BallotWire Briefs — Weekly Election Update (May 25-29)

Top Election Developments

A weekly recap of major election news: key race developments, candidate moves, and shifts that could shape upcoming contests.

Paxton Defeats Cornyn in Texas Senate Runoff, Setting Up Competitive November Race

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton defeated four-term U.S. Senator John Cornyn in the Texas U.S. Senate Republican primary runoff on Tuesday, winning with 63.8% of the vote. The result ends Cornyn's 24-year U.S. Senate career and sets up a general election matchup between Paxton and Democratic State Representative James Talarico in what could become a key race in the fight for U.S. Senate control.

Trump endorsed Paxton just one week before Election Day, giving him a last-minute boost that proved decisive. Cornyn and his allies, including U.S. Senate Republican leadership, had spent months lobbying for Trump's backing and arguing that Paxton's history of scandals, made him a weaker general election candidate.

Democrats have made no secret of their preference for Paxton as the Republican nominee, believing he can be beaten by Talarico, who would be by far the best-funded and most prominent opponent Paxton has faced running statewide. Recent polls have shown Talarico leading Paxton in hypothetical general election matchups, making Texas a potential pickup opportunity for Democrats in their bid to retake the U.S. Senate majority.

South Carolina Senate Blocks Redistricting Effort, Preserving Clyburn's Seat for 2026

The Republican-led South Carolina Senate voted Tuesday to kill a proposed new congressional map for 2026, dealing a surprise defeat to President Trump, who had personally urged lawmakers to pass the redrawn map. The redistricting push was part of a broader Republican effort across the South following the U.S. Supreme Court's April 29 ruling in Louisiana v. Callais, which weakened the Voting Rights Act and gave states more flexibility to redraw congressional maps.

Several Republicans broke with their party and joined Democrats to block the effort, citing concerns that the process had moved too late in the election cycle, with more than 32,000 South Carolinians already having cast early ballots ahead of the June 9 primary.

The proposed map would have eliminated the state's only Democratic-held congressional seat, currently represented by longtime U.S. Representative Jim Clyburn, potentially giving Republicans all seven of South Carolina's House seats. South Carolina lawmakers are not expected to return to session until June 10, effectively shelving the proposal for 2026, though Republicans could still pursue a new map for the 2028 elections.

Federal Court Blocks Alabama's Republican-Drawn Congressional Map, State Appeals to Supreme Court

On Tuesday, a three-judge panel in the U.S. District Court in Birmingham temporarily blocked Alabama from using the congressional map adopted by state lawmakers in 2023, ruling that the plan "intentionally discriminated based on race" by including only one Black-majority district.

Alabama had moved to reinstate the 2023 map following the U.S. Supreme Court's April 29 ruling in Louisiana v. Callais. The three-judge panel ruled that the 2023 map still violated the Constitution's equal protection guarantee, regardless of the Callais ruling. The court ordered the state to continue using its 2024 court-ordered map, which includes two majority-Black districts. Republicans had hoped the new map would give them a shot at flipping the seat held by Democratic U.S. Representative Shomari Figures in Alabama's 2nd Congressional District.

The State of Alabama filed an emergency appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court on Wednesday to pause the lower-court ruling, setting up another high-stakes showdown at the nation's highest court that could determine whether Alabama uses the 2023 or 2024 map for November's midterms.

Menefee and Allred Prevail in Texas Democratic Primary Runoffs

Republican-led congressional redistricting in Texas produced two notable Democratic primary runoffs on Tuesday, forcing unusual matchups that pitted sitting and former members of Congress against each other.

Texas 18th Congressional District: U.S. Representative Christian Menefee defeated U.S. Representative Al Green with 69.4% of the vote in a rare incumbent-on-incumbent matchup forced by the Republican-drawn map that moved a large portion of Green's 9th District into the newly configured 18th. Menefee, who only entered Congress earlier this year after winning a special election to fill the seat vacated by the late U.S. Representative Sylvester Turner, advances to face Republican Ronald Whitfield in November in the safely Democratic Houston-area district.

Texas 33rd Congressional District: Former U.S. Representative Colin Allred defeated incumbent U.S. Representative Julie Johnson in the Dallas-area 33rd District, completing a political comeback after losing his 2024 U.S. Senate race against Ted Cruz. The race was an unusual matchup between a congresswoman and her own predecessor, as Republican redistricting pushed Johnson out of her 32nd District into the newly drawn 33rd. Allred is heavily favored in November against Republican Patrick David Gillespie.

State & Local Spotlight

Coverage of notable state and local election events that may indicate broader political trends or influence higher-profile races.

Newsom Signs Election Protection Law Days Before California's June Primary

California Governor Gavin Newsom signed Senate Bill 73 on Wednesday, strengthening the state's election protections just days before the June 2 primary in response to what he called growing threats of federal interference from the Trump administration.

The law prohibits unauthorized access or seizure of voter rolls and voting technology by law enforcement, including federal agents, without a court order, restricts officers from interfering with election workers, and makes it a crime punishable by up to three years in prison to knowingly remove voted ballots from election officials.

Newsom framed the legislation as a direct counter to Trump's executive order on mail-in voting, and the administration's deployment of federal personnel near election sites.

Middleton Defeats Roy in Texas Attorney General Republican Runoff

Texas State Senator Mayes Middleton defeated U.S. Representative Chip Roy in the Republican primary runoff for Texas Attorney General on Tuesday, winning 55.2% to 44.8%. Middleton, an oil company president and former chair of the Texas House Freedom Caucus, successfully cast himself as the more loyal MAGA candidate despite President Trump staying on the sidelines in the race.

Middleton will now face Democratic State Senator Nathan Johnson in November for the seat being vacated by Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who won the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate on Tuesday.

Data & Polling Roundup

New polling and data insights on the current electoral landscape and emerging trends.

Platner Leads Collins by 9 Points in Maine U.S. Senate Race

A new University of New Hampshire Pine Tree State poll of 1,397 Maine likely voters, conducted May 21-25 with a margin of error of +/- 2.6%, shows Democratic candidate Graham Platner holding a commanding lead over incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Susan Collins. Platner leads Collins 51% to 42%, with 6% undecided and 2% preferring another candidate. The nine-point lead is consistent with a separate Pan Atlantic Research survey released last week that showed Platner ahead 48% to 41%. Collins holds a narrow edge among independent voters at 47% to 44%, while Platner leads by 11 points among moderates and 20 points among women.

South Carolina GOP Governor Primary Remains Wide Open

A new Trafalgar Group poll of 1,125 likely South Carolina Republican primary voters, conducted May 21-24 with a margin of error of +/- 2.9%, finds the gubernatorial primary highly competitive with less than two weeks until the June 9 primary.

The primary field is essentially deadlocked among the top four candidates, with Lt. Governor Pamela Evette leading narrowly at 19.9%, followed closely by Attorney General Alan Wilson at 19.4%, businessman Rom Reddy at 19.0%, and U.S. Representative Ralph Norman at 15.9%. U.S. Representative Nancy Mace trails at 14.6%, with 5.6% still undecided. With no candidate near the 50% threshold needed to avoid a runoff, the race is almost certain to extend to a June 23 runoff.

Bass, Raman, and Pratt Locked in Three-Way Tie for LA Mayor Days Before Primary

A new UC Berkeley/Los Angeles Times poll of 1,351 likely Los Angeles voters, conducted May 19-24 with a margin of error of +/- 3%, finds an extraordinarily tight three-way race for mayor of Los Angeles just days before the June 2 primary. Incumbent Mayor Karen Bass leads with 26%, followed by City Councilmember Nithya Raman at 25% and former reality TV personality Spencer Pratt at 22. Both Raman and Pratt gained eight points since March, dramatically tightening what was once a more comfortable Bass lead.

Under Los Angeles election rules, if no candidate clears 50%, the top two finishers advance to a November runoff, making the real contest on June 2 as much about second place as first. Governor Gavin Newsom endorsed Bass Thursday morning, potentially giving a boost to her campaign.