Weekly Election Update (June 29-July 3)

Top Election Developments

A weekly recap of major election news: key race developments, candidate moves, and shifts that could shape upcoming contests.

Supreme Court Upholds Mail-In Ballot Grace Periods in Surprise 5-4 Ruling

The U.S. Supreme Court ruled 5-4 on June 29 in Watson v. Republican National Committee to uphold mail-in ballot grace periods, rejecting a Republican challenge that could have upended how ballots are counted in November's midterms. The surprising decision preserved a Mississippi law allowing mail-in ballots to be counted as long as they are postmarked by Election Day and received within five business days afterward.

Justice Amy Coney Barrett, a Trump appointee, wrote the majority opinion, joined by Chief Justice John Roberts and the court's three Democratic appointees. Barrett concluded that federal election-day statutes require voting to be completed on Election Day but do not set a deadline for ballot receipt, meaning states are free to count ballots postmarked by Election Day but received afterward. Justices Samuel Alito, Clarence Thomas, Neil Gorsuch, and Brett Kavanaugh dissented.

The ruling protects mail-in voting grace periods in roughly 15 states and Washington, D.C., and marks a significant setback to Republican efforts to tighten mail voting rules ahead of the midterms. The decision came just over four months before the November elections, providing certainty for election officials who had been uncertain about which ballot receipt deadlines would apply in their states.

Supreme Court Strikes Down Limits on Party Coordinated Spending in 6-3 Ruling

The U.S. Supreme Court struck down federal limits on how much political parties can spend in coordination with their candidates on June 30, ruling 6-3 along ideological lines in National Republican Senatorial Committee v. Federal Election Commission that the caps violate the First Amendment. The decision further unwinds decades of campaign finance restrictions just months ahead of the November midterms.

Justice Brett Kavanaugh wrote the majority opinion, joined by the court's five other conservative justices, holding that the limits unduly prevented political parties from fully advocating for their nominees. Justice Elena Kagan wrote the dissent, joined by Justices Sonia Sotomayor and Ketanji Brown Jackson. The ruling overturns the court's 2001 decision in Colorado II, which had upheld the same limits as a safeguard against donors circumventing candidate contribution caps.

The case originated from a 2022 lawsuit brought by the National Republican Senatorial Committee, the National Republican Congressional Committee, and then-Senate candidate JD Vance. Under the prior limits, parties could spend between $65,300 and roughly $4 million in coordination with candidates, depending on the office and state. With those caps now gone, both parties can pour unlimited coordinated funds into individual races, a change expected to reshape the flow of money into congressional campaigns heading into November.

Colorado Primary Results: Weiser and Hickenlooper Prevail; Democratic Socialist Ousts DeGette

Colorado voters headed to the polls on June 30, delivering victories for prominent Democrats in the state's two major statewide contests, while the party's progressive wing notched a significant upset in Denver.

Governor: Attorney General Phil Weiser defeated U.S. Senator Michael Bennet, 56% to 43%, in the Democratic primary for governor, positioning himself to succeed term-limited Governor Jared Polis. Bennet entered the race as an early favorite, but Weiser gained momentum in the final weeks by presenting himself as a more forceful advocate against the Trump administration. In the heavily Democratic state, Weiser enters the general election as the clear favorite.

U.S. Senate: Incumbent U.S. Senator John Hickenlooper defeated State Senator Julie Gonzales, 53% to 46%, in Colorado’s Democratic U.S. Senate primary, turning back a progressive challenge as he seeks a second term. Hickenlooper, a former Denver mayor and Colorado governor, leaned on his record as a pragmatic Democrat with deep statewide ties, while Gonzales campaigned on generational change and criticized Hickenlooper for supporting several of President Trump’s Cabinet nominees. Hickenlooper, 74, now advances to the general election, where he will face Republican State Senator Mark Baisley in November.

Colorado's 1st Congressional District: The night's biggest surprise came in Denver, where democratic socialist and first-time candidate Melat Kiros defeated 30-year incumbent U.S. Representative Diana DeGette, 53% to 39%, in the safely Democratic 1st Congressional District. Kiros ran on a progressive platform focused on Medicare for All, housing affordability, universal childcare, and an arms embargo, arguing that the district needed a new generation of leadership. The upset adds to a growing list of progressive primary victories across the country this election cycle.

Letlow Wins Louisiana U.S. Senate GOP Runoff, Completing Trump's Revenge Against Cassidy

Trump-endorsed U.S. Representative Julia Letlow won the Louisiana Republican U.S. Senate runoff on June 27, defeating State Treasurer John Fleming, 57% to 43%, to secure the GOP nomination for the seat currently held by U.S. Senator Bill Cassidy. Cassidy, who voted to convict Trump during his 2021 impeachment trial, was eliminated in the May 16 primary after finishing third, marking the culmination of Trump's long-running effort to unseat the incumbent senator.

Letlow made history in 2021 as the first Republican woman elected to represent Louisiana in Congress. She won a special election to succeed her late husband, Luke Letlow, who won election to Louisiana's 5th Congressional District in 2020 but passed away before taking office. Julia Letlow went on to win the March 2021 special election to fill the seat and has represented the district ever since.

In November, Letlow will face Democratic nominee Jamie Davis, a farmer who won his party's runoff on the same night, in the general election.

AOC Endorses El-Sayed in Michigan U.S. Senate Primary

U.S. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorsed Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan’s Democratic U.S. Senate primary on July 2, arguing that he is best positioned to hold the seat for Democrats in November. “It has become clear that Abdul El-Sayed is the strongest candidate to keep this seat in November,” Ocasio-Cortez said, casting him as the party’s most viable contender in the closely watched battleground-state race.

The endorsement further strengthens El-Sayed’s coalition of progressive supporters, which already includes U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders, the United Auto Workers, and several members of Congress. El-Sayed has led recent public polling ahead of U.S. Representative Haley Stevens and State Senator Mallory McMorrow despite facing more than $30 million in outside spending opposing his candidacy. The winner of the three-way Democratic primary will advance to face former U.S. Representative Mike Rogers in November in one of the cycle’s most closely watched U.S. Senate contests.

Kean Returns to Congress After Four-Month Absence, Reveals Depression Diagnosis

New Jersey Republican U.S. Representative Tom Kean Jr. returned to Capitol Hill on June 30 after a nearly four-month absence, revealing on the House floor that he had been diagnosed with depression and spent an extended period hospitalized while receiving treatment. Kean had not cast a vote in the House since March 5, missing more than 140 votes and drawing increasing scrutiny from colleagues and constituents who received few details about his condition.

Despite being away from Capitol Hill and largely out of public view during treatment, Kean easily secured renomination in New Jersey's June 10 Republican primary, facing no opposition. In a statement, Democratic challenger Rebecca Bennett said she was glad to see Kean recovering but argued that his absence highlighted broader concerns about his effectiveness in representing the district, saying, “I got into this race because Tom Kean Jr. was failing our community long before this absence.”

New Jersey's 7th Congressional District remains one of the nation's most competitive House battlegrounds and a key Democratic target as the party seeks to regain control of the House in November.

Data & Polling Roundup

New polling and data insights on the current electoral landscape and emerging trends.

Bottoms Leads Georgia Governor's Race; Ossoff Holds Double-Digit Lead in U.S. Senate Race

A new Fox News poll of 1,002 Georgia registered voters, conducted June 23-27 with a margin of error of +/- 3%, finds Democrats leading in both of Georgia's marquee November races.

In the governor's race, Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms holds a 5-point edge over Republican Rick Jackson, 52% to 47%. Both candidates carry net-positive favorability ratings, with Bottoms at 52% favorable to 38% unfavorable and Jackson at 43% favorable to 38% unfavorable. The results show some ticket splitting, with 11% of Ossoff supporters crossing over to back Jackson for governor.

In the U.S. Senate race, incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Jon Ossoff leads Republican U.S. Representative Mike Collins 56% to 43%. Ossoff draws strong support from Black voters (87%), voters under 30 (68%), and independents (68%), and benefits from greater party loyalty, with 96% of Democrats behind him compared to 89% of Republicans backing Collins. Notably, nearly a quarter of non-MAGA Republicans say they will back Ossoff. Ossoff also enjoys higher favorability at 58%, compared to 44% for Collins and 42% for Trump, whose favorable rating is down 5 points from 2024.

Inflation dominates voter concerns at 40%, with Ossoff holding advantages among voters most focused on inflation, healthcare, and political divisions, while Collins leads among those focused on immigration. Georgia voters are also 6 points more likely to be concerned that Collins is too close to Trump (53%) than that Ossoff is too liberal (47%).

Turek Holds 4-Point Lead Over Hinson in Iowa U.S. Senate Race

A new Fox News poll of 1,003 Iowa registered voters, conducted June 23-27 with a margin of error of +/- 3%, finds Democratic State Representative Josh Turek leading Republican U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson 50% to 46% in the race to succeed retiring U.S. Senator Joni Ernst.

Turek draws support from women with college degrees, independents, urban voters, and voters under 30, while Hinson relies on White evangelical Christians, veterans, and men without college degrees. Turek is notably more popular, with a net positive favorability rating of 18 points, compared to Hinson's net negative 7 points. Among voters who say they are extremely motivated to turn out, Turek leads by 15 points, driven by greater Democratic enthusiasm.

The poll reflects a broader shift in a state Trump carried by 13 points in 2024. Iowans now view Trump negatively by 13 points (42% favorable to 55% unfavorable), a 19-point swing from his positive rating on Election Day 2024. Inflation is the top issue at 39%, with Turek holding a 15-point advantage among those voters. In the governor's race, Democratic State Auditor Rob Sand leads Republican Zach Lahn by 9 points. The pollsters noted that a trifecta of issues, rising prices, skepticism of foreign engagements, and frustration over tariffs hurting farmers, is helping Democrats compete in a state that had turned reliably red.

Talarico and Paxton Deadlocked at 47% in Texas U.S. Senate Race

A New York Times/Siena College poll of 656 likely Texas voters, conducted June 19-27 with a margin of error of +/- 4.5%, finds the Texas U.S. Senate race in a dead heat, with Democratic State Representative James Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton each drawing 47% support.

Talarico leads among women (56% to 38%), voters under 44, Black voters (80% to 13%), and Hispanic voters (61% to 29%), while Paxton leads among men (57% to 36%), voters 45 and older, and white voters (59% to 37%). Among independents, Talarico holds a wide 58% to 31% edge. The poll also revealed several warning signs for Paxton beyond the topline number. Only 38% of voters said Paxton has "good character," compared to 56% for Talarico, and half of respondents described Paxton as "too extreme."

The Times/Siena result is consistent with a University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll reported last week that showed Paxton at 43% and Talarico at 42%, a one-point gap within the margin of error. Taken together, the polls point to a race with no clear frontrunner in a state Trump carried by 14 points in 2024.

New Hampshire Governor and U.S. Senate Races Tighten Ahead of Fall Elections

A new University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll of 2,396 New Hampshire residents, conducted June 18-23 with a margin of error of +/- 2%, finds both of the state's marquee races narrowing.

In the governor's race, incumbent Republican Governor Kelly Ayotte leads Democrat Cinde Warmington 44% to 39%, with her five-point edge down from eight points in April. Ayotte's job approval sits at 47% approve to 45% disapprove, while Warmington remains largely unknown, with 43% saying they don't know enough about her to form an opinion.

In the U.S. Senate race to succeed retiring U.S. Senator Jeanne Shaheen, Democratic U.S. Representative Chris Pappas leads former U.S. Senator Scott Brown 52% to 38% in a general election matchup, but is now statistically tied with former U.S. Senator John E. Sununu, leading just 47% to 44%, down from a seven-point edge in April. In the Republican primary, Sununu holds a commanding lead over Brown, 59% to 20%. On the Democratic side, Pappas leads Karishma Manzur 53% to 29%, though his advantage has narrowed sharply from 43 points in April, with younger and more left-leaning voters favoring Manzur. Both primaries are set for September 8.