BallotWire Briefs — Weekly Election Update (May 11-15)

Top Election Developments

A summary of the most significant election news from the week, including major race developments, candidate activity, and changes that may determine upcoming contests.

Southern Redistricting Battles Intensify as Republicans seek additional U.S. House seats

Republican-led Southern states are accelerating redistricting efforts following the Supreme Court’s historic decision weakening key protections under the Voting Rights Act. The surge in activity is fueling an already unprecedented mid-decade redistricting fight that could significantly reshape the balance of power in the U.S. House ahead of November. Below is a look at the latest developments unfolding across the South as lawmakers push new congressional maps through state legislatures.

Alabama: The U.S. Supreme Court’s conservative majority cleared the way on May 11 for Alabama to reinstate a 2023 congressional map containing only one majority-Black district, overturning a lower court ruling that had blocked the map. The decision reduces Democratic representation by cutting the number of majority-Black districts from two to one, which could jeopardize Democratic U.S. Representative Shomari Figures’ seat and advantage, Republicans. Following the Supreme Court's May 11 ruling, Alabama will hold a split primary election, with most races proceeding on May 19 while a special primary for four congressional districts, Districts 1, 2, 6, and 7, is scheduled for August 11 under the 2023 map.

Florida: A state circuit court in Tallahassee heard arguments Friday from plaintiffs seeking to block Florida's new congressional map, which Governor Ron DeSantis signed into law on May 4 and could shift the state's congressional delegation from 20-8 Republican to as many as 24-4. Plaintiffs argue the map violates the state's Fair Districts Amendment, which bans partisan gerrymandering. Voting rights groups, including the Southern Poverty Law Center and the League of Women Voters, are backing the legal challenge. If the court denies a temporary injunction, plaintiffs say they will appeal, with the case likely heading to the Florida Supreme Court.

Georgia: Governor Brian Kemp signed a proclamation on Wednesday formally convening the Georgia General Assembly for a special session beginning June 17, focused on redistricting for the State Senate, State House, and U.S. House of Representatives. Any changes would take effect for the 2028 election cycle, not 2026. Democrats warn that new maps, if made more favorable to Republicans, could diminish Black voters’ representation and Democratic U.S. House seats in the long term.

Louisiana: The Louisiana Senate passed a new congressional map Thursday on a 27-10 party-line vote that would reduce the state's majority-Black districts from two to one, shifting a seat from Democrats to Republicans and giving the GOP a 5-1 advantage in the delegation. The bill now heads to the State House, which must approve a final map by June 1.

Mississippi: Governor Tate Reeves canceled the state legislative special session scheduled for May 20 after the U.S. Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals vacated a lower court order requiring the state to redraw its Supreme Court district lines. However, Reeves said he expects lawmakers to redraw the state’s congressional, state legislative, and Supreme Court district lines before the 2027 election cycle, which could affect future partisan representation and the competitiveness of seats.

South Carolina: Governor Henry McMaster signed an executive order on Thursday calling the South Carolina legislature back for a special session to address congressional redistricting beginning Friday, May 15, reversing his earlier position after the State Senate rejected a measure to extend its current session to take up a new congressional map earlier this week. The proposed new congressional map would eliminate the state's only majority-minority district, held by longtime Democratic U.S. Representative Jim Clyburn, potentially giving Republicans all seven of South Carolina's U.S. House seats. Lawmakers face a significant time crunch, however, as South Carolina's primaries are set for June 9 and early voting begins in just two weeks on May 26, meaning a new map would need to pass immediately to accommodate the new lines.

State & Local Spotlight

Coverage of notable state and local election events that may indicate broader political trends or influence higher-profile races.

Baraka Wins Fourth Term as Newark Mayor

Ras Baraka won a fourth term as mayor of Newark, New Jersey, on May 12, capturing 70.3% of the vote in the city’s nonpartisan election. Jhamar Youngblood finished second with 16.7%, while no other candidate topped 5%. With more than 50% of the vote, Baraka avoided a June 9 runoff election. First elected in 2014, Baraka also ran for governor in 2025, placing second in the Democratic primary behind then U.S. Representative Mikie Sherrill.

New Hampshire Moves State Primary to June

New Hampshire will begin holding its state primaries in June starting in 2028 after Governor Kelly Ayotte signed the change into law. Under the new schedule, party primaries for offices including the governor, executive councilors, state senators and state representatives will take place on the second Tuesday in June. The 2026 primary will still be held on September 8.

Data & Polling Roundup

An overview of newly released polling and data understandings that help contextualize the current electoral landscape and emerging trends.

Benson Leads Michigan Governor's Race; U.S. Senate Remains a Toss-Up

A new Glengariff Group survey of 600 likely Michigan general election voters, conducted April 28 to May 1 with a margin of error of +/- 4%, finds Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson pulling ahead in the governor's race while all three Democratic U.S. Senate candidates remain in a statistical dead heat with Republican Mike Rogers.

In the gubernatorial election, Benson leads Republican John James 34.2% to 29.2%, with independent Mike Duggan at 23%. The shift marks a major change from February, when all three candidates were tied within the margin of error. Benson has consolidated Democratic support, jumping from 36.7% to 63.8% among leaning Democratic voters.

In the U.S. Senate election, Republican Mike Rogers leads all three Democratic primary candidates within the margin of error. Rogers leads Abdul El-Sayed 44.7% to 39.8%, Haley Stevens 43.8% to 41.5%, and Mallory McMorrow 42.8% to 40.7%. Among definite voters, Rogers is essentially tied with both Stevens and McMorrow at 44%-44% and 43%-43% respectively. Between 67% and 74% of undecided U.S. Senate voters disapprove of Trump, suggesting the remaining undecided voters could break toward Democrats as the race develops.

Becerra Takes Lead in California Governor's Race Ahead of June 2 Primary

A new Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics survey of 1,000 likely California primary voters, conducted May 9-10 with a margin of error of +/- 3%, finds former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra leading the crowded governor's field for the first time, with the race for second place tightening between Tom Steyer and Trump-endorsed Steve Hilton. Becerra leads with 19%, followed closely by Hilton and Steyer each at 17%. Becerra's surge of nine points since mid-April is driven by consolidating Democratic support, with 31% of Democrats now backing him as their top choice. Hilton's support has remained flat, while Steyer has risen three points.

Cooper Leads Whatley in North Carolina’s U.S. Senate Race

A new Carolina Journal/Harper Polling survey of 600 likely North Carolina general election voters, conducted May 10-11 with a margin of error of +/- 4%, finds former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper holding a steady and growing lead in the U.S. Senate race against Republican Michael Whatley.

Cooper leads Whatley 49.8% to 38.7%, a wider margin than the 48.9% to 41.1% gap recorded in March. Cooper's favorability stands at 49.8% favorable to 38.5% unfavorable, while Whatley remains largely unknown, with 33.4% of voters saying they have never heard of him. President Trump's job approval in North Carolina has slipped to 41.5% approve and 56.6% disapprove, down from 44.8% in March and 49.4% last September.