BallotWire Briefs — Weekly Election Update (May 4-8)

BallotWire delivers data-driven coverage of U.S. elections at every level—federal, state, and local. We track results, trends, and shifts beyond the headlines.

Top Election Developments

A summary of the most significant election news from the week, including major race developments, candidate activity, and changes that may determine upcoming contests.

Tennessee Becomes First State to Redraw Maps After Supreme Court Voting Rights Ruling

Tennessee's Republican-led state legislature passed a new congressional map on May 7, and Governor Bill Lee signed it into law the same day, making Tennessee the first state to act following the U.S. Supreme Court's ruling weakening the Voting Rights Act. The new map dismantles the state's only majority-Black district, centered in Memphis and held by longtime Democratic U.S. Representative Steve Cohen, splitting it into three separate districts. Democratic voters would be spread into more rural, Republican-leaning areas, putting Republicans in position to achieve a 9-0 advantage in Tennessee's congressional delegation. Tennessee is among several Republican-led Southern states moving quickly to take advantage of the Supreme Court's ruling, with additional redistricting efforts expected in the coming weeks.

Virginia Supreme Court Blocks Democratic Congressional Map

The Virginia Supreme Court ruled 4-3 on May 8 to block the Democratic-drawn congressional map narrowly approved by voters in the April 21 referendum, finding that Democratic lawmakers did not follow the required constitutional procedures to place the amendment on the ballot. The ruling delivers a significant boost to Republicans defending their narrow U.S. House majority, and effectively neutralizes one of Democrats' key counter-moves to Republican mid-decade redistricting efforts in states like Texas and Tennessee. The Democratic-backed map would have shifted Virginia's congressional split to as many as 10-1 in Democrats' favor, potentially flipping four Republican-held seats. Democrats could still appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court, though it remains unclear whether they will.

Brown and Ramaswamy Win Ohio Primaries, Setting Up Marquee November Matchups

Ohio held its primary elections on Tuesday, May 5, setting up two of the most closely watched races of the 2026 cycle.

Ohio Governor: In the Republican gubernatorial primary, Vivek Ramaswamy won decisively, taking more than 80% of the vote. Ramaswamy will now face Democrat Amy Acton in November. Acton faced no opposition in the Democratic primary and has energized Democrats with strong fundraising and favorable polling, raising hopes of reclaiming Ohio’s governor’s office for the first time since 2006. A recent Bowling Green State University poll showed Ramaswamy holding just a one-point edge over Acton, 48% to 47%, in the general election.

U.S. Senate: Former U.S. Senator Sherrod Brown won the Democratic U.S. Senate primary and will face incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Jon Husted in November. Husted was unopposed in his primary. Brown, who narrowly lost reelection in 2024, is aiming to win the seat by leaning on his past electoral strength among working-class voters. Husted holds a slight 50% to 47% lead over Brown in recent polling. With Democrats needing four seats to regain the U.S. Senate, Ohio is a top pickup target.

Stabenow Endorses Stevens in Michigan U.S. Senate Democratic Primary

Former U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow endorsed U.S. Representative Haley Stevens in Michigan's Democratic U.S. Senate primary on Wednesday. Stabenow cited Stevens' long record working for Michigan, including her role as President Obama's chief of staff for the auto rescue, and argued she is the strongest candidate to defeat Republican Mike Rogers in November. Stevens is competing against State Senator Mallory McMorrow, and former public health official Abdul El-Sayed in the primary. A recent Emerson College/WOOD-TV poll showed Abdul El-Sayed and State Senator Mallory McMorrow tied for the lead at 24% each in the primary, with Stevens trailing at 13%, while 36% of voters remain undecided.

State & Local Spotlight

Coverage of notable state and local election events that may indicate broader political trends or influence higher-profile races.

Greene Wins Michigan State Senate Special Election, Democrats Retain Chamber Control

Democrat Chedrick Greene won Michigan’s 35th Senate District special election on May 5, defeating Republican Jason Tunney 59% to 39% and keeping Democrats in control of the state Senate with a 20-18 majority. The seat had been vacant since former state senator Kristen McDonald Rivet was sworn into the U.S. House in January 2025. The closely watched race was widely viewed as an early indicator of voter sentiment ahead of Michigan’s high-stakes November midterms, where competitive contests for both U.S. Senate and governor are expected to play a major role in determining the state’s political direction.

Indiana Republican State Senators Ousted After Defying Trump

In Indiana's May 5 Republican primaries, six Trump-backed challengers ousted incumbent state senators who had voted against his congressional redistricting plan last year. The redistricting proposal sought to redraw Indiana's congressional map ahead of the 2026 elections to further strengthen Republican control of the state's U.S. House delegation. Trevor De Vries defeated Dan Dernulc in District 1, James Starkey defeated Rick Niemeyer in District 6, Brian Schmutzler defeated Linda Rogers in District 11, Blake Fiechter defeated Travis Holdman in District 19, Tracey Powell defeated Jim Buck in District 21, and Michelle Davis defeated Greg Walker in District 41. Republican leaders are widely expected to revive the redistricting effort when the legislature reconvenes, potentially adding GOP-friendly congressional seats ahead of the 2028 elections.

 Data & Polling Roundup

An overview of newly released polling and data understandings that help contextualize the current electoral landscape and emerging trends.

Bottoms Leads Georgia Democratic Governor Primary

A new Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll of 1,000 likely Democratic primary voters, conducted April 23-29 by the University of Georgia with a margin of error of +/- 3.1%, shows former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms holding a commanding lead in the Georgia Democratic  gubernatorial primary ahead of the May 19 election. Bottoms leads with 39%, far ahead of Michael Thurmond at 10%, Jason Esteves at 8%, and Geoff Duncan at 7%. About one-third of voters remain undecided, leaving open the question of whether Bottoms can clear the 50% threshold needed to avoid a June runoff.

Paxton Leads Cornyn by 3 Points in Texas U.S. Senate Republican Primary Runoff

A new University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs survey of 1,200 likely Republican primary runoff voters, conducted April 28 to May 1 with a margin of error of +/- 2.83%, finds a tight race in the Texas U.S. Senate Republican runoff heading into the May 26 election. Attorney General Ken Paxton leads incumbent U.S. Senator John Cornyn 48% to 45%, with 7% still undecided. When asked who the stronger general election candidate against Democrat James Talarico would be, voters are evenly split at 43% each.

Hochul's Lead Over Blakeman Grows to 16 Points

A new Siena College poll of 806 New York registered voters, conducted April 27-30 with a margin of error of +/- 4.2%, finds Democratic New York Governor Kathy Hochul's personal ratings at their lowest levels in about a year, even as her lead over Republican challenger Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman has widened.

Hochul's favorability rating dropped 8 points to 41-46%, her lowest since June 2025, and her job approval fell 8 points to 48-44%, her lowest since April 2025. Despite the slippage, her lead over Blakeman grew 3 points to 49-33%, as 64% of voters still have no opinion of him. Democrats back Hochul three-to-one while Republicans back Blakeman by a similar margin, with independents tilting toward Blakeman by just 2 points, down from 7 points in March.

In the broader political environment, Democrats hold a 52-33% lead on the generic congressional ballot, little changed from March. Trump's favorability in New York stands at 33-64%, with his numbers falling most sharply among Republicans, whose favorable rating dropped from 78% to 65% in a single month.