Weekly Election Update (July 20-24)

Top Election Developments

A weekly recap of major election news: key race developments, candidate moves, and shifts that could shape upcoming contests.

Crowded Field Forms in South Carolina's Special U.S. Senate Republican Primary

The race to replace the late U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham on South Carolina's November ballot is taking shape on an unusually compressed timeline, with candidate filing opening July 21 and closing July 28 ahead of the August 11 special Republican primary.

U.S. Senator Darline Graham Nordone, who was appointed to her late brother's seat on July 13, announced Monday that she will seek a full six-year term after President Trump personally urged her to run and offered his "complete and total endorsement." Trump's backing, however, has not cleared the Republican field.

Former South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford launched his campaign on July 23, while U.S. Representative Ralph Norman, who lost the Republican gubernatorial primary last month, entered the race over the weekend. U.S. Representative Russell Fry, a close Trump ally who many expected to receive the president's endorsement, joined the contest on July 20. Businessman Mark Lynch, who challenged Graham in the June primary, and Duke Buckner have also filed.

The crowded contest could provide another test of Trump's influence among South Carolina Republicans. Last month, Trump-backed Lt. Governor Pamela Evette finished first in the gubernatorial primary but lost the runoff to Attorney General Alan Wilson in a landslide. The South Carolina Election Commission has also confirmed that candidates already on the November ballot, including sitting members of Congress, may simultaneously run for the Senate seat.

Only voters who participated in the June Republican primary or did not vote in either party's primary are eligible to cast ballots in the special primary. Early voting runs August 5-7, with a runoff scheduled for August 25 if no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote. The Republican nominee will face Democratic nominee Dr. Annie Andrews in November.

Biggs Wins Arizona GOP Governor Primary, Setting Up Marquee Showdown with Hobbs

Arizona’s primary elections set the stage for several high-profile general election contests, headlined by a closely watched governor’s race and two competitive U.S. House contests.

Governor: U.S. Representative Andy Biggs won the Republican nomination with 73.4% of the vote, easily defeating fellow U.S. Representative David Schweikert and two other candidates. Biggs, a House Freedom Caucus hardliner who voted to overturn the 2020 presidential election results, entered the race with President Donald Trump’s endorsement and a significant fundraising advantage. He will face Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs, who ran unopposed for her party’s nomination. Hobbs is among the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents in the country after narrowly defeating Kari Lake by less than one percentage point in 2022.

Arizona’s 1st Congressional District: Former NFL kicker Jay Feely won the Republican primary with 49.9% of the vote, narrowly defeating former Arizona State Representative Joseph Chaplik. On the Democratic side, former Arizona State Representative and physician Amish Shah secured the nomination with about 40% of the vote, despite the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee backing his opponent, Marlene Galán-Woods. With Donald Trump carrying the district by just over three percentage points in 2024, Democrats see the race as a prime opportunity to flip the seat.

Arizona's 6th Congressional District: Republican U.S. Representative Juan Ciscomani and Democratic nominee JoAnna Mendoza, a Marine Corps veteran, both advanced to the general election unopposed, setting up one of the nation's most competitive House races. Trump carried the district by less than a percentage point in 2024 and Ciscomani has won all of his races by narrow margins, defeating Kirsten Engel by just over 2.5 points in 2024.

Other Races: Arizona State Senate President Warren Petersen won the Republican primary for attorney general and will challenge Democratic Attorney General Kris Mayes. Arizona State Representative Alexander Kolodin won the Republican nomination for secretary of state and will face incumbent Democratic Secretary of State Adrian Fontes.

Jackson Emerges as Maine U.S. Senate Democratic Nominee After Rivals Clear the Field

Former Maine Senate President Troy Jackson has effectively secured the Democratic nomination to challenge Republican U.S. Senator Susan Collins after his remaining major rivals dropped out following a weekend of caucus-style delegate meetings across the state.

Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, former Maine Center for Disease Control and Prevention Director Nirav Shah, and former congressional staffer Jordan Wood all exited the race by Sunday night as Jackson’s supporters swept delegate contests across the state. His campaign says it secured the vast majority of the 500 delegates who will select the party’s replacement nominee.

The unusual nomination process was triggered by Graham Platner’s abrupt withdrawal from the race on July 10 amid sexual assault allegations. Platner had won roughly 72% of the vote in the June 9 Democratic primary, leaving the Maine Democratic Party less than three weeks under state law to select a replacement nominee.

Jackson, a 58-year-old logger from Allagash, has positioned himself as the candidate best suited to carry forward the populist momentum that fueled Platner’s primary victory. His nomination is expected to become official at a special party convention on July 25, two days before the July 27 deadline.

The race remains a top priority for both national parties in the battle for control of the U.S. Senate. Democrats have long viewed Collins as a top pickup opportunity, as she is the only Republican senator seeking reelection in a state carried by Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election.

Nevada and South Carolina Emerge as Front-Runners in DNC's 2028 Primary Calendar Fight

The Democratic National Committee's Rules and Bylaws Committee is nearing a recommendation on which state should kick off the 2028 presidential nominating calendar, with Nevada and South Carolina emerging as the leading contenders after months of lobbying by more than a dozen state parties.

The decision carries significant stakes. South Carolina, which held the first Democratic primary in 2024 after former President Joe Biden elevated it, is fighting to keep the slot. South Carolina has been a reliable indicator of the eventual Democratic nominee in recent decades, with its primary winner going on to secure the nomination in nearly every contested cycle since 1992. That includes Bill Clinton in 1992, Barack Obama in 2008, Hillary Clinton in 2016, and Joe Biden in 2020, whose decisive victory in the state revived his struggling campaign and reshaped the race. The lone exception during that period came in 2004, when John Edwards won South Carolina, but John Kerry secured the nomination.

Each side has built a distinct case. South Carolina's allies argue the party owes a debt to Black voters, with former DNC chair Jaime Harrison writing in a nine-page letter that history will judge whether the party kept faith with voters who kept faith with it. Influential Democratic U.S. Representative Jim Clyburn also sent his own letter urging members not to pass over the state.

Nevada's supporters, meanwhile, are making the case that the state better reflects the Democratic coalition and the broader electorate, pointing to its Latino, Black, AAPI, and Native American populations. They have also highlighted Nevada's strong organized labor presence and its status as a competitive general election battleground.

The committee is expected to issue its recommendation Friday, after which it will be considered by the full DNC at its summer meeting in Austin next month. The calendar will not become final until the full DNC approves it.

Fields Won't Seek Reelection After Redistricting Eliminated His Majority-Black District

Louisiana Democratic U.S. Representative Cleo Fields announced on July 21 that he will not seek reelection to Congress, after the state legislature redrew his majority-Black 6th District into a seat that heavily favors Republicans. Fields will instead run for the Louisiana state Senate seat in the 14th District that he held before returning to Congress, which opened again after his successor, State Senator Larry Selders, died earlier this month.

Fields' district sat at the center of the Supreme Court's April 29 decision in Louisiana v. Callais, which gutted a key provision of the Voting Rights Act and triggered a wave of Republican redistricting across the South. Fields had returned to Congress in 2024 after nearly three decades away, having previously served two U.S. House terms in the 1990s.

Campaign Cash Tracker

Latest campaign finance highlights: top fundraising hauls, war chests, and trends shaping key races.

Sand Breaks Iowa Fundraising Record With $9.4 Million Haul, Outraising Lahn by $3 Million

Democratic gubernatorial nominee Rob Sand raised nearly $9.4 million between May 27 and July 14, a record for an Iowa candidate and more than triple the previous state high, his campaign announced July 21. The haul brings Sand's total for the cycle to roughly $37.8 million and leaves him with $17.9 million cash on hand.

Republican nominee Zach Lahn raised about $6.4 million over the same period, but roughly 78% of that came from the Republican Governors Association, which has given $5 million directly to his campaign since the primary. After heavy spending during the reporting period, Lahn is left with about $1.04 million on hand, a nearly 17-to-1 disadvantage.

The contrast in donor bases is stark. Sand reported 33,500 individual contributions during the period, with 95% at $100 or less and an average donation of $280, drawing support from all 99 Iowa counties and 2,400 registered Republicans over the course of the campaign. Lahn reported 431 contributions with an average donation of $14,786.

The financial gap adds to Democratic optimism in a race for an open seat that Republicans have held since 2011. Recent polling has shown Sand leading Lahn, who narrowly upset Trump-endorsed U.S. Representative Randy Feenstra in the June primary, by roughly nine points.

Data & Polling Roundup

New polling and data insights on the current electoral landscape and emerging trends.

Democrats Hold 11-Point Lead on Generic Congressional Ballot

A new Emerson College Polling national survey of 1,100 likely voters, conducted July 19-20 with a credibility interval of +/- 2.9%, finds Democrats leading Republicans 53% to 42% on the generic congressional ballot, their widest advantage of the cycle. President Trump's job approval sits at 39%, unchanged over the past two months, while his disapproval ticked up another point to 57%.

Women are driving the Democratic lead, breaking for the Democratic candidate by 27 points, 56% to 39%, while men are more evenly split at 49% to 44%.

For the first time in Trump's second term, threats to democracy is the top issue for a plurality of voters at 28%, a 10-point jump from June. The economy fell to second at 27%, down 11 points, followed by immigration at 16% and healthcare at 13%.

The poll also found 61% of voters believe the U.S. is spending too much on aid to Israel, including 85% of Democrats and 68% of independents, while 55% of Republicans say the spending level is right. Opposition to data centers has surged, with 63% now opposing construction in or near their community, a 21-point increase since December 2025.

Jackson Holds Narrow Lead Over Collins in Maine U.S. Senate Race

A new University of New Hampshire Pine Tree State poll of 1,236 Maine residents, conducted July 15-20 with a margin of error of +/- 2.8%, finds presumptive Democratic nominee Troy Jackson narrowly ahead of Republican U.S. Senator Susan Collins, 49% to 46%, with 5% undecided or backing another candidate. It is the first public survey of the race since Jackson emerged as the front-runner following Graham Platner's withdrawal.

The race breaks sharply along party lines, with 88% of Democrats backing Jackson and 99% of Republicans behind Collins. Independents split 46% to 42% for Jackson. Collins, however, has flipped a key bloc, leading among moderate voters 49% to 41% after trailing Platner among that group 51% to 39% in May.

Among Democratic primary voters, 51% said they want Jackson as the nominee, and most agreed Platner's withdrawal was the right decision. Collins earns her strongest marks on delivering federal dollars to Maine, with 53% rating her very good or good. Still, slim majorities rate her poorly on her votes for Trump-backed bills, Cabinet confirmations, and Supreme Court nominees.

The poll also found Democratic gubernatorial nominee Hannah Pingree leading Republican Robert Charles 49% to 35%, with independent Rick Bennett at 6%.

Donalds and Moody Hold Single-Digit Leads in Florida Governor and U.S. Senate Races

A new University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab poll of 848 likely Florida midterm voters, conducted July 8-17 with a margin of error of +/- 3.8%, finds both of the state's top races closer than recent Florida election cycles.

In the governor's race, Republican U.S. Representative Byron Donalds leads Democrat David Jolly 46% to 41%, with 5% backing someone else and 6% undecided. In the U.S. Senate race, incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Ashley Moody holds a 50% share against both potential Democratic opponents, leading Alexander Vindman 50% to 40% and Angie Nixon 50% to 42%.

President Trump's job approval in Florida stands at 48% approve to 51% disapprove, with 46% strongly disapproving. His numbers are worse on foreign policy at 45% to 53%, and on his speech and demeanor at 39% to 60%. Vice President JD Vance posted similar numbers at 49% approve to 48% disapprove.