote, with Hilton close behind at 24.9% and Steyer in third at 22.6%, ending Steyer's bid despite his self-funded campaign of more than $200 million. Matt Mahan, Antonio Villaraigosa, and Katie Porter all conceded on election night as early returns made their paths impossible.

The result sets up a November general election between Becerra and Hilton to succeed term-limited Governor Gavin Newsom. Democrats had spent months worried that a crowded Democratic field could allow two Republicans to advance under the state's top-two primary system, a scenario that was ultimately avoided. A new UC Berkeley IGS/L.A. Times poll finds Becerra leading Hilton 52%-31% in the general election.

UAW Endorses Benson for Governor and El-Sayed for U.S. Senate in Michigan

The United Auto Workers announced that the labor group endorsed Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson in the Michigan governor's race and former public health official Dr. Abdul El-Sayed in the Democratic U.S. Senate primary, two of the most consequential races in the state heading into August's primary.

The UAW cited Benson's willingness to stand up against powerful billionaires during her tenure as secretary of state and her alignment with working-class priorities. For El-Sayed, the union pointed to his refusal to accept corporate PAC money and his support for policies including Medicare for All and banning stock buybacks as reasons for the endorsement.

The endorsements provide significant labor credibility to both candidates. In the gubernatorial race, Benson will likely face Republican U.S. Representative John James in the general election. In the U.S. Senate primary, El-Sayed is competing against State Senator Mallory McMorrow and U.S. Representative Haley Stevens. Voters will decide the Democratic nominees in the August 4 primary, with the winners advancing to the November general election.

State & Local Spotlight

Coverage of notable state and local election events that may indicate broader political trends or influence higher-profile races.

Bass and Raman Advance to November Runoff in Los Angeles Mayor's Race

Incumbent Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass and City Councilmember Nithya Raman will advance to the November runoff after Raman overtook former reality television personality Spencer Pratt in the final stages of ballot counting. Bass led the field throughout the primary, while Raman secured second place as late-arriving ballots shifted the race in her favor, ending Pratt's bid for the runoff.

Raman, a progressive councilmember who entered the race late, gained momentum in the closing weeks with a campaign focused on housing affordability, homelessness, and public safety reform. Pratt, who lost his Pacific Palisades home in the 2025 wildfires, centered his campaign on criticism of the city's leadership and its response to the disaster, attracting national attention but ultimately falling short of a runoff berth.

The November election will now feature a head-to-head contest between Bass and Raman, setting up a high-profile debate over the future direction of Los Angeles. Bass won the 2022 mayoral election with 54.8% of the vote.

Data & Polling Roundup

New polling and data insights on the current electoral landscape and emerging trends.

Talarico and Paxton Tied in Texas U.S. Senate Race; Abbott Leads Hinojosa by 6 in Governor's Race

A new Texas Pulse poll of 807 likely Texas voters, conducted June 1-4 by ReconMR and Texas A&M's Bush School with a margin of error of +/- 4%, finds U.S. Senate and governor races highly competitive heading into November.

In the U.S. Senate race, State Representative James Talarico and Attorney General Ken Paxton are deadlocked at 46% each. Talarico holds a slight favorability edge at 39% favorable to 34% unfavorable, while Paxton is at 34% favorable and 52% unfavorable. Independent voters break toward Talarico 50% to 36%.

In the governor's race, incumbent Governor Greg Abbott leads Democratic State Representative Gina Hinojosa by a margin of 49% to 43%. However, Hinojosa remains largely unknown to voters, with more than half saying they have never heard of her. Abbott holds a 46% favorability rating, while Hinojosa's favorability stands at 31%.

The cost of living is the top issue for 61% of voters, followed by water supply at 33% and border security at 27%. Trump's job approval in Texas has slipped to 48-52%, a significant drop from the 13-point margin he carried the state by in 2024. Voters approve of his handling of border security 57-40%, but disapprove of his work on affordability 57-41%.

Democrats Lead Generic Congressional Ballot by 10 Points

A new Emerson College Polling national survey of 1,200 likely voters, conducted June 7-8 with a margin of error of +/- 2.8%, finds Democrats holding a commanding lead on the generic congressional ballot while voter pessimism about the country's future remains high.

On the 2026 midterm generic ballot, Democrats lead Republicans by 10 points, 50% to 40%, with independent voters breaking toward Democrats by 15 points and Hispanic voters by 34 points. Trump's job approval stands at 39% approve to 55% disapprove.

When asked about the country's future, 42% of voters feel optimistic, 41% pessimistic, and 18% uncertain. The same question was asked by The Roper Organization in 1976, when 43% felt optimistic, just 15% pessimistic, and 39% uncertain. Pessimism has surged 26 points over the past 50 years, driven largely by Democrats and independents, while 67% of Republicans remain optimistic. A plurality of voters, 46%, also say mid-decade redistricting is generally bad for the country, compared to 38% who say it is good. The economy remains the top issue at 38%, followed by threats to democracy at 18% and immigration at 14%.