Illustration: BallotWire
By BallotWire
08/07/2026
Top Election Developments
A weekly recap of major election news: key race developments, candidate moves, and shifts that could shape upcoming contests.
El-Sayed Narrowly Defeats Stevens in Michigan U.S. Senate Primary, Delivering Progressives a Marquee Win
Abdul El-Sayed defeated U.S. Representative Haley Stevens in Michigan's Democratic U.S. Senate primary on August 4, winning 48.5% to 47.5%, a margin of roughly 15,000 votes out of nearly 1.5 million cast. State Senator Mallory McMorrow, who dropped out on July 5 but remained on the ballot, drew about 4% and endorsed El-Sayed early Wednesday.
The victory delivers the party's progressive wing one of its biggest wins of the cycle, though the narrow margin came as a surprise after public and private polling had shown El-Sayed with a double-digit lead heading into election day. El-Sayed, a former Wayne County health director, campaigned on Medicare for All, campaign finance reform, and ending military aid to Israel.
El-Sayed will face former U.S. Representative Mike Rogers in the general in what is expected to be among the most competitive and expensive U.S. Senate races in the country. Rogers, who ran unopposed in the Republican primary, is making his second consecutive U.S. Senate bid after losing to U.S. Senator Elissa Slotkin in 2024 by roughly 19,000 votes, or about a third of a percentage point, even as Trump carried Michigan by 1.4 points.
No Republican has won a Michigan U.S. Senate seat since 1994, but the seat is widely rated a toss-up and represents the GOP's best pickup opportunity of the cycle. Democrats consider it a must-win to have any realistic path to flipping the U.S. Senate.
Pearson Wins Democratic Primary in Tennessee's Redrawn 9th District
State Representative Justin J. Pearson won the Democratic primary for Tennessee's newly redrawn 9th Congressional District on August 6 with 65.7% of the vote, defeating State Senator London Lamar, community activist M. LaTroy Alexandria-Williams, and physician Jim Torino. The victory marks another milestone in Pearson's rapid political ascent. Just three years ago, he gained national attention as one of the "Tennessee Three," the Democratic lawmakers expelled from the Tennessee State House after participating in a gun control protest following the Covenant School shooting.
The race also unfolded against the backdrop of one of the nation's most closely watched redistricting battles. Republican lawmakers approved a new congressional map in May that dismantled the longtime majority-Black Memphis-based district, redistributing its voters among three Republican-leaning districts. The redrawn map prompted longtime U.S. Representative Steve Cohen to retire after nearly two decades in Congress. Legal challenges seeking to block the new boundaries were unsuccessful following recent Supreme Court decisions that weakened Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act.
Pearson will face Republican State Senator Brent Taylor in the November general election. Unlike the heavily Democratic district previously represented by Cohen, the redesigned 9th District now leans Republican, giving Democrats a much more difficult path to holding the seat.
Ogles Loses Tennessee U.S. House Primary
Republican U.S. Representative Andy Ogles was defeated in the August 6 Republican primary for Tennessee's 5th Congressional District, losing to former Tennessee Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Hatcher despite securing President Donald Trump's endorsement, which the president reaffirmed on Election Day. Hatcher prevailed with 53.2% of the vote.
Several factors contributed to Ogles' defeat. Hatcher consolidated much of the Tennessee Republican establishment behind him, picking up endorsements from Governor Bill Lee and former Governor Bill Haslam. The state's mid-decade redistricting also reshaped the 5th District, adding more agriculture-oriented communities that played directly to Hatcher's background as the state's former agriculture commissioner.
Ogles also entered the race with a record of Islamophobic rhetoric, including statements that Muslims do not belong in American society and calls to revoke New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani's U.S. citizenship.
McKinney Ousts Thanedar in Michigan's 13th District Democratic Primary
Michigan State Representative Donavan McKinney unseated two-term U.S. Representative Shri Thanedar in the Democratic primary for Michigan's 13th Congressional District on August 4, winning 51.9% to 48.1% by approximately 4,200 votes out of more than 112,000 cast.
McKinney, a 34-year-old lifelong Detroiter, ran to Thanedar's left, campaigning on support for a Green New Deal, removing corporate money from politics, and ending U.S. military aid and arms sales to Israel. But the outcome reflected more than ideological differences. McKinney's deep roots in Detroit, his record in the Michigan Legislature, growing concerns among some Democrats about Thanedar's effectiveness, and the opportunity to restore Black representation in the district all contributed to his victory.
McKinney will face Republican Taras Nykoriak in the November general election and is heavily favored to hold the safely Democratic district.
Bell Defeats Bush Again in Missouri's 1st District Democratic Primary
U.S. Representative Wesley Bell defeated former U.S. Representative Cori Bush 59.2% to 36.9% in the Democratic primary for Missouri's 1st Congressional District on August 4, decisively winning a rematch of their closely contested 2024 race. Bell's margin of victory was far larger than the roughly six-point difference that separated the two candidates two years earlier.
The contest was the most expensive U.S. House primary in Missouri this election cycle, fueled by millions of dollars in outside spending. The United Democracy Project, a political action committee affiliated with AIPAC, spent approximately $3.1 million opposing Bush alone. The outcome also contrasted with results elsewhere in the country, where several progressive challengers scored high-profile primary victories on Tuesday, highlighting the varied dynamics shaping Democratic primaries across different states and districts.
Bell will face Republican Paul Berry III and Libertarian Tom Schmitz in the November general election.
Masterson and Holscher Win Kansas Governor Primaries, Setting Up November Race
Kansas voters selected their gubernatorial nominees on August 4, with Trump-endorsed State Senate President Ty Masterson winning the Republican primary with 43.2% of the vote in a crowded seven-candidate field. Masterson finished well ahead of businessman Phil Sarnecki, Insurance Commissioner Vicki Schmidt, and Secretary of State Scott Schwab.
On the Democratic side, State Senator Cindy Holscher secured the nomination with 48.8% of the vote, defeating fellow State Senator Ethan Corson, who received 38.7%, and Overland Park Mayor Curt Skoog, who finished with 12.5%.
With Democratic Governor Laura Kelly unable to seek reelection because of term limits, Republicans view the open seat as one of their best gubernatorial pickup opportunities in November.
Blackburn and Green Win Tennessee Governor Primaries, Guaranteeing State's First Woman Governor
Tennessee voters selected their major-party nominees for governor on August 6, setting up a historic November election that will guarantee the state elects its first female governor.
On the Republican side, U.S. Senator Marsha Blackburn won the nomination with 43.4% of the vote, defeating U.S. Representative John Rose, who received 32.9%, and State Representative Monty Fritts, who finished with 23.4%. Blackburn, a prominent conservative and longtime ally of President Donald Trump, was first elected to the U.S. Senate in 2018. If elected governor, she would resign her Senate seat before the end of her term.
Democrats nominated Memphis City Councilwoman Jerri Green, who captured 69.0% of the vote and defeated her nearest opponent by more than 180,000 votes. Green, a first-term councilwoman from Memphis, has campaigned as a pragmatic, common-sense Democrat, emphasizing her experience in local government and her focus on issues such as education, economic opportunity, and public safety.
DCCC Expands Target Map to 58 Districts
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee expanded its "Districts in Play" target list on August 5, adding 12 Republican-held districts and increasing its target map to 58 seats ahead of the November election. The committee said the expanded list reflects its belief that a wider range of Republican-held districts has become competitive.
Among the newly targeted incumbents are U.S. Representative Lauren Boebert in Colorado's 4th District, U.S. Representative Victoria Spartz in Indiana's 5th District, U.S. Representative French Hill in Arkansas' 2nd District, and National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman U.S. Representative Richard Hudson in North Carolina's 9th District.
Campaign Cash Tracker
Latest campaign finance highlights: top fundraising hauls, war chests, and trends shaping key races.
Hinojosa Launches First Cable Ad Buy in Texas Governor's Race
Democratic gubernatorial nominee Gina Hinojosa launched a $340,000 statewide cable ad campaign on August 4, her first television buy of the general election against Republican Governor Greg Abbott, who is seeking a historic fourth term. The buy brings her total campaign spending to nearly $1 million.
The ads lean into a populist message centered on billionaire and corporate influence over state government, with supporters accusing Abbott of prioritizing wealthy donors over Texans. Recent polling has shown Abbott leading Hinojosa by roughly six to seven points, with more than half of voters saying they have not heard enough about her, making the early ad campaign an effort to close that name recognition gap.
Data & Polling Roundup
New polling and data insights on the current electoral landscape and emerging trends.
Sand Leads Iowa Governor's Race; Hinson Holds Narrow Senate Edge
A new Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey of 712 likely Iowa voters, conducted August 2-4 with a credibility interval of +/- 3.7%, finds both of the state's top races competitive heading into November.
In the governor's race, Democratic State Auditor Rob Sand leads Republican Zach Lahn 48% to 43%, with 7% undecided. In the U.S. Senate race, Republican Representative Ashley Hinson holds a narrow edge over Democratic State Representative Josh Turek, 48% to 45%, with 6% undecided.
Independent voters are driving Democratic competitiveness, breaking for Sand by 26 points and Turek by 11 points, a notable shift in a group that backed Trump by roughly 17 points in Emerson's final 2024 Iowa poll. About one in ten Trump voters say they would support Sand.
Both Trump and Governor Kim Reynolds are underwater in the state, with Trump at 43% approve to 51% disapprove and Reynolds at 44% to 47%. Sand posts the highest favorability of any statewide candidate at 51%, followed by Hinson at 44%, Turek at 42%, and Lahn at 36%. The economy is the top issue at 38%, followed by healthcare at 19%.
Talarico Edges Paxton in Texas U.S. Senate Race; Abbott Leads Hinojosa by 6
A new Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center poll of 1,200 likely Texas voters, conducted July 27-30 with a margin of error of +/- 2.83%, finds a tight Senate race and Republicans leading across the rest of the statewide ballot.
In the U.S. Senate race, Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton 47% to 45%, with 2% backing Libertarian Ted Brown and 6% undecided. Paxton is the most unpopular candidate tested, viewed unfavorably by 57% of likely voters, and only 85% of Republicans currently say they will vote for him, compared to 97% of Democrats behind Talarico. Talarico leads among women by 17 points, voters under 35 by 30 points, Latino voters by 19 points, and Black voters by 67 points, while Paxton leads among men by 14 points and voters 55 and older by 18 points.
In the governor's race, Republican Governor Greg Abbott leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa 49% to 43%. Abbott is universally known but underwater at 48% favorable to 51% unfavorable, while 35% of voters still do not know enough about Hinojosa to form an opinion. Notably, Hinojosa posts the best net favorability of any candidate tested.
Republicans lead the remaining statewide races, though all remain competitive with large undecided blocs. Dan Patrick leads Vikki Goodwin 46% to 39% for lieutenant governor, Mayes Middleton leads Nathan Johnson 46% to 41% for attorney general, Don Huffines leads Sarah Eckhardt 46% to 39% for comptroller, Dawn Buckingham leads Benjamin Flores 45% to 40% for land commissioner, and Bo French leads Jon Rosenthal 44% to 41% for railroad commissioner. President Trump is viewed favorably by 44% of Texas likely voters and unfavorably by 55%.