BallotWire Briefs — Weekly Election Update (Mar. 2–6)

BallotWire delivers data-driven coverage of U.S. elections at every level—federal, state, and local. We track results, trends, and shifts beyond the headlines.

March 3 Primaries Offer First Look at 2026 Midterm Battleground

The midterm election season got underway on Tuesday, March 3rd, as Arkansas, North Carolina, and Texas held the first major primaries of the cycle. The night's most closely watched races were in Texas and North Carolina, where high-stakes U.S. Senate and House elections could ultimately reshape the balance of power in Congress. Beyond the individual results, the evening's most striking story may have been voter turnout. Democrats outnumbered Republicans at the polls in both North Carolina and Texas, with 2.3 million votes cast in the Texas Democratic U.S. Senate primary, narrowly topping the 2.1 million on the Republican side. In North Carolina, Democratic U.S. Senate primary voters outnumbered their Republican counterparts by roughly 200,000 votes. Below is a summary of key races from the March 3rd primaries.

Talarico Wins Texas U.S. Senate Democratic Primary - State Representative James Talarico won the Texas Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, defeating U.S. Representative Jasmine Crockett with 52.45% of the vote to Crockett’s 46.21%. Add more context - Talarico, a 36-year-old Presbyterian seminarian and former educator gained a following by making his faith a prominent focus of his messaging, running on a populist "It’s not left vs. right. It’s top vs. bottom.” message that sought to appeal across party lines. Democrats believe a perfect storm is forming in their favor to flip the Republican held seat in November, with a surge in primary turnout, a divisive Republican primary race, and Trump's sagging approval ratings, but history looms large: no Democrat has won a U.S. Senate race in Texas since Lloyd Bentsen's reelection in 1988.

Menefee, Green Advance to Texas 18th District Democratic Runoff - U.S. Representatives Christian Menefee and Al Green will face each other in a May 26 runoff after neither secured a majority in Tuesday's Democratic primary. Menefee led with 46.05% of the vote, followed by Green at 44.17%. The two incumbents find themselves competing against one another after redrawn district boundaries placed both congressmen in the same district. The winner of the runoff will advance to the general election.

Johnson, Allred Advance to Texas 33rd District Democratic Runoff - Former U.S. Representative Colin Allred and U.S. Representative Julie Johnson are heading to a runoff after neither garnered over 50% of the vote in the Democratic primary to represent the redrawn 33rd Congressional District. Allred led with roughly 43.96% of the vote to Johnson's 33.22%. The primary in the deep-blue 33rd District got competitive after Allred dropped out of the Texas U.S. Senate race and opted to run for the U.S. House seat reshaped by redistricting, setting up an unusual matchup against Johnson, who had succeeded him in a neighboring Dallas-based district.

Cornyn, Paxton Advance to Texas U.S. Senate GOP Runoff - Incumbent U.S. Senator John Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton advanced to a May 26 runoff election after neither candidate secured a majority in the March 3 Republican primary. Cornyn led Paxton narrowly, garnering 41.89% of the vote to Paxton's 40.68%, while U.S. Representative Wesley Hunt finished a distant third in the race with 13.51%. The race has been viewed as a key battle between the Texas Republican Party's establishment wing, led by Cornyn, and its hardline conservative faction, represented by Paxton. The day after the primary, President Trump made clear he intends to end the standoff quickly. In a Truth Social post, Trump wrote that the Texas Senate race "cannot, for the good of the Party, and our Country, itself, be allowed to go on any longer" and declared "IT MUST STOP NOW."  Trump said he would make his endorsement "soon" and call on whichever candidate he does not back to immediately drop out of the race. The winner of the runoff will face Democrat James Talarico in the November 3 general election, which is expected to be one of the most expensive and competitive elections this cycle.

Toth Wins Texas 2nd Congressional District Republican Primary - State Representative Steve Toth defeated incumbent U.S. Representative Dan Crenshaw in the Republican primary for Texas' 2nd Congressional District, scoring one of the most significant upsets so far of the 2026 primary cycle. Toth captured 55.83% of the vote, while Crenshaw captured 40.65%. Toth framed the race as a referendum on the future of the Republican Party, attacking Crenshaw for straying from the MAGA movement. Crenshaw was the only Texas Republican incumbent in the U.S. House to run without Trump's endorsement and became the first member of Congress to lose renomination in the 2026 midterm cycle.

Rep. Tony Gonzales Drops Out of Texas 23rd District Race - Following Tuesday's primary, incumbent Tony Gonzales and challenger Brandon Herrera were headed to a May runoff after neither secured a majority in the GOP primary. Herrera led with 43.33% of the vote, followed by Gonzales at 41.73%. However, on March 5, Gonzales announced he was dropping his reelection bid after admitting to an affair with a former staffer. U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson and other GOP members had publicly called on him to exit the race. With Gonzales stepping aside, Herrera will now advance to the general election against Democratic nominee Katy Padilla Stout.

Cooper, Whatley Win North Carolina U.S. Senate Primaries - Former Governor Roy Cooper won the Democratic primary with about 92.00% of the vote, while former RNC Chair Michael Whatley won the Republican primary with 64.60%. They will face off in November for the seat vacated by retiring U.S Senator Thom Tillis. The open seat quickly emerged as one of the most consequential races of the cycle. Democrats view North Carolina as one of their best pickup opportunities and a near-essential win if they hope to recapture the U.S. Senate majority. Cooper has won every election he has run in North Carolina, including two gubernatorial victories in 2016 and 2020, in years Trump carried the state. Cooper still faces an uphill battle, as no Democrat has won a U.S. Senate race in North Carolina since 2008.

Buckhout Wins North Carolina's 1st Congressional District GOP Primary - Retired Army Colonel Laurie Buckhout won the Republican primary in northeastern North Carolina's 1st Congressional District, setting up a rematch against incumbent Democratic U.S. Representative Don Davis in November. Buckhout won the primary over four other candidates and avoided a runoff, finishing with 39.52% of the vote, ahead of Asa Buck, who received 34.45%. In the 2024 general election, Davis held off Buckhout by less than two percentage points in one of the tightest U.S. House races in the country. The terrain has since shifted meaningfully in Republicans' favor, as state Republicans redrew the district last year as part of a nationwide redistricting push, turning a district Trump carried by roughly 3 points in 2024 into one that leans Republican by 5 or 6 points.

Foushee Wins North Carolina's 4th District Democratic Primary - Incumbent U.S. Representative Valerie Foushee narrowly defeated progressive challenger Nida Allam in one of the most closely watched Democratic primaries of the cycle. Foushee won 49.18% of the vote to Allam's 48.22%. Allam, a 32-year-old Durham County Commissioner, conceded the race on Wednesday. The race was seen as an early test of Democrats' desire for generational change, with Allam running to the left of Foushee on an anti-establishment message, calling to abolish ICE and rejecting donations from a pro-Israel lobbying group, a stance she criticized Foushee for previously accepting. Foushee is heavily favored to hold the deep-blue Raleigh–Durham district in November.

Top Election Developments

A summary of the most significant election news from the week, including major race developments, candidate activity, and changes that may determine upcoming contests.

Daines Announces U.S. Senate Retirement - Republican U.S. Senator Steve Daines announced he will not seek reelection in 2026, withdrawing from the race shortly before Montana's candidate filing deadline on March 4th. Kurt Alme, the state's Republican U.S. Attorney, entered the race shortly before the deadline closed and received a quick endorsement from President Trump.

Zinke Announces Retirement from Congress - U.S. Representative Ryan Zinke said he will not seek reelection to Montana’s 1st Congressional District in 2026, confirming his retirement at the end of his term. Zinke, former U.S. Secretary of the Interior from 2017 to 2019, cited health reasons for his retirement. Zinke has endorsed Montana talk radio host Aaron Flint to succeed him.

Owens Announces Retirement from Congress - U.S. Representative Burgess Owens announced he will not seek reelection to Utah’s 4th Congressional District in 2026, confirming he will retire at the end of his current term. Owens, a former NFL player first elected in 2020, said in a statement, “Recently, I asked myself the same question that began this journey: Can I do more? After careful reflection, I have concluded that to continue this work, the next chapter of my mission would be best pursued outside elected office.”

Trump Taps Mullin to Lead DHS - President Trump has announced his intention to nominate Oklahoma Republican U.S. Senator Markwayne Mullin to serve as Secretary of Homeland Security, replacing Kristi Noem. If confirmed by the U.S. Senate, Mullin would vacate his seat, triggering an appointment process in Oklahoma under which Governor Kevin Stitt would name an interim replacement until a special election is held to fill the remainder of his term, which runs through January 2027.

State & Local Spotlight

Coverage of notable state and local election events that may indicate broader political trends or influence higher-profile races.

Calderon Drops Out of California Governor's Race, Endorses Swalwell as Party Chair Urges Field to Thin - Former State Assembly Majority Leader Ian Calderon is the first Democrat to leave the California governor's race, endorsing Congressman Eric Swalwell. Calderon's exit follows an open letter from California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks urging candidates to assess whether they have a viable path forward in the election. He warned that although two Republicans advancing in November is unlikely, it's not impossible. Hicks called on lagging candidates to either file by March 6 or suspend their campaigns by April 15 if they are not progressing. The crowded Democratic field has raised alarm among Democratic party leaders due to California's top-two primary system, in which all candidates appear on a single ballot and only the top two finishers advance to the general election regardless of party affiliation. With Democrats splitting votes, Republicans could take both spots in November. Polls show GOP contenders Chad Bianco and Steve Hilton nearly even with top Democrats, raising concerns.

Holladay Wins Arkansas House District 70 Special Election - Democrats flipped a Republican-held legislative seat in North Little Rock on March 3, when Democrat Alex Holladay defeated Republican Bo Renshaw in the Arkansas House District 70 special election, winning with 57% of the vote. The victory continued a broader national trend of Democrats picking up seats in Republican-leaning districts, adding to a string of special election gains the party has notched since Trump returned to the White House in January 2025.

Data & Polling Roundup

An overview of newly released polling and data understandings that help contextualize the current electoral landscape and emerging trends.

New Poll: Georgia's Midterm Races Are Up for Grabs - A new poll from Emerson College Poll/Nexstar Media shows Georgia Democratic U.S. Senator Jon Ossoff holding a steady early lead over his potential Republican opponents in his reelection bid. Ossoff tops U.S. Representative Buddy Carter 47% to 44%, U.S. Representative Mike Collins 48% to 43%, and Derek Dooley 49% to 41% in hypothetical general election matchups. In the Republican U.S. Sente primary, Collins currently leads the field at 30%, followed by Carter at 16% and Dooley at 10%, with 40% of primary voters still undecided. The poll also tested the Democratic gubernatorial primary, where former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms leads with 35% support. Former Lieutenant Governor Geoff Duncan trails at 13%, and former DeKalb County CEO Michael Thurmond sits at 7%, with 39% of Democratic primary voters still undecided. The survey was conducted February 28–March 2 among 1,000 likely Georgia voters, including 464 Democratic and 453 Republican primary voters.

Republicans Hold Narrow Leads in Florida Governor and U.S. Senate Races - A University of North Florida poll of likely midterm voters, conducted February 21-March 2, finds Republicans ahead by single digits in both marquee 2026 Florida races. In the governor's race, Republican U.S. Representative Byron Donalds leads Democrat David Jolly 42% to 36%. He also holds a similar margin over Democrat Jerry Demings at 43% to 36%. In the U.S. Senate contest, incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Ashley Moody leads Alexander Vindman 45% to 38%, and holds a 46% to 38% lead over Angie Nixon.

Siena Poll Shows Hochul Leading Blakeman in New York Governor’s Race -  A new poll from the Siena College Research Institute finds Kathy Hochul  leading Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman, 51% to 31%, in a hypothetical 2026 New York gubernatorial matchup. The survey, conducted February 23–26, included 805 registered voters in New York State. These results indicate an early double-digit advantage for the incumbent governor as the race begins to take shape.