Illustration: BallotWire
By BallotWire
07/31/2026
Top Election Developments
A weekly recap of major election news: key race developments, candidate moves, and shifts that could shape upcoming contests.
Scott and Blair Head to Runoff in Georgia 13th District Special Election
Georgia's 13th Congressional District held a special election on July 28 to fill the seat left vacant by the death of longtime U.S. Representative David Scott, who died in April at age 80 after serving 12 terms in Congress. Marcye Scott, the late congressman's daughter, led the six-candidate field with 46.0% of the vote, followed by former Gwinnett County School Board Chairman Everton Blair Jr. at 37.4%. With no candidate clearing the 50% threshold, the two advanced to an August 25 runoff, where the winner will serve out the remainder of Scott's term through January 2027.
The special election is separate from the contest for the full two-year term that begins in January 2027. State Representative Jasmine Clark won that Democratic nomination with 56% of the vote in the May primary and will face Republican Jonathan Chavez in November. The 13th District, which covers parts of the Atlanta suburbs, is safely Democratic, meaning Clark is heavily favored to win the seat.
Rhoden Cruises to Victory in South Dakota's First-Ever Runoff Election
South Dakota held the state's first gubernatorial runoff election on July 28 after no Republican candidate reached the 35% threshold required to win the June 2 Republican primary outright under a 1985 state law. The runoff determined the Republican nominee for governor, with incumbent Governor Larry Rhoden seeking his first full four-year term after succeeding Kristi Noem in January 2025 when she resigned to serve as U.S. secretary of Homeland Security.
Rhoden defeated businessman Toby Doeden 71% to 29% to secure the Republican nomination. He carried 64 of South Dakota's 66 counties, while Doeden won only Fall River and Todd counties.
The runoff followed a four-way primary in which Doeden led with about 31% of the vote, Rhoden received 25%, U.S. Representative Dusty Johnson finished with 23%, and state House Speaker Jon Hansen earned 21%. Rhoden appeared to consolidate support from the eliminated Johnson and Hansen voters, turning his first-round deficit into a 42-point landslide victory.
Rhoden will face Democratic nominee Dan Ahlers in the November 3 general election.
DNC Panel Proposes 2028 Calendar, Keeping South Carolina First and Adding a Sixth Early State
The DNC's Rules and Bylaws Committee voted on July 24 to recommend a six-state early window for the 2028 Democratic presidential nominating calendar, keeping South Carolina in the lead-off position and expanding the early lineup beyond previous cycles. Under the proposal, South Carolina would hold its primary on January 22, 2028, followed by Nevada on February 1, New Hampshire on February 8, New Mexico on February 15, Michigan on February 22, and Virginia on February 29, ahead of Super Tuesday.
South Carolina's lead-off slot carries significant weight, as the winner of its primary has captured the Democratic nomination in nearly every contested cycle since 1992, including Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, and Joe Biden. The committee amended its earlier procedures to allow a sixth state, citing a large number of strong applications, and framed the lineup as the most diverse open-field early window in party history, prominently featuring the battlegrounds of Nevada and Michigan.
The proposal marks a notable reshuffling, elevating New Mexico and Virginia into the early window while Iowa, which sought a return, was left off the sanctioned calendar entirely. The RBC's recommendation now goes before the full DNC for a final vote at its summer meeting August 13-15.
McConnell Remains Sidelined Six Weeks After Hospitalization, Still Not Cleared to Return
U.S. Senator Mitch McConnell has still not been medically cleared to return to work more than six weeks after he was hospitalized, the office of the attending physician of Congress said on July 27. The 84-year-old Kentucky Republican has not been seen in public since June 14, when he was hospitalized following a fall at his Washington home. The prolonged absence has drawn calls for greater transparency, and Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear has pressed McConnell's office for more details about his condition, including his ability to speak. McConnell, who stepped down as U.S. Senate GOP leader at the start of this Congress and is serving out his final term after announcing he will not seek reelection in 2026, has faced a series of health scares in recent years. It remains unclear when he will return to the U.S. Senate.
Campaign Cash Tracker
Latest campaign finance highlights: top fundraising hauls, war chests, and trends shaping key races.
DSCC Announces $40 Million "Win The Senate" Investment Across Ten Battleground States
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee announced a $40 million investment on July 28 in its Win The Senate program, targeting ten battleground states as Democrats look to flip control of the chamber in November. The program covers Alaska, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Texas, with the committee noting that additional states and funding could be added as the cycle continues.
The money will fund on-the-ground field staff, offices and infrastructure, field training programs to expand volunteer capacity, and voter protection staff. It also supports state-run outreach programs aimed at Latino, Black, AAPI, Alaska Native, and younger voters, along with communications and research staff focused on defining and holding Republican U.S. Senate candidates accountable.
Explore every 2026 U.S. Senate race and build your own path to the majority with the BallotWire 2026 U.S. Senate Interactive Election Dashboard.
Pro-Graham Super PAC Launches $900,000 Ad Blitz Ahead of South Carolina U.S. Senate Special Primary
Security is Strength PAC, a South Carolina-focused super PAC, announced a $900,000 statewide media campaign in support of U.S. Senator Darline Graham Nordone ahead of the August 11 special Republican primary for the seat held by her late brother, U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham. On July 24, the group rolled out a new television ad, "Carry On," that features President Trump praising the late senator and stresses that Nordone would continue his conservative legacy with Trump's "complete and total endorsement."
The effort includes television, direct mail, targeted text messaging, and high-frequency digital advertising, and centers on Nordone's family ties to her brother, affordability, and support for Trump's border and energy agenda. Nordone, who was sworn in on July 14 as the first woman to represent South Carolina in the Senate, carries endorsements from Trump and U.S. Senator Tom Cotton.
The spending underscores the compressed and expensive nature of the special primary, in which Nordone faces a crowded field that includes U.S. Representative Ralph Norman, Russell Fry and former Governor Mark Sanford. A runoff, if no candidate clears 50%, would be held August 25, with the winner facing Democratic nominee Dr. Annie Andrews in November.
Jackson Launches Record $87 Million Ad Buy in Georgia Governor's Race
Republican gubernatorial nominee Rick Jackson announced a massive $87 million ad buy on July 27, the largest single general-election ad purchase in the Georgia governor's race and possibly the largest in state history. The television and digital ads, which begin airing August 1, will run in every media market across the state as Jackson works to introduce himself to voters ahead of his November matchup against Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms, the former Atlanta mayor.
The billionaire founder of Jackson Healthcare, who won the Republican nomination by pouring more than $100 million of his own fortune into the primary and runoff, is again leaning on his personal wealth to define the general election. His campaign framed the buy as an effort to reach all 11 million Georgians and earn votes in each of the state's 159 counties.
The ad buy sets an expensive and combative tone in a race Democrats view as genuinely competitive, particularly after Democratic turnout exceeded Republican turnout in Georgia's June primary for the first time since 2006.
Data & Polling Roundup
New polling and data insights on the current electoral landscape and emerging trends.
Trump Approval Falls to 34%, Matching Career Low, as Democrats Hold Midterm Edge
A new CNN poll conducted by SSRS finds President Trump's approval rating has fallen to 34%, matching the career low he last reached at the close of his first term following the January 6, 2021, insurrection. Half of Americans now strongly disapprove of him, a high across both of his terms, while a record-low 15% strongly approve.
The survey reflects deep discontent across multiple fronts. A record-high 73% of adults say Trump has not paid enough attention to the country's most important problems, and roughly two-thirds say his policies have worsened economic conditions and that his military decisions in the Iran war have hurt the United States. About three-quarters say the president is out of touch with the problems ordinary Americans face.
On the midterms, Democrats hold a 5-point advantage over Republicans on the generic congressional ballot, an edge that expands to 16 points among the most highly motivated voters. Democratic enthusiasm is running high, with 80% of Democrats saying they are extremely or very motivated to vote compared to 74% of Republicans. Still, the poll underscored ongoing challenges for the party, as just 28% of voters approve of congressional Democratic leaders, compared to 35% for congressional Republican leaders, and voters were split on whether the country would be better off if Democrats won control of Congress.
El-Sayed Leads Stevens by 15 in Michigan Senate Primary Days Before the Vote
A new Emerson College Polling/WLNS/WOODTV survey of 700 likely Michigan Democratic primary voters, conducted July 26-27 with a credibility interval of +/- 3.7%, finds Abdul El-Sayed leading U.S. Representative Haley Stevens 54% to 39% ahead of the August 4 primary, with 6% undecided. When leaners are included, El-Sayed's edge holds at 57% to 41%. The result stands in contrast to a mid-July Detroit News poll that had shown Stevens up 7 points, underscoring how volatile the race has been in its final stretch.
A sharp age divide is driving the contest. Voters under 50 break for El-Sayed by 42 points, 67% to 25%, while voters over 60 flip to Stevens by 14 points, 53% to 39%. El-Sayed also leads among independents by 27 points and among Democrats by nine. Notably, Governor Gretchen Whitmer's approval among Democratic primary voters has dropped 17 points since April to 62%, and voters who disapprove of Whitmer back El-Sayed by a wide margin of 78% to 17%.
On the Republican side, the poll found U.S. Representative John James leading businessman Perry Johnson 40% to 32% in the GOP gubernatorial primary, with 17% undecided. Trump holds an 80% approval rating among Michigan Republican primary voters. The winner of the Democratic Senate primary will face Trump-endorsed former U.S. Representative Mike Rogers in November in one of the races expected to help decide control of the U.S. Senate.
Norman and Graham Lead South Carolina U.S. Senate Special Primary; Runoff Likely
A new Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey of 500 likely South Carolina GOP primary voters, conducted July 28-29 with a margin of error of +/- 4.3%, finds a crowded and unsettled field in the August 11 special Republican U.S. Senate primary, with no candidate near the 50% threshold needed to avoid a runoff.
U.S. Representative Ralph Norman leads with 22%, followed by appointed U.S. Senator Darline Graham Nordone at 19%, U.S. Representative Russell Fry at 12%, and former Governor Mark Sanford at 11%, with a quarter of voters still undecided. Norman leads among voters under 50 and those in their 50s, while Nordone's support is strongest among voters over 70, drawing 30% of that group. Notably, Trump's endorsement of Nordone appears to carry limited weight, with 53% of voters saying it makes no difference in their vote, 29% saying it makes them more likely to support her, and 18% less likely.
The economy dominates voter concerns, with 60% naming it the top issue for the next senator, followed by immigration at 19%. On the causes of high prices, a plurality of 42% blame former President Biden for grocery costs, while 32% blame Trump for the price of gas. Republican voters also strongly support U.S. military action in Iran, 73% to 20%, and 88% say it is important for candidates to participate in a debate before the special election.
Barnes Exits Wisconsin Governor's Race Days After Poll Shows Hong Pulling Away
A new Marquette Law School Poll of 407 Wisconsin Democratic primary voters, conducted July 22-27 with a margin of error of +/- 6.6%, found State Representative Francesca Hong widening her lead in the Democratic gubernatorial primary ahead of the August 11 election. Hong led with 38%, followed by former Lt. Governor Mandela Barnes at 16% and Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley at 7%, with former Department of Administration Secretary Joel Brennan and State Senator Kelda Roys each at 2%. The share of undecided voters dropped sharply to 34%, down from 45% earlier in the month.
Hong surged 12 points since the previous Marquette poll in early July, drawing her strongest support from younger and very liberal voters. She won two-thirds of voters under 30 and 74% of those who identify as very liberal, while Barnes and Crowley performed better with older and more moderate Democrats. When leaners were included, Hong's support expanded to 46%. Crowley, who recently reentered the race with an endorsement from Governor Tony Evers, remains largely undefined, with 67% of voters saying they have not heard enough about him. While 62% of primary voters said they were aware of the Evers endorsement, only 36% said it made them more likely to back Crowley.
The day after the poll's release, Barnes dropped out of the race, saying "it's become very clear who our nominee is going to be." He is the third Democrat to leave the race this month, following Lt. Governor Sara Rodriguez.
With Barnes out and roughly a third of primary voters still undecided, the field has narrowed to four candidates heading into the August 11 primary. The winner will face Republican U.S. Representative Tom Tiffany in November in the race to succeed Evers, who is not seeking a third term.