Illustration: BallotWire
By BallotWire
09/04/2026
Top Election Developments
A weekly recap of major election news: key race developments, candidate moves, and shifts that could shape upcoming contests.
Markey Turns Back Moulton's Generational Challenge in Massachusetts U.S. Senate Primary
United States Senator Ed Markey easily defeated United States Representative Seth Moulton in Massachusetts’ Democratic Senate primary on September 1, winning 64.8% to 35.2%. The victory gives Markey the Democratic nomination for a third full term and comes in a primary cycle in which several longtime Democratic lawmakers have lost to younger challengers.
Moulton, 47, made generational change the centerpiece of his campaign, arguing that the 80-year-old Markey should step aside for a new generation of leadership. Markey instead emphasized his progressive record, including his support for the Green New Deal and Medicare for All, and drew support from prominent national progressives.
The victory marks the second time Markey has defeated a high-profile Democratic primary challenger, following his 2020 win over former U.S. Representative Joe Kennedy III. Markey will face Republican nominee John Deaton, who ran unopposed in the Republican primary, in November.
Koh Wins Crowded Democratic Primary in Massachusetts' 6th District
Former Biden administration official Dan Koh won the Democratic primary in Massachusetts’ 6th Congressional District on September 1, taking roughly 41.0% of the vote in a six-candidate field. Massachusetts State Representative Tram Nguyen finished second with 29.5%, followed by John Beccia III at 12.1%, Jamie Belsito at 9.7%, Mariah Lancaster at 4.0% and Bethany Andres-Beck at 3.7%.
The race was the first open contest for the North Shore-based district in more than a decade, after U.S. Representative Seth Moulton gave up the seat to challenge U.S. Senator Ed Markey in the Democratic U.S. Senate primary. Koh, who served in the Biden administration as chief of staff to former U.S. Secretary of Labor Marty Walsh, highlighted his experience in the administration throughout the campaign.
Koh advances to the November general election as the Democratic nominee in a district that has reliably favored Democrats in recent elections.
Missouri Supreme Court Blocks New Congressional Map, Orders November Referendum
The Missouri Supreme Court unanimously ruled September 3 that the state’s Republican-drawn congressional map cannot be used in November’s midterm elections and ordered the plan placed before voters in a statewide referendum. The decision keeps Missouri’s 2022 congressional map in place for the general election, blocking a Republican effort to redraw Democratic U.S. Representative Emanuel Cleaver’s Kansas City-based district and potentially shift the state’s congressional delegation from 6-2 Republican to 7-1.
In the unanimous opinion, Judge Ginger Gooch ruled that the referendum petition challenging the 2025 map was legal, timely, and had enough valid signatures. The court reversed Missouri Secretary of State Denny Hoskins’ decision to reject the referendum. It held that the state constitution allows voters to challenge congressional redistricting plans through the referendum process.
If voters approve the new map in November, it would take effect 30 days later and could be used in future elections. Missouri Attorney General Catherine Hanaway said she plans to appeal the ruling to the U.S. Supreme Court, arguing that the U.S. Constitution gives state legislatures authority over congressional redistricting.
The ruling also creates an unusual situation for this year’s elections. Missouri held its August congressional primaries under the 2025 map, but the November general election will now be conducted under the 2022 district lines.
North Carolina GOP Nominee Fined and Suspended by Kalshi for Betting on Her Own Race
Laurie Buckhout, the Republican nominee in North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District, was fined $2,589.96 and suspended from the prediction market Kalshi for three years after buying contracts tied to the outcome of her own election. Kalshi announced the settlement on August 31, with the suspension taking effect August 28.
According to the settlement, Buckhout purchased less than $1,000 in contracts related to her race. Kalshi determined that, as a candidate, Buckhout had direct influence over the outcome of the election and therefore violated platform rules prohibiting people who can influence an event from trading on it.
Buckhout is challenging Democratic United States Representative Don Davis in a rematch in northeastern North Carolina. Davis narrowly defeated Buckhout in 2024, winning 49.5% to 47.8%, a margin of just over 6,300 votes. The district has since been redrawn by Republican state lawmakers, making it more favorable to Republicans ahead of their 2026 rematch.
Davis called the suspension a breach of public trust, while the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee accused Buckhout of engaging in conduct similar to insider trading. The district is expected to be one of the most competitive U.S. House races of the midterm elections and a key battleground in the fight for control of the chamber.
DNC Launches Young Voter Registration Push in Nevada Ahead of Midterms
The Democratic National Committee launched a voter registration effort in Nevada over the weekend, deploying dozens of paid fellows through its When We Count program to register and mobilize young voters. Organizers will hold registration drives at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, as well as sporting events, concerts, stores, festivals and other community gatherings.
The effort comes as Democrats focus on several competitive Nevada races this November, including the governor’s race and four U.S. House contests. The DNC is also providing the Nevada Democratic Party $17,500 a month through its State Partnership Program.
The Nevada program is part of a broader DNC voter registration push this year targeting young voters, shift and gig workers and other potential voters ahead of the midterm elections.
Campaign Cash Tracker
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Pro-Paxton Super PAC Launches $15 Million Ad Blitz in Texas U.S. Senate Race
Lone Star Liberty PAC, a super PAC backing Republican U.S. Senate nominee Ken Paxton, launched a $15 million advertising campaign on September 1 targeting Democratic State Representative James Talarico. The ads will run across 18 Texas media markets over two weeks, marking the first major general election advertising push on Paxton’s behalf.
One ad promotes Paxton’s record as Texas Attorney General, while another attacks Talarico over China. The spending comes as Paxton faces a fundraising disadvantage following his primary victory over U.S. Senator John Cornyn and has received limited support from national Republican groups.
Recent polling has shown a close race between Paxton and Talarico, an unusually competitive contest in a state where Democrats have not won a U.S. Senate election since 1988.
Data & Polling Roundup
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Benson Leads Comfortably in Michigan Governor's Race; El-Sayed Holds Narrower
U.S. Senate Edge
A new Michigan State University State of the State survey finds Democrats leading both of Michigan’s major statewide races. Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson leads U.S. Representative John James 49% to 39% among registered voters in the governor’s race, while Dr. Abdul El-Sayed leads former U.S. Representative Mike Rogers 48% to 44% in the U.S. Senate race.
Among likely voters, Benson’s lead is 52% to 43%, while El-Sayed leads Rogers 50% to 45%. The poll also shows a generational divide, with El-Sayed performing better than Benson among voters under 45 and Benson running stronger among older voters.
President Trump’s endorsement remains a potential liability in the state, with 55% of respondents saying it would make them less likely to support a candidate, compared with 27% who say it would make them more likely.
Democrat Leela Gray Leads Luna in Florida's 13th District
A new poll released by House Majority PAC finds Democratic candidate Leela Gray leading Republican U.S. Representative Anna Paulina Luna 51% to 46% in Florida's 13th Congressional District. The poll was conducted by Hart Research Associates from August 25-27.
The topline narrows considerably in a multi-candidate matchup, with Gray leading Luna 44% to 43% and independent candidate Tony D'Arrigo drawing 7%. According to the poll, Gray leads among unaffiliated voters 56% to 39% and pulls 24% of Republicans, with 9% of 2024 Trump voters backing her in the head-to-head.
The survey also found Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot in the district 49% to 44%, and President Trump underwater at 43% approve to 57% disapprove. The poll's 2024 recall showed Trump winning the district by 12 points, meaning the results would represent a significant shift in a seat Republicans have held comfortably.
Hinson Leads Turek in Iowa U.S. Senate Race; Sand Holds Edge in Governor's Race
A new Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey of 750 likely Iowa voters, conducted August 31 to September 1 with a credibility interval of +/- 3.6%, finds Republican U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson leading Democratic State Representative Josh Turek 50% to 45% in the U.S. Senate race. Hinson gained two points since Emerson's August poll, while Turek's support held steady at 45%.
In the governor's race, Democratic State Auditor Rob Sand leads Republican businessman Zach Lahn 49% to 46%, with 6% undecided. Notably, about 6% of Iowa voters are splitting their tickets to back Hinson for Senate and Sand for governor. Independent voters break for Sand over Lahn by 12 points, 51% to 39%, while Turek narrowly leads Hinson among that group 46% to 44%. President Donald Trump's job approval in the state sits at 44% approve to 52% disapprove.
The poll also captured significant concern about tariffs and data centers. A majority of voters, 58%, oppose U.S. tariffs on Canadian products, and 71% say they are concerned about Canada's retaliatory tariffs of up to 50% on U.S. imports. On data centers, 60% believe they will negatively impact Iowa's environment and 52% say the same about cost of living, while voters are more split on jobs, with 44% expecting a negative impact and 41% a positive one.