Weekly Election Update (July 13-17)

Top Election Developments

A weekly recap of major election news: key race developments, candidate moves, and shifts that could shape upcoming contests.

Sen. Lindsey Graham Dies at 71; His Sister Appointed to Fill His Seat as Wide-Open Race Emerges

South Carolina Republican U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham died on July 11 at the age of 71 following what his office described as a "brief and sudden illness." A preliminary finding from the D.C. medical examiner listed the cause of death as an aortic dissection due to heart disease. Graham died hours after returning from a trip to Ukraine. Graham was elected to the U.S. Senate in 2002, served four terms, and won his June primary while seeking a fifth.

On July 13, South Carolina Governor Henry McMaster appointed Graham's younger sister, Darline Graham Nordone, to serve out the remainder of his term through January 3. Graham had taken legal guardianship of Nordone when he was 22 and she was 13, after both of their parents died within 15 months of each other, a story he often shared on the campaign trail. Trump recommended Nordone for the seat, and U.S. Senator Tim Scott and Senate Majority Leader John Thune both endorsed the choice. Nordone, who has not previously held elected office, was sworn in on July 14 as South Carolina's first female U.S. senator, restoring Republicans' 53-47 Senate majority.

Her appointment fills the seat only through early January, with a special Republican primary set for August 11 and candidate filing opening July 21. The first public poll of that race, an Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey of 500 likely GOP primary voters conducted July 14-15 with a margin of error of +/- 4.3%, finds no clear frontrunner. Rep. Ralph Norman leads with 16%, followed by primary candidate Mark Lynch at 13%, Rep. Nancy Mace and Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette each at 10%, Rep. Russell Fry at 9%, McMaster at 8%, Nordone at 6%, and former Gov. Mark Sanford at 5%, with 18% undecided. A Trump endorsement could reshape the race entirely, as 46% of undecided voters said his backing would make them more likely to support a candidate. It remains unclear whether Nordone will seek the full term herself.

Stevens Racks Up Major Endorsements from Peters and Clyburn in Michigan Senate Primary

U.S. Representative Haley Stevens picked up two significant endorsements this week in the Michigan Democratic U.S. Senate primary, landing the backing of retiring U.S. Senator Gary Peters, whose seat she is running to fill, and former House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn, one of the most influential figures in national Democratic politics. Peters, who has represented Michigan for 18 years and worked alongside Stevens on the 2009 auto rescue, said she would be "ready on day 1 to fight for Michigan," while Clyburn's endorsement adds another prominent national voice to her campaign ahead of the primary.

The endorsements come at a pivotal moment following state Sen. Mallory McMorrow's exit from the race, which narrowed the primary to a two-way contest between Stevens and progressive Abdul El-Sayed, who is backed by U.S. Senators Bernie Sanders, U.S. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and the UAW. Recent polling has shown a tightening race, with the winner set to face former U.S. Representative Mike Rogers in November in one of the contests that could decide control of the U.S. Senate. The primary is scheduled for August 4.

Campaign Cash Tracker

Latest campaign finance highlights: top fundraising hauls, war chests, and trends shaping key races.

Ossoff Raises $20 Million in Q2, Enters Fall Campaign With $42 Million on Hand

U.S. Senator Jon Ossoff's reelection campaign announced it raised more than $20 million in the second quarter of 2026, entering the general election with over $42 million cash on hand as he defends his Georgia seat. The haul was powered overwhelmingly by small-dollar donors, with an average contribution of $42 across more than 474,000 donations and nearly 90% of contributions coming in at $100 or less. Nearly 340,000 of those donations came from people who had given less than $200 cumulatively, and Ossoff received contributions from nearly all of Georgia's 159 counties.

Ossoff will face Republican U.S. Representative Mike Collins, who won his primary runoff in June, in what is expected to be one of the most closely watched and expensive U.S. Senate races in the country. Recent polling has shown Ossoff with a lead over Collins, whose campaign has been dogged by a House Ethics Committee investigation into the alleged misuse of taxpayer funds.

Cooper Raises Nearly $15 Million in Q2 in North Carolina U.S. Senate Race

Former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper announced he raised more than $14.8 million in the second quarter of 2026 in his bid for North Carolina's open U.S. Senate seat. His campaign said 95% of donations came in at $100 or less, and nearly one-third came from first-time individual donors, reflecting what the campaign described as growing grassroots enthusiasm behind his candidacy.

Cooper enters the fall with a financial and polling advantage in the race to succeed retiring U.S. Senator Thom Tillis. Recent surveys have shown him leading Whatley by margins ranging from four to seven points, though Republicans note that undecided voters in the state lean heavily toward Trump. North Carolina is widely viewed as one of Democrats' best U.S. Senate pickup opportunities, though the party has not won a U.S. Senate race in the state since 2008.

VoteVets Launches Nearly $1 Million Ad Buy Backing Luke Bronin in Connecticut Primary

VoteVets announced on July 14 a nearly $1 million ad campaign supporting former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin in the Democratic primary for Connecticut's 1st Congressional District. The ad, which will run on cable and broadcast in the Hartford and New Haven markets over the next four weeks, highlights Bronin's record as a Navy veteran who took on corruption in the military and reformed Hartford's finances, framing him as the kind of new leadership Democrats need to counter what the group describes as Trump-era corruption.

Bronin is running in a heated primary to succeed a departing incumbent in the central Connecticut district. VoteVets, which spent $50 million last cycle and saw 143 of its endorsed candidates win, cited nonpartisan research showing veterans remain among the most trusted messengers with voters, particularly blue-collar men and younger demographics. The group frames its investment as part of a broader push to elect more Democratic veterans to Congress heading into November.

Data & Polling Roundup

New polling and data insights on the current electoral landscape and emerging trends.

Pennsylvania Voters Growing More Pessimistic on Economy; Shapiro Leads Governor's Race

A new Quinnipiac University poll of 895 Pennsylvania registered voters, conducted July 9-13 with a margin of error of +/- 4.3%, finds voters increasingly downbeat about their finances, with 44% saying they are worse off financially than a year ago, up from 36% in February. Just 36% say they are better off, and 52% believe the national economy is getting worse, up five points since February.

In the race for governor, incumbent Democrat Josh Shapiro leads Republican challenger Stacy Garrity 53% to 40%, a slight narrowing from his 55% to 37% edge in February. Shapiro remains one of the country's most popular governors, with a 56% job approval rating, while Garrity remains largely undefined, with 58% of voters saying they haven't heard enough about her. The economy and cost of living top voters' priorities at 74% and 73%.

The poll also highlighted growing opposition to AI data centers, with 74% of voters saying they would oppose one being built in their community, up from 68% in February. On the national picture, Trump's job approval sits at 39% approve to 58% disapprove, and Democrats hold a 49% to 43% edge on the generic congressional ballot. U.S. Senator John Fetterman drew notable crossover numbers, with 77% of Republicans approving of his job performance while 69% of Democrats disapprove, and 52% of all voters saying they would like to see him leave the Democratic Party.

Stevens Takes 7-Point Lead Over El-Sayed in Michigan U.S. Senate Democratic Primary

A new Detroit News/WDIV-TV poll of 500 likely Michigan Democratic primary voters, conducted July 8-11 with a margin of error of +/- 4.4%, finds Rep. Haley Stevens leading Abdul El-Sayed 48% to 41%, with about 10% undecided three weeks out from the August 4 primary. The result is a notable shift from earlier surveys that had shown El-Sayed leading or the race tied, in what has become a key test between the Democratic Party's moderate and progressive wings.

The race tightens considerably among voters who say they are definitely committed, with 34.1% identifying as firm Stevens supporters and 33.7% as firm El-Sayed supporters. Stevens holds a commanding lead among Black voters, 67% to 21%, while El-Sayed dominates among younger voters.

Cooper Leads Whatley by 4 in North Carolina U.S. Senate Race

A new Public Policy Polling survey of 759 North Carolina voters, conducted July 10-11 with a margin of error of +/- 3.6%, finds former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper leading Republican Michael Whatley 48% to 44% in the race to succeed retiring U.S. Senator Thom Tillis, though the poll notes Whatley has a clear path to victory.

Cooper's lead is driven in part by a significant name recognition advantage, with 92% of voters familiar with him compared to 69% for Whatley. As a result, Democrats have largely lined up behind Cooper while many Republican voters remain undecided, giving Whatley substantial room to grow. Voters still on the fence backed Trump by 72 points in 2024, meaning that if undecideds ultimately vote along their 2024 presidential lines, Whatley would win 51% to 49%.