Photo Credit: David Jolly for Governor campaign
By BallotWire
08/21/2026
Top Election Developments
A weekly recap of major election news: key race developments, candidate moves, and shifts that could shape upcoming contests.
Nixon Stuns Vindman in Florida U.S. Senate Democratic Primary; Moody Cruises on GOP Side
Florida voters selected their U.S. Senate nominees on August 18, setting the stage for a November special election to fill the final two years of the term previously held by Marco Rubio. Appointed Republican U.S. Senator Ashley Moody easily turned back her primary challengers, while Democratic State Representative Angie Nixon pulled off a major upset over retired Army Lieutenant Colonel Alex Vindman.
Nixon, a Jacksonville state representative and democratic socialist, won the Democratic nomination with 56.1% of the vote to Vindman’s 43.9%. Her victory was a significant upset in a race where Vindman entered Election Day with a substantial fundraising advantage and a much higher national profile. Vindman, who rose to prominence after testifying during President Trump’s first impeachment proceedings in 2019, raised more than $16 million for his campaign. Nixon raised less than $1 million.
Despite the enormous financial disparity, Nixon brought an established political base to the race. She has represented the Jacksonville area in the Florida House of Representatives since 2020 and has emerged as one of the Legislature’s most outspoken progressive members. Nixon gained statewide attention in 2026 as a leading opponent of Republicans’ mid-decade congressional redistricting effort, protesting a new map backed by Governor Ron DeSantis that became law in May and further expanded the GOP’s advantage in Florida’s congressional delegation.
The November matchup between Moody and Nixon will feature two candidates from distinctly different ideological wings of their respective parties. It also comes as Democrats seek to reverse years of Republican gains in a state that has shifted substantially to the right over the past several election cycles. Republicans have won every Florida U.S. Senate election since 2016 and have increasingly established the state as a reliable part of the party’s national electoral coalition.
Donalds and Jolly Set for November Showdown in Florida Governor's Race
Republican U.S. Representative Byron Donalds and Democrat David Jolly won their parties’ gubernatorial nominations on August 18 in a race to succeed term-limited Governor Ron DeSantis. Donalds emerged from a crowded 11-candidate Republican field with 47.8% of the vote, while Jolly won the Democratic primary with 61.0% against five opponents.
Donalds entered the primary as the Republican frontrunner with an endorsement from President Trump. He also held a commanding financial advantage, raising more than $81 million through his campaign and allied political committees.
Jolly, a former Republican congressman, completed a political transformation on his path to the Democratic nomination. He left the Republican Party in 2018 and became an increasingly prominent Trump critic before joining the Democratic Party and launching his campaign for governor.
The November contest will test whether Democrats can break Republicans’ decades-long hold on the Florida governorship. The GOP has won every gubernatorial election in the state since 1998, while Florida has shifted further toward Republicans in recent election cycles. Donalds will seek to extend that streak, while Jolly will try to become the first Democrat elected governor of Florida since Lawton Chiles won reelection in 1994.
Mills Ousted in Florida's 7th District Republican Primary
Republican U.S. Representative Cory Mills lost the Republican primary in Florida’s 7th Congressional District on August 18, falling to former television news anchor Ryan Elijah, 47.3% to 34.1%. Mills, a two-term congressman, entered the primary facing a House Ethics Committee investigation into allegations that include domestic violence and misuse of congressional resources.
Although President Trump endorsed Mills in February, the congressman was notably absent from Trump’s final round of Florida endorsements ahead of the primary. Governor Ron DeSantis and two members of Florida’s congressional delegation also publicly backed Elijah, adding to the high-profile opposition Mills faced in the closing stretch of the campaign.
Democrats had viewed Mills’ controversies as a potential opportunity to make the district more competitive in November. Elijah’s victory, however, complicates those hopes in a district that has moved firmly toward Republicans in recent elections. Trump carried the 7th District by 12 points in 2024.
Peltola Leads Sullivan in Alaska U.S. Senate Primary as Both Advance to November
Former Democratic U.S. Representative Mary Peltola led Alaska’s all-party U.S. Senate primary on August 18 with 48.1% of the vote, ahead of two-term Republican U.S. Senator Dan S. Sullivan at 42.7%. Under Alaska’s top-four primary system, the four candidates with the most votes advance to the November general election, regardless of party.
The race also produced an unusual result. Dan J. Sullivan, a retired Petersburg teacher who shares the incumbent senator’s name, finished third with 2.4% and is on track to advance to November. Republicans have raised concerns that having two Dan Sullivans on the ballot could confuse voters and hurt the incumbent. The fourth and final spot remains too close to call.
Peltola became the first Alaska Native elected to Congress in 2022 and served one term before narrowly losing to Republican Nick Begich in 2024. Her U.S. Senate bid gives Democrats a serious opportunity in Alaska as they look for the seats needed to regain control of the chamber.
Democrats Flip Deep-Red Pennsylvania State House Seat in Final Special Election Before November
Democrat Brandon Dukes narrowly won a special election for Pennsylvania’s 12th State House District on August 18, flipping a Butler County seat that Republicans had held since 1999. Unofficial results show Dukes leading Republican Scott Timko by just 97 votes, 50.2% to 49.7%, with provisional ballots still to be counted and certification expected on August 26.
The victory marks the 31st state legislative seat Democrats have flipped since President Trump took office in January 2025 and temporarily increases the party’s Pennsylvania House majority to 103-100. Dukes and Timko will face each other again in November, this time for a full two-year term.
Campaign Cash Tracker
Latest campaign finance highlights: top fundraising hauls, war chests, and trends shaping key races.
Planned Parenthood Votes Launches $600,000 Ad Campaign Against Collins in Maine
Planned Parenthood Votes announced on August 17 a digital ad campaign totaling more than $600,000 targeting Republican U.S. Senator Susan Collins over her record on abortion, one of the first major outside investments in Maine's U.S. Senate race.
The ads feature Maine women discussing Collins' 2018 vote to confirm Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, a decision the group ties directly to the Court's later reversal of the federal right to abortion. The campaign also notes she has voted to confirm President Trump's judicial appointments 94% of the time during his second term. The buy is part of Planned Parenthood's broader $47 million "We Decide" electoral campaign this cycle.
Collins faces Democratic nominee Troy Jackson, the former Maine State Senate President, in November. She is the only Republican senator seeking reelection in a state carried by Democrats in 2024, and recent polling has shown Jackson leading in the race.
Data & Polling Roundup
New polling and data insights on the current electoral landscape and emerging trends.
El-Sayed Leads Rogers by 7 in First Michigan U.S. Senate Survey Since the Primary
A new Susquehanna Polling and Research survey finds Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed leading Republican nominee and former United States Representative Mike Rogers 46% to 39% in Michigan’s U.S. Senate race. The poll of 800 likely voters was conducted August 11-17 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.46 percentage points. Nine percent of voters are undecided and 4% support another candidate. It is the first public general election poll since El-Sayed narrowly won the Democratic primary on August 4.
The poll shows El-Sayed holding strong support among Democrats following a competitive primary. He leads Rogers 91% to 0% among Democratic voters, including 92% to 0% among self-identified progressives and 89% to 0% among Democrats who do not identify with the party’s left wing. El-Sayed also leads 46% to 24% among independent and unaffiliated voters, while Rogers leads 90% to 2% among Republicans.
Neither candidate has a positive favorability rating. El-Sayed is viewed favorably by 31% of voters and unfavorably by 45%, compared with 28% favorable and 37% unfavorable for Rogers. Among voters who dislike both candidates and disapprove of President Trump, El-Sayed leads 26% to 15%, with about a third still undecided. Trump’s job approval in Michigan stands at 38% approve, and 56% disapprove. Inflation and the economy rank as the top issue for 34% of voters, and El-Sayed leads 47% to 38% among that group.
Markey Opens Wide Lead Over Moulton Two Weeks Before Massachusetts Primary
A new University of Massachusetts Amherst and WCVB-TV poll finds U.S. Senator Ed Markey leading U.S. Representative Seth Moulton 60% to 32% among Democratic primary voters, two weeks before Massachusetts’ September 1 primary. The survey included more than 800 registered voters, including roughly 445 registered Democrats. The margin of error is 4.4 percentage points for the full sample and 5.8 points among self-identified Democratic primary voters.
The results show a much wider race than earlier polling. Markey leads across several key groups, including 52% to 43% among men, 65% to 24% among women, 53% to 22% among voters ages 18 to 29, and 62% to 29% among college graduates.
Markey also receives strong marks from Democratic primary voters, with more than four in five approving of his job performance and his work representing Massachusetts. Moulton, 47, has made Markey’s age a central issue in the campaign, arguing that the 80-year-old senator is too old to continue serving and calling for a constitutional amendment establishing age limits for members of Congress. So far, the poll shows little evidence that the argument has cut into Markey’s support.
Crowley Leads Tiffany by 4 in First Wisconsin Governor Survey Since the Primary
A new Badger Battleground poll finds Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, the Democratic nominee for Governor of Wisconsin, leading Republican nominee and U.S. Representative Tom Tiffany 48% to 44% in the race to succeed retiring Governor Tony Evers. The survey of 500 likely general election voters was conducted August 12-13 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
Crowley leads 42% to 30% among independent voters and also performs strongly among Democrats and college-educated voters. Tiffany draws his strongest support from Republicans and voters without a college degree. Crowley is viewed favorably by 43% of voters and unfavorably by 26%, while Tiffany is viewed favorably by 38% and unfavorably by 43%.