Photo Credit: David Crowley for Wisconsin
By BallotWire
08/14/2026
Top Election Developments
A weekly recap of major election news: key race developments, candidate moves, and shifts that could shape upcoming contests.
Crowley Upsets Hong in Wisconsin Democratic Governor Primary
Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley narrowly defeated Democratic Socialist State Representative Francesca Hong, 39.8% to 39.3%, in Wisconsin’s Democratic gubernatorial primary on August 11, pulling off a major upset after Hong entered Election Day leading in pre-election polling. Crowley’s victory capped a dramatic political comeback after he dropped out of the race on July 8, only to reenter 10 days later with the endorsement of outgoing Governor Tony Evers. He will face Trump-backed Republican U.S. Representative Tom Tiffany in November in Wisconsin’s first open gubernatorial election since 2010.
Crowley’s victory also breaks a string of high-profile Democratic Socialist primary wins that have fueled a broader debate over the Democratic Party’s direction this election cycle. His win marks a significant victory for the party’s moderate wing in a marquee statewide contest and keeps Democrats’ hopes alive of maintaining control of the Wisconsin governor’s office beyond the Evers era.
The general election is expected to be one of the most competitive gubernatorial contests in the country, with both parties viewing Wisconsin as a major opportunity in November. Democrats are seeking to retain the governorship they have held since Evers took office in 2019, while Republicans are attempting to win it back for the first time since Scott Walker left office. The race will also test whether Crowley can carry his strength in Milwaukee into the suburban and rural communities that have frequently decided close statewide elections in Wisconsin.
If elected, Crowley would make history as Wisconsin’s first Black governor, adding another milestone to a race already shaped by an unusually turbulent Democratic primary and the end of Evers’ two-term tenure.
Graham Nordone and Norman Advance to South Carolina U.S. Senate Runoff
Appointed U.S. Senator Darline Graham Nordone and U.S. Representative Ralph Norman will advance to the August 25 Republican runoff in South Carolina’s special U.S. Senate election. Graham Nordone finished first in the August 11 primary with 32.7% of the vote, but fell short of the majority required to secure the nomination outright. Norman claimed the second runoff spot with 24.6%, finishing ahead of U.S. Representative Russell Fry, who received 19.6%. The winner of the Graham Nordone-Norman runoff will become the Republican nominee and face Democrat Dr. Annie Andrews in the November general election.
The contest has emerged as another test of Donald Trump’s influence in Republican primaries. Trump personally recruited Graham Nordone following the death of her brother, late U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham, and gave her his “complete and total endorsement.” Norman, who is already retiring from the U.S. House and finished third in June’s Republican gubernatorial primary, acknowledged that he had sought Trump’s endorsement but maintained that South Carolina voters would ultimately decide the race. A Norman victory would mark the second time this year that South Carolina Republicans rejected a Trump-backed candidate, following Alan Wilson’s landslide runoff victory over Trump-endorsed Pamela Evette in the gubernatorial primary.
Flanagan Defeats Craig in Minnesota Democratic U.S. Senate Primary
Lt. Governor Peggy Flanagan decisively defeated U.S. Representative Angie Craig, 59.0% to 39.4%, in Minnesota’s Democratic U.S. Senate primary on August 11, delivering another major victory for progressives in the 2026 election cycle. Craig had emphasized her record of repeatedly winning a competitive congressional district, arguing that her electoral experience made her well positioned for the general election, while Flanagan campaigned on a more progressive vision for the Democratic Party.
Flanagan will face former sports broadcaster Michele Tafoya, who defeated GOP-endorsed former Navy SEAL Adam Schwarze in the Republican primary. The seat is open following the retirement of U.S. Senator Tina Smith, setting up a closely watched general-election contest for a seat Democrats have held since 2009.
If elected, Flanagan would make history as one of the first Native American women to serve in the U.S. Senate. She is one of two Native American women nominated for the U.S. Senate by Democrats this cycle, alongside former U.S. Representative Mary Peltola in Alaska. With both on the November ballot, the 2026 elections could bring Native American women to the U.S. Senate for the first time in history.
Demuth Defeats Trump-Backed Lindell, Setting Up Historic Minnesota Governor’s Race
Minnesota House Speaker Lisa Demuth won the Republican gubernatorial primary on August 11 with 43.4% of the vote, defeating Trump-endorsed MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell, who received 32.5%, and party-endorsed Kendall Qualls, who finished third with 21.4%. Demuth will face U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar, who easily secured the Democratic nomination with 89.7% of the vote. The matchup guarantees that Minnesota will elect a woman as governor for the first time in state history.
Demuth’s victory represented a notable setback for a Trump-endorsed candidate and demonstrated her ability to emerge from a competitive Republican field. She now advances to a challenging general election against Klobuchar, who enters the race after nearly two decades in the U.S. Senate and a long record of decisive statewide victories. Republicans have not won a statewide election in Minnesota since 2006, making Demuth’s bid an effort to break one of the party’s longest statewide losing streaks in the country.
Bronin Ousts 14-Term U.S. Rep. John Larson in Connecticut’s 1st District
Former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin defeated 14-term U.S. Representative John Larson 54.2% to 33.0% in Connecticut’s 1st Congressional District Democratic primary on August 11, bringing Larson’s 28-year tenure in Congress to an end. State Representative Jillian Gilchrest finished third with 8.1%, followed by Hartford Board of Education member Ruth Fortune at 4.7%. Bronin will enter the November election as the heavy favorite against Republican Dr. Amy Chai.
Bronin, 47, centered his campaign on generational change, arguing that long-tenured leadership was holding back the Democratic Party. Larson, 78, had not faced a primary challenger since first winning the open seat in 1998, making the four-way contest particularly unusual in a state where congressional primaries are often uncontested. Signs of Larson’s vulnerability emerged in May, when Bronin defeated him by just 10 votes for the Democratic Party’s official convention endorsement.
Cooke Wins Wisconsin’s 3rd District Democratic Primary, Setting Up Van Orden Rematch
Rebecca Cooke won the Democratic primary in Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District on August 11, defeating former Eau Claire City Council President Emily Berge 60.5% to 39.4%. Cooke’s victory sets up a rematch against Republican U.S. Representative Derrick Van Orden, who defeated her 51.3% to 48.6% in the 2024 general election. The race gives Democrats another opportunity to flip a seat that has remained highly competitive since longtime Democratic Representative Ron Kind retired in 2022.
Cooke, 38, grew up on an Eau Claire County dairy farm and has centered her campaign on her working-class background. The western Wisconsin district, which includes Eau Claire, La Crosse and Stevens Point, is expected to once again be among the most competitive U.S. House races in the country and a key battleground for control of the chamber.
Hobbs Taps Former Republican Mesa Mayor John Giles as Running Mate
Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs has selected former Mesa Mayor John Giles as her running mate in her 2026 reelection campaign, creating an unusual bipartisan ticket in one of the nation’s most competitive gubernatorial races. Giles, a longtime Republican who became an independent earlier this year, served as mayor of Mesa from 2014 to 2025 and previously endorsed Hobbs in her 2022 campaign. Hobbs said the selection reflects her effort to appeal beyond the Democratic base and build support among Arizona’s large bloc of independent and moderate Republican voters.
The Hobbs-Giles ticket will face Republican U.S. Representative Andy Biggs and his running mate, former State Senator Sine Kerr, in November. The election will also mark the first time in Arizona history that voters elect a governor and lieutenant governor together, following voter approval of a constitutional amendment creating the office in 2022.
Data & Polling Roundup
New polling and data insights on the current electoral landscape and emerging trends.
Jackson Edges Collins by 2 in Maine U.S. Senate Race After Democratic Nominee Swap
A new Fox News poll of 1,000 Maine registered voters, conducted August 6-10 with a margin of error of +/- 3%, finds Democratic nominee Troy Jackson narrowly leading Republican Sen. Susan Collins 48% to 46%, with 4% undecided. The result marks a shift from Fox's June survey, when Collins led then-nominee Graham Platner 50% to 47% before Platner withdrew from the race in July.
Among Jackson supporters, 61% say their vote is driven primarily by opposition to Collins rather than support for Jackson, a notable shift from June, when Platner supporters split 50% to 48% in the opposite direction. Collins also faces concerns over her alignment with Trump, with 55% of voters saying she votes with the president too often. Her favorability rating stands at 44% favorable and 54% unfavorable, while Jackson is viewed favorably by 47% and unfavorably by 46%.
In the governor's race, Democrat Hannah Pingree leads Republican Robert "Bobby" Charles 49% to 38%, with independent Rick Bennett at 9%, a narrower margin than her 11-point June lead. Inflation and high prices remain the top issue at 32%, and Trump's favorability in the state stands at 39% to 59%.
Georgia Governor's Race in a Statistical Tie
A new Quantus Insights survey of 815 likely Georgia voters, conducted July 29 to August 1 with a margin of error of +/- 3.6% and sponsored by the Natural Gas Association of Georgia, finds the governor's race essentially deadlocked less than three months before Election Day. Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms leads Republican Rick Jackson 46.4% to 44.9%, with 7.7% undecided, a margin the pollsters said leaves Georgia "at the center of the national political battlefield."
The state's Public Service Commission races are just as tight. In District 3, Democrat Peter Hubbard leads Republican Fitz Johnson 39.4% to 38.4%, while Democrat Sheila Edwards holds a 40.2% to 38.1% edge over Josh Tolbert in District 5. Roughly one in five voters remains undecided in both contests, leaving significant room for movement.
Beneath the partisan splits, the poll found a clear through-line: Georgia voters are focused first on household costs. Affordability and rising prices ranked as the leading concern across the electorate, a finding consistent with other recent Georgia surveys and a theme both parties have leaned into heading into November.
Cooper's Lead Over Whatley Grows to 12.5 Points in North Carolina U.S. Senate Race
A new Carolina Journal poll of 600 likely North Carolina general election voters, conducted August 9-10 by Harper Polling with a margin of error of +/- 4%, finds Democrat Roy Cooper leading Republican Michael Whatley 51.5% to 39% in the race for the state's open U.S. Senate seat. It marks the first time Cooper has crossed the 50% threshold in this poll series, and his lead has widened from 11.1 points in May.
Cooper holds the stronger partisan coalition, keeping 91% of Democrats while Whatley holds 81% of Republicans, with 9% of Republicans crossing over to Cooper. Cooper's biggest edge is with independents, whom he leads 55% to 34%.
Elsewhere on the ballot, Democratic Justice Anita Earls leads Republican Sarah Stevens 43.3% to 39.7% in the state Supreme Court race, narrowing from a 5.7-point lead in May. Democrats also lead the generic congressional ballot 48.8% to 43.5%.
On the broader environment, 60.9% of North Carolina voters say the country is on the wrong track, up from 57.7% in May, and Trump's approval sits at 41.2% to 56.7%. Inflation and cost of living top the issue list at 43.3%. The poll also found that 49.1% of voters would be less likely to support a candidate who identifies as a democratic socialist, compared to 25.5% who would be more likely.