BallotWire Briefs — Weekly Election Update (May 18-22)

Top Election Developments

A weekly recap of major election news: key race developments, candidate moves, and shifts that could shape upcoming contests.

Cassidy Ousted in Louisiana Primary, Becoming First GOP Senator to Lose Renomination in Nearly a Decade

U.S. Senator Bill Cassidy lost his bid for a third term in Louisiana's U.S. Senate Republican primary on May 16, becoming the first elected Republican senator to lose renomination since Richard Lugar in 2012. Trump-endorsed candidate U.S. Representative Julia Letlow led the primary field with 44.8% of the vote, followed by State Treasurer John Fleming at 28.3%, with Cassidy finishing a distant third at 24.8%. Since no candidate cleared the 50% threshold, Letlow and Fleming will face off in a June 27 runoff.

Cassidy's defeat was widely attributed to his 2021 vote to convict Trump during his second impeachment trial, a decision that made him a target for Trump's retribution ever since. Trump posted on Truth Social after the results that Cassidy's "disloyalty is now a part of legend, and it's nice to see that his political career is OVER."

Massie Ousted by Trump-Backed Gallrein in Kentucky Republican Primary

U.S. Representative Thomas Massie became the latest casualty in Trump's effort to purge Republican dissenters from Congress, losing his Republican primary in Kentucky's 4th congressional district to Ed Gallrein, a former Navy SEAL endorsed by President Trump. Gallrein won the primary with nearly 55% of the vote.

Massie fell into Trump's crosshairs after voting against the president’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, opposing the war in Iran, and pushing for the release of the Epstein files. Trump repeatedly targeted Massie leading up to the primary. Trump called Massie the “worst Republican Congressman in the long and fabled history of the United States Congress” on Truth Social a day before the primary. Gallrein advances to the November general election as a heavy favorite in the safely Republican district.

Trump Endorses Paxton Over Cornyn, Upending Texas U.S. Senate Runoff

President Trump endorsed Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton over incumbent U.S. Senator John Cornyn in the Texas U.S. Senate runoff, which will be held on May 26. The last-minute endorsement was a stunning blow to Cornyn, who finished first in the March primary and spent months lobbying for Trump's support.

The endorsement comes days after Trump helped oust U.S. Senator Bill Cassidy in Louisiana and U.S. Representative Thomas Massie in Kentucky, reinforcing his grip on Republican primaries. The move alarmed some Senate Republicans, who view Cornyn as the stronger general election candidate against Democratic nominee James Talarico in a state where polls have shown a surprisingly competitive race.

Cohen Retires After Republican Redistricting Carves Up His Memphis District

Tennessee U.S. Representative Steve Cohen announced on May 15 that he will not seek reelection after the Republican-led state legislature divided his majority-Black Memphis district into three Republican-leaning districts. Cohen said in a statement, “This morning I made public my decision not to run in any of the three gerrymandered congressional districts carved out of the 9th District I have represented for more than 19 years. The state General Assembly last week diluted the Black vote in thirds to make Republican victories likely.”  Cohen, 76, has represented Tennessee's 9th Congressional District since 2007 and is the state's only Democrat in Congress.

Pelosi Endorses Chan to Succeed Her in Congress

Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi endorsed San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan on May 18 in the race to succeed her in California's 11th congressional district, just two weeks before the June 2 primary. Pelosi had resisted endorsing for months before throwing her support to Chan, saying, "I know this district, I know the Congress, and I know Connie."

The endorsement could prove decisive in the battle for second place in the top-two primary. State Senator Scott Wiener leads the field by double digits, while Chan has been running neck and neck for the second spot with Saikat Chakrabarti, the co-founder of the Justice Democrats. A recent EMC Research poll showed Wiener leading with 38% support, followed by Chan at 22% and Chakrabarti at 21%.

Campaign Cash Tracker

Latest campaign finance highlights: top fundraising hauls, war chests, and trends shaping key races.

Senate Majority PAC Commits $30 Million to Defend Georgia and New Hampshire U.S. Senate Seats

The Senate Majority PAC announced on May 18 a combined $30 million in television reservations to defend Democratic-held U.S. Senate seats in Georgia and New Hampshire, the latest sign that both races are shaping up as top battlegrounds this fall.

In Georgia, the PAC committed $20 million to support incumbent U.S. Senator Jon Ossoff against his eventual Republican opponent. The Georgia Republican primary remains a race between U.S. Representative Mike Collins and former football coach Derek Dooley. Polls have found Ossoff holding a steady edge over both candidates.

In New Hampshire, the PAC committed $10.2 million to support Democratic U.S. Representative Chris Pappas against either Republican Scott Brown or John Sununu, who are locked in a competitive primary of their own.

State & Local Spotlight

Coverage of notable state and local election events that may indicate broader political trends or influence higher-profile races.

Jones and Jackson Head to June 16 Runoff in Georgia Republican Governor Primary

Georgia Lt. Governor Burt Jones and healthcare billionaire Rick Jackson advanced to a June 16 runoff for Georgia governor, after neither candidate cleared the 50% threshold needed to win outright in the primary. Jones finished first with roughly 38.4% of the vote and Jackson second at 32.5%, eliminating Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger and Attorney General Chris Carr from the race. Jones enters the runoff with Trump's endorsement and deep roots in Georgia politics, while Jackson has spent $50 million of his own money to win the primary. The winner of the runoff will face Democratic nominee and former Atlanta mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms in November.

Tuberville and Jones Win Alabama Governor Primaries, Setting Up November Rematch

Alabama held its gubernatorial primaries on May 19, producing a general election rematch between two familiar faces. Trump-endorsed Republican U.S. Senator Tommy Tuberville won the GOP primary with nearly 86% of the vote to succeed term-limited Governor Kay Ivey, while former U.S. Senator Doug Jones won the Democratic primary with 78% of the vote.

The November matchup is a rematch of the 2020 U.S. Senate race, which Tuberville won by 20 points, making him a heavy favorite in the deep-red state. Jones, who famously won a 2017 U.S. Senate special election before losing to Tuberville, enters the general election as the underdog but is seen as the strongest Democratic candidate the party could field in Alabama.

Duggan Ends Independent Michigan Governor Bid, Clearing the Field for Benson and James

Former Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan announced Thursday that he is ending his independent campaign for Michigan governor, citing a political environment that has sharply shifted toward Democrats and his inability to build a competitive national fundraising base. Duggan, a lifelong Democrat who left the party in late 2024 to run as an independent, said he was trailing by 11 points in internal polling and falling behind in fundraising despite raising more in-state than any other candidate in the race.

In a recent Glengariff Group poll, Duggan held 23% support, behind Democrat Jocelyn Benson at 34.2% and Republican John James at 29.2%. His exit effectively consolidates the race into a two-way general election contest, giving Democrats a cleaner path in what is already shaping up as one of the most competitive governor's races of the cycle.

Data & Polling Roundup

New polling and data insights on the current electoral landscape and emerging trends.

Lander Leads Goldman by 34 Points in NY-10; NY-07 and NY-12 Remain Wide Open

New Emerson College Polling/PIX11 surveys of likely Democratic primary voters, conducted May 16-17, find sharply different landscapes across three New York City congressional primaries ahead of the June primary.

NY-07: Assembly Member Claire Valdez leads with 23%, followed closely by Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso at 21% and City Councilor Julie Won at 13%, with 43% of voters still undecided in the race to succeed retiring U.S. Representative Nydia Velázquez. The margin of error is +/- 5.2%.

NY-10: Former Comptroller Brad Lander holds a commanding 34-point lead over incumbent U.S. Representative Dan Goldman, 57% to 23%, with 20% undecided. Lander's advantage is most pronounced among voters under 40, who back him 73% to 15% over Goldman. The margin of error is +/- 4.6%.

NY-12: Assemblyman Micah Lasher leads narrowly with 22%, followed by Assemblyman Alex Bores at 20%, Jack Schlossberg at 11%, and lawyer George Conway at 10%, with 32% undecided, in the race to succeed retiring Democratic U.S. Representative Jerry Nadler. The margin of error is +/- 4.8%.

Across all three districts, Democratic primary voters described the economy as poor and expressed broad dissatisfaction with the country's direction, reflecting the anti-Republican headwinds shaping the 2026 midterm environment.

Collins Holds Commanding Lead in Georgia U.S. Senate Runoff; Governor's Race Much Tighter

A new Quantus Insights snap poll of 782 likely Republican primary voters in Georgia, conducted May 20 with a margin of error of +/- 3.9%, shows two very different dynamics emerging in the June 16 runoff races.

In the U.S. Senate runoff, U.S. Representative Mike Collins holds a sizable lead over former football coach Derek Dooley, leading 53.5% to 37.2%, while 9.3% of voters remain undecided.

Meanwhile, the Republican gubernatorial runoff appears far more competitive. Trump-backed Lt. Governor Burt Jones leads businessman Rick Jackson by a much narrower margin, 46.4% to 44.1%, with 9.5% of voters still undecided.

South Dakota Republican Governor Primary Wide Open as Doeden Surges to Lead

A new Emerson College Polling/KELOLAND survey of 432 likely Republican primary voters in South Dakota, conducted May 18-19 with a margin of error of +/- 4.7%, finds a tight three-way race for governor with no candidate near the 35% threshold needed to avoid a runoff.

Businessman Toby Doeden leads with 26%, followed by U.S. Representative Dusty Johnson at 23% and incumbent Governor Larry Rhoden at 19%, with 15% still undecided. Doeden has surged eight points since last month, driven largely by strong support from voters over 70, while Johnson has dropped five points but holds a commanding 38% among voters under 40.

The broader political picture in South Dakota is notable. Governor Rhoden holds just a 26% job approval rating, while both U.S. Senator John Thune and U.S. Representative Johnson are underwater with South Dakota voters. Two-thirds of voters, 67%, would oppose former Governor Kristi Noem running for office in the state again. President Trump holds a 53% job approval in the state. South Dakota's Republican primary is scheduled for June 2.