Illustration: BallotWire
By BallotWire
02/062026
Top Election Developments
A weekly recap of major election news: key race developments, candidate moves, and shifts that could shape upcoming contests.
Supreme Court Upholds California Redistricting Map - The U.S. Supreme Court declined a request from the California Republican Party and the Trump administration to block California’s newly adopted congressional map approved by voters under Proposition 50, allowing it to be used in the 2026 midterm elections. The map is expected to shift as many as five seats toward Democrats and counter recent Republican-led redistricting in states like Texas.
Tina Smith Endorses Peggy Flanagan in Minnesota - Minnesota U.S. Senator Tina Smith, who announced she will not seek reelection in 2026, has officially endorsed Minnesota Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan to succeed her in the U.S. Senate. In a video released alongside Flanagan, Smith said: "There is no one that I trust more to stand with Minnesota than Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan, and that is why I'm endorsing Peggy to be the next Minnesota United States Senator." Flanagan is vying for the Democratic nomination against U.S. Representative Angie Craig, with the primary set for August 11, 2026. An internal poll commissioned by Flanagan's campaign and conducted by Public Policy Polling on January 16–17 showed her leading Craig 40% to 28%, with nearly a third of voters still undecided.
Menefee Defeats Edwards in Texas 18th Congressional District Runoff - Democrat Christian Menefee won Texas' 18th Congressional District special runoff election on January 31, capturing 68% of the vote against fellow Democrat Amanda Edwards. Menefee fills the House seat vacated by Sylvester Turner's death in March 2025. The runoff was triggered after no candidate won a majority in the November 4, 2025, special election.
Barry Loudermilk Won’t Seek Reelection - Republican U.S. Representative Barry Loudermilk announced he will not seek reelection in 2026, bringing his decade-plus tenure representing Georgia’s 11th Congressional District to a close and creating an open seat in a reliably Republican district. In a press release, Loudermilk cited a desire to spend more time with his family and step back from Washington after serving in Congress since 2015. His departure adds to a wave of House retirements this cycle.
New Jersey 11th Congressional District Special Primary - In the February 5 special primary to fill the U.S. House seat vacated by Governor Mikie Sherrill, Analilia Mejia narrowly led former U.S. Representative Tom Malinowski with about 28.75% to 27.96% of the vote in a crowded Democratic field. The race remains too close to call as ballots continue to be processed. Republican Joe Hathaway ran unopposed in his primary and will face the Democratic nominee in the April 16 special general election.
Democrat Flips Texas State Senate Seat in Major Upset - Taylor Rehmet, an Air Force veteran and union leader, flipped Texas State Senate District 9 by defeating Republican Leigh Wambsganss 57% to 42%. The upset is particularly stunning given that Trump carried the district by 17 points in 2024 and endorsed Wambsganss, while she also outraised Rehmet by more than six-to-one. Both candidates will face off again in November 2026 for a full four-year term.
Democrats Sweep New York Special Elections - Democrats held all four seats in the February 3rd special elections:
State Assembly District 36 (Queens): Democrat Diana Moreno won the special election, defeating Rana Abdelhamid (17.1%) and Mary Jobaida (7.8%) to succeed Zohran Mamdani following his election as New York City mayor.
State Assembly District 74 (Manhattan): Democrat Keith Powers won 82.13% of the vote, defeating Republican Joseph W. Foley (16.70%) to maintain the seat for Democrats in the heavily Democratic district.
State Senate District 47 (Manhattan): Democrat Erik Bottcher won 91.62% of the vote, defeating Republican Charlotte Friedman (7.59%) in the district covering the Upper West Side, Chelsea, and surrounding neighborhoods.
State Senate District 61 (Buffalo area): Democrat Jeremy Zellner defeated Republican Dan Gagliardo with 69.46% of the vote to fill the seat vacated by Sean Ryan following his election as Buffalo mayor.
GOP Holds Alabama State House Seat - Republican Kristin Nelson won the February 3rd special election in House District 38 with roughly 85% of the vote, defeating Democrat Hazel Floyd to maintain the seat for Republicans in the Chambers and Lee County district.
Data & Polling Roundup
New polling and data insights on the current electoral landscape and emerging trends.
Barr Leads Tight Kentucky GOP U.S. Senate Primary - A new Emerson College Polling survey conducted January 31 – February 2, 2026, shows a competitive race for the GOP nomination, with U.S. Representative Andy Barr leading at 24%, followed by former Attorney General Daniel Cameron at 21% and businessman Nate Morris at 14%. However, 38% of Republican voters remain undecided ahead of the May 19 primary.
Hochul Posts Strong Numbers in New York Governor's Race - A new Siena College poll conducted January 26–28, 2026, shows Governor Kathy Hochul with her highest favorability rating to date at 49% favorable versus 40% unfavorable. In a 2026 general election matchup, Hochul leads likely Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman 54% to 28%. The poll also shows Hochul with a 64% to 11% lead over Lieutenant Governor Antonio Delgado in the Democratic primary.