Illustration: BallotWire
By BallotWire
10/16/2026
Top Election Developments
A weekly recap of major election news: key race developments, candidate moves, and shifts that could shape upcoming contests.
More Than 7.2 Million Ballots Cast as Early Voting Expands
More than 7.2 million voters have already voted in the 2026 midterm elections, according to the University of Florida Election Lab’s early voting tracker, as of Friday morning.
Of the 7,299,492 ballots cast, 5,407,036 were returned by mail, and 1,892,456 were cast in person. Another 57.7 million mail ballots have been requested nationwide.
With Election Day approaching on November 3, you can follow all 435 U.S. House races, every U.S. Senate contest, and every governor’s race through BallotWire’s 2026 Elections Tracker. You can also predict election outcomes using our interactive U.S. Senate map and interactive governor map, then cast your calls on BallotWire Election Predictions, our free, no-stakes prediction market where you pick winners across the 2026 midterms and see how the crowd is leaning.
Federal Judge Halts Taxpayer-Funded Trump Ads Ahead of Midterms
A federal judge in New York ordered the Trump administration Sunday to stop airing taxpayer-funded television ads promoting President Trump, issuing a 14-day temporary restraining order ahead of the November 3 midterm elections.
The ruling follows a lawsuit by Common Cause, Democracy Forward and other plaintiffs, who argued the ads were political campaign material improperly funded with public money.
The administration told the court it had already spent roughly $19 million on the ads. According to The New York Times, the campaign was funded through a $20 million contract using Department of Homeland Security funds. At least 13 ads aired across major television networks.
Trump announced on October 5 that future ads would be funded privately or through MAGA Inc., but the spots continued airing afterward. The administration maintains the ads promote the country, not any political candidate.
A separate lawsuit filed by the Democratic National Committee remains pending in Washington.
Federal Agents Search Omar's Home Three Weeks Before Election
Federal agents searched Democratic U.S. Representative Ilhan Omar's Washington, D.C.-area home Monday under a warrant authorized by a judge. The Justice Department confirmed the search was part of an ongoing criminal investigation but provided no further details.
President Trump has repeatedly targeted Omar, a Somali-born U.S. citizen, questioning her immigration history and calling for her deportation. At a Tennessee rally Saturday, Trump criticized Omar's background and suggested Vice President JD Vance, and other administration officials were investigating her. Vance has previously accused Omar of immigration fraud without publicly providing evidence. Omar has denied the allegations.
Following the search, Trump said he had nothing to do with the investigation. Omar accused the administration of using federal law enforcement against political opponents. Congressional Democratic leaders also questioned the timing, citing longstanding Justice Department practices against taking public investigative actions involving candidates shortly before elections.
Omar is seeking a fifth term representing Minnesota's heavily Democratic 5th Congressional District. She won the August primary with 80.7% of the vote and faces Republican John Nagel on November 3.
Suspicious Mailings Target Election Offices and U.S. Senators
The FBI and U.S. Postal Inspection Service are investigating suspicious letters sent to election offices and congressional offices nationwide this week, some containing an unidentified white powder.
Election offices in Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Delaware were evacuated after receiving suspicious packages. Ohio officials said they intercepted a similar letter before delivery.
At least six Democratic U.S. Senate offices were targeted, including those of U.S. Senators Lisa Blunt Rochester, Kirsten Gillibrand, Alex Padilla, Chris Murphy and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. Several letters were intercepted before reaching their intended recipients.
Similar mailings targeted election offices in more than 15 states ahead of the 2024 election. Federal authorities are investigating who sent the latest letters and whether the incidents are connected.
Justice Department Sues California Over Alleged Noncitizen Voters
The Justice Department sued California election officials Thursday, seeking to prevent the counting of mail ballots from more than 20,000 voters the federal government identifies as likely noncitizens in the November 3 election.
The lawsuit names California Secretary of State Shirley Weber and Los Angeles County Registrar Dean Logan. Federal officials want to separate the ballots and verify each voter's citizenship before counting. The list was compiled by comparing California voter records with federal immigration data.
Weber said the administration provided no evidence supporting its allegations and accused the department of undermining public confidence in elections. California automatically mails ballots to all registered voters, but only U.S. citizens may legally vote in federal elections.
The lawsuit comes less than three weeks before Election Day and follows Justice Department demands for voter registration records from over 40 states. Courts have rejected several of those requests, including one in California over voter privacy concerns.
The department says it is not trying to remove voters from the rolls or cancel ballots, but to require additional citizenship checks before counting disputed votes.
Voting Rights Groups Sue DHS Over Nationwide Voter Database
Three voting rights and privacy organizations sued the Department of Homeland Security Thursday, alleging the agency illegally collected voter registration records from at least 47 states to build a nationwide database.
The lawsuit, filed by the League of Women Voters, the Electronic Privacy Information Center and the League of United Latin American Citizens, claims DHS violated federal privacy laws and exceeded its authority. The records may include voters' Social Security numbers, driver's license numbers, addresses, voting histories, and political affiliations.
According to the complaint, DHS collected nearly 99 million voter records by June and sought to link the information to an immigration-enforcement system used by Immigration and Customs Enforcement.
The groups also questioned the data's accuracy, citing Nevada, where federal officials initially identified nearly 16,000 potential noncitizen voters. The figure was later reduced to 185, all of whom state officials determined were U.S. citizens.
The plaintiffs want a federal court to halt the program, prohibit further use or sharing of the records and order DHS to delete the information already collected.
Debate Recap
This week’s debate schedule and where to rewatch.
Georgia Governor: Republican Rick Jackson skipped Monday’s Atlanta Press Club debate, leaving Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms to answer questions next to an empty podium. Watch the debate
Georgia U.S. Senate: Democrat Jon Ossoff and Republican Mike Collins met Tuesday for their second and final scheduled debate, hosted by the Atlanta Press Club. Watch the debate
Iowa Governor: Democrat Rob Sand and Republican Zach Lahn met Wednesday in Sioux City for the second of their four debates, hosted by KTIV. Watch the debate
Iowa U.S. Senate: Republican Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek met Tuesday for their second and final debate, hosted by WHO 13. Watch the debate
Los Angeles Mayor: Democrats Karen Bass and Nithya Raman met Tuesday for their only live televised debate, hosted by NBC4 and Telemundo 52. Watch the debate
Maine U.S. Senate: Republican Susan Collins and Democrat Troy Jackson debated Tuesday and Thursday, closing out their four-debate series Thursday in Bangor before a live audience. Watch the debates: Tuesday | Thursday
Massachusetts Governor: Democrat Maura Healey and Republican Mike Minogue met Thursday for their second and final debate, hosted by WCVB, WBUR and The Boston Globe. Watch the debate
Massachusetts U.S. Senate: Democrat Ed Markey and Republican John Deaton met Tuesday for their only scheduled debate, hosted by WBZ. Watch the debate
Michigan Governor: Democrat Jocelyn Benson and Republican John James met Thursday in Detroit for their second and final debate, hosted by WDIV. Watch the debate
New York Governor: Democrat Kathy Hochul and Republican Bruce Blakeman met Tuesday for their only scheduled debate, hosted by Spectrum News. Watch the debate
New York’s 17th Congressional District: Republican Mike Lawler and Democrat Cait Conley met Wednesday for their final debate, hosted by PIX11. Watch the debate
South Carolina U.S. Senate: Republican Darline Graham and Democrat Annie Andrews met Sunday for their only scheduled debate, joined by Libertarian Kasie Whitener. Watch the debate
Fundraising Roundup
Latest campaign finance filings, cash-on-hand totals, and notable donor activity.
Talarico Posts Record $64 Million Quarter in Texas U.S. Senate Race
Democrat James Talarico raised $64 million in the third quarter in his race against Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, the largest third-quarter haul on record for a U.S. Senate candidate in any state and more than triple the $18 million Paxton reported. The campaign said 97% of donations were under $100 and that Talarico has now raised more than $134 million from over 1.3 million individual contributors since launching in September 2025.
Ossoff Raises Over $33 Million in Third Quarter in Georgia U.S. Senate Race
Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff raised more than $33 million to his campaign account in the third quarter in his race against Republican Mike Collins. The haul came from over 760,000 contributions averaging $46, with nearly 97% at $100 or less. Since January 2025, the campaign has taken donations from all 159 Georgia counties. Ossoff has also transferred more than $3.6 million to the Democratic Party of Georgia to boost candidates down the ballot.
Cooper Raises More Than $19.5 Million in Third Quarter in North Carolina U.S. Senate Race
Democrat Roy Cooper raised more than $19.5 million in the third quarter in his race against Republican Michael Whatley. More than 95% of donations were $100 or less, with contributions coming from all 100 North Carolina counties. The haul lands as Republicans pull back from the state: the Senate Leadership Fund canceled its October advertising after spending more than $30 million, and Whatley’s campaign briefly paused its own television ads.
Peltola Posts Record $17 Million Quarter in Alaska U.S. Senate Race
Democrat Mary Peltola raised $17 million in the third quarter in her challenge to Republican U.S. Senator Dan Sullivan, her largest quarterly haul of the cycle and a record third-quarter total for any Alaska Senate U.S. candidate. The campaign reported contributions from more than 150 communities statewide, with roughly 95% of donations at $100 or less, though it again declined to disclose cash on hand.
Hamilton Raises $10.6 Million in Kansas U.S. Senate Race
Democrat Adam Hamilton raised $10.6 million in the third quarter across his Senate campaign and joint fundraising committees in his challenge to Republican Senator Roger Marshall. The haul dwarfs his previous record-setting $3.7 million launch quarter and reflects growing Democratic interest in a state that has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1932.
Brown Raises $28.2 Million in Third Quarter in Ohio U.S. Senate Race
Democrat Sherrod Brown raised more than $28.2 million in the third quarter in his race against Republican Jon Husted, including $23.1 million to his campaign committee and $5.1 million to affiliated fundraising committees. The campaign reported nearly 200,000 donors in the quarter, about 60,000 of them first-time contributors, with an average grassroots donation of $39.63, 95% of individual donations at $100 or less, and money coming from all 88 Ohio counties.
Pappas Raises More Than $8.1 Million in New Hampshire U.S. Senate Race
Democrat Chris Pappas raised more than $8.1 million in the third quarter in his race against Republican John E. Sununu. Ninety-five percent of contributions were $100 or less, with more than 47,300 new donors joining this quarter, bringing the campaign’s total to over 165,000 unique donors from 227 New Hampshire towns and cities.
Data & Polling Roundup
New polling and data insights on the current electoral landscape and emerging trends.
Jackson Leads Collins by 2 in Maine U.S. Senate Race; Pingree Ahead for Governor
Democrat Troy Jackson leads Republican U.S. Senator Susan Collins 49% to 47% in a new Suffolk University poll, with 3.8% undecided. The survey included 500 likely Maine voters October 8–11, with an estimated margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
Collins' favorability stands at 45.6%, with 50% viewing her unfavorably. President Trump's job approval is 37%, with 57.4% disapproving.
In the governor's race, Democrat Hannah Pingree leads Republican Robert Charles 49.4% to 38%, with independent Rick Bennett at 7.6%.
Two New Polls Show Close Texas U.S. Senate and Governor's Races
New polls show competitive U.S. Senate and governor's races in Texas, with Democrats leading narrowly in several statewide contests.
A Marist poll finds Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton 47% to 45% in the U.S. Senate race, while Republican Governor Greg Abbott leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa 49% to 45%.
A separate University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll shows Talarico ahead 50% to 47% and Hinojosa leading Abbott 49% to 48%. Democrats also hold narrow leads for lieutenant governor and attorney general, while Republicans lead by one point for comptroller and railroad commissioner.
The University of Texas poll found 72% of Democrats enthusiastic about voting, compared with 62% of Republicans. Talarico also leads independents by a wide margin, although both surveys show Republicans narrowly ahead on the generic congressional ballot.
President Trump's approval stands at 46% in the Marist poll and 42% in the University of Texas survey. Both polls found widespread concern about the economy and rising costs.
Marist surveyed 1,196 registered voters October 8–11, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points among likely voters. The University of Texas surveyed 861 likely voters September 25–October 5, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.34 percentage points.
Turek Leads by 3 in Iowa U.S. Senate Race; Sand Ahead by 7 for Governor
Democrat Josh Turek leads Republican Ashley Hinson 48% to 45% in Iowa's U.S. Senate race, according to a new Marist poll of likely voters. Among independents, Turek leads 51% to 31%.
In the governor's race, Democrat Rob Sand leads Republican Zach Lahn 52% to 45%, with a wider 67% to 26% advantage among independents.
Despite Turek's narrow lead, 59% of likely voters expect Hinson to win. Meanwhile, 50% expect Sand to win the governor's race, compared with 45% who predict a Lahn victory.
Republicans lead the generic congressional ballot 50% to 47%. President Trump's job approval stands at 44%, with 53% disapproving. The poll also found 42% of voters say their personal finances have worsened over the past year.
Marist surveyed 1,100 registered voters October 8–11. The margin of error is plus or minus 6.6 percentage points among likely voters and 4.5 points among registered voters.
Flanagan Leads Tafoya by 4 in Minnesota U.S. Senate Race
Democratic Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan leads Republican Michele Tafoya 47% to 43% in a new Star Tribune/KARE 11 Minnesota Poll, with 9% undecided. The poll surveyed 800 registered voters October 5–7 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
Flanagan leads 63% to 26% in Hennepin and Ramsey counties, while Tafoya leads in northern Minnesota 54% to 37% and southern Minnesota 55% to 38%. The Twin Cities suburbs remain closely divided, with Tafoya ahead 46% to 44%.
Tafoya leads men 54% to 38%, while Flanagan leads women 55% to 34%. Among independents, Tafoya leads 40% to 35%, with 24% undecided.
President Trump's approval rating stands at 38%, with 58% disapproving.
Johnson Leads Finstad by 2 in Minnesota's 1st District.
Democrat Jake Johnson leads Republican U.S. Representative Brad Finstad 46% to 44% in a new SurveyUSA/KAAL-TV poll of Minnesota's 1st Congressional District, with 10% undecided. The poll surveyed 565 likely voters October 4–9 and has a credibility interval of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.
Johnson leads independents by 19 points, moderates by 24 points, and college graduates by 15 points. He also leads in urban and suburban areas, while Finstad leads rural voters by eight points.
Inflation and the cost of living ranked as voters' top concern at 36%, followed by fraud at 24%. Johnson leads voters most concerned about inflation 62% to 27%, while Finstad leads those focused on fraud 88% to 3%.
The close race comes in a district President Trump carried by 12 points in 2024, when Finstad won reelection by 17 points.
Luria Leads Kiggans by 3 in Virginia's 2nd District
Democrat Elaine Luria leads Republican U.S. Representative Jen Kiggans 46% to 43% in a new Christopher Newport University Wason Center poll, with 10% undecided. The poll surveyed 702 likely voters October 1–10 and has a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.
Luria leads women 57% to 36% and independents 45% to 38%, while Kiggans leads men 49% to 37%. President Trump's job approval stands at 33%, with 62% disapproving.
The cost of living ranks as voters' top concern at 24%, followed by threats to democracy at 20% and immigration at 11%. Luria leads Kiggans on voter trust across 10 of 12 policy issues tested.
The race is a rematch of 2022, when Kiggans defeated Luria by three points. The district is among the competitive Republican-held House seats Democrats are contesting as they seek to regain the majority in November.
Foulkes Leads Block by 9 in Rhode Island Governor's Race; Lieutenant Governor Race Tied
Democrat Helena Foulkes leads independent Ken Block 44% to 35% in a new 12 News/Emerson College poll, with Republican Aaron Guckian at 10% and 9% undecided. The poll surveyed 800 likely voters October 8–11 and has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
Foulkes' lead has narrowed from 24 points in August to nine points. She leads women and voters under 50, while Block leads independents, men and voters 60 and older. Among Republicans, 53% support Block, compared with 12% for Guckian.
The lieutenant governor's race is nearly tied, with Republican John Loughlin leading Democratic incumbent Sabina Matos 45% to 44%, with 12% undecided.
Democrats hold larger leads in the state's congressional races. U.S. Senator Jack Reed leads Republican Ray McKay 59% to 25%, while U.S. Representatives Gabe Amo and Seth Magaziner lead their respective races by 28 and 16 points.
Democrats Lead All Five Arizona Statewide Races in New Poll
Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs leads Republican Andy Biggs 50.5% to 33.7% in a new HighGround Public Affairs poll, with Democrats ahead in all five statewide races surveyed.
Secretary of State Adrian Fontes leads Republican Alexander Kolodin by nearly 12 points, while Attorney General Kris Mayes leads Republican Warren Petersen by 15. In the open-seat races, Democrat Nick Mansour leads Elijah Norton 44.5% to 35.3% for treasurer, and Teresa Leyba Ruiz leads Kimberly Yee 44.7% to 38.3% for superintendent of public instruction.
Hobbs leads independent voters 58% to 20.5%. The poll also found Republican candidates received roughly 68% to 75% support from their own-party voters, with some backing Democrats instead.
The survey included 400 likely voters from October 6–8 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.