Weekly Election Update (October 19-23)

Top Election Developments

A weekly recap of major election news: key race developments, candidate moves, and shifts that could shape upcoming contests.

More Than 21.7 Million Ballots Cast as Early Voting Surges Nationwide

More than 21.7 million ballots have been cast in the 2026 midterm elections, according to the University of Florida Election Lab’s early voting tracker, as voting activity accelerates nationwide.

As of 10:45 a.m. Eastern on Friday, October 23, 21,783,791 ballots had been cast nationwide, including 9,358,412 in-person votes and 12,425,379 mail ballots returned. Another 59.1 million mail ballots have been requested.

Early voting has nearly tripled, up from 7.3 million ballots reported last week. In-person voting now accounts for 43% of ballots cast, up from 26% a week earlier, as more states open polling locations.

Texas has recorded particularly strong participation, with early voting running 74% ahead of the comparable point in 2022. Dallas County reported a single-day record of 76,079 in-person votes Monday, while Harris County also recorded unusually high turnout. Kansas has more than doubled its 2022 pace, and Maine, North Carolina, and Ohio each report increases exceeding 30%.

Early voting continues this weekend, with New York and New Jersey opening in-person voting Saturday and additional Florida counties beginning their early voting periods.

The growing early vote provides an early indication of voter participation, although higher turnout does not necessarily favor either party. Differences in voting methods, state election schedules and ballot reporting make direct comparisons with previous elections difficult.

With Election Day set for November 3, follow all 435 U.S. House races, every U.S. Senate contest and every governor’s race through our 2026 Elections Tracker.

Readers can also explore potential outcomes using our interactive U.S. Senate map and interactive governor map, or make their own picks through our Election Prediction Market.

Ramaswamy Faces Growing Backlash Over $4 Million Attack Ad Against Acton

Republican Ohio gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy is facing mounting criticism from members of his own party over a $4 million attack ad featuring the estranged mother of his Democratic opponent, Amy Acton, who accuses her daughter of lying about her childhood.

Court records and news reports support Acton’s account of childhood sexual abuse. Her stepfather was arrested and indicted in 1978 on a charge of raping her when she was 12. He subsequently fled Ohio with Acton's mother, avoiding trial. Acton was removed from her mother's custody and says she has not seen her since 1978.

Acton’s campaign released a response ad featuring her brother, Phil Stearns, who defended his sister and described how she protected him from abuse during their childhood. He condemned Ramaswamy for using their family’s traumatic history as a political attack.

The commercial has prompted sharp criticism from Republicans. Ohio Governor Mike DeWine called the ad deeply troubling and urged Ramaswamy to withdraw it, although he maintained his endorsement. U.S. Senator Jon Husted and Secretary of State Frank LaRose also distanced themselves from the attack.

The criticism has extended beyond Ohio. Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley called Ramaswamy a bad guy, while Iowa Republican U.S. Senate candidate Ashley Hinson called for the ad’s removal. Former Ohio House Speaker Ryan Smith also criticized Ramaswamy, accusing him of embarrassing the party.

President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance have defended Ramaswamy. Trump publicly urged him to continue airing the commercial and criticized DeWine for opposing it, while Vance dismissed Republican objections and told party members to stop complaining about the ad.

Ramaswamy has refused to withdraw the commercial and plans to spend $4 million airing it statewide. The controversy comes less than two weeks before Election Day, with recent polling showing Acton holding a narrow lead in Ohio’s closely contested governor’s race.

Supreme Court Allows New Hampshire to Enforce Student ID Voting Restriction Ahead of Midterms

The U.S. Supreme Court ruled Thursday that New Hampshire can enforce restrictions on the use of student identification cards in the November 3 midterm elections, granting an emergency request backed by the Republican National Committee.

The decision blocks an October 2 federal court order that would have allowed student IDs to serve as supporting evidence for voters without other qualifying identification. The justices relied on the Purcell principle, which discourages federal courts from changing election procedures shortly before an election. Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson dissented, arguing that the lower court had clarified existing requirements rather than changed them.

Voting rights advocates argue the restrictions create unnecessary barriers for eligible voters.

The ruling comes as New Hampshire prepares for a competitive U.S. Senate election between Democrat Chris Pappas and Republican John E. Sununu for the seat being vacated by retiring Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen. The restriction will remain in effect for November, although the underlying legal challenge remains unresolved.

Federal Judge Blocks DHS Voter Interviews in Nine States Ahead of Election Day

A federal judge temporarily blocked the Department of Homeland Security on Wednesday from conducting certain voter-related interviews in nine states, finding that the administration’s efforts to investigate suspected noncitizen voters could intimidate eligible Americans ahead of the November 3 midterm elections.

U.S. District Judge Araceli Martínez-Olguín restricted DHS agents from conducting election-related field interviews in California, Connecticut, Georgia, Missouri, Nevada, New York, Pennsylvania, Washington and Wisconsin when they know or reasonably should suspect an individual is a U.S. citizen.

Court records showed agents were expected to investigate at least 40 suspected cases, relying on commercial databases and interviews lasting no more than 12 minutes per person to assess citizenship. The judge described the government’s target list as “voluminous and unreliable” and found that the plaintiffs were likely to succeed on their Voting Rights Act claim involving voter intimidation.

The lawsuit was brought by voting rights organizations, labor groups and local governments, including the Voto Latino Foundation, National Nurses United, San Francisco and Santa Clara County. Plaintiffs argued that the investigations could discourage eligible citizens from voting.

The judge delayed enforcement of the order until 5 p.m. Friday to allow the administration to appeal. Unless modified, the restrictions will remain in effect through Election Day. The ruling does not prohibit all DHS election investigations but limits interviews that could interfere with the voting rights of U.S. citizens.

Democratic Leaders File New Lawsuit Against Trump Administration Over Election Interference

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, and several Democratic organizations filed a new lawsuit Tuesday seeking to block the Trump administration from interfering in the November 3 midterm elections.

The lawsuit follows a separate case Democratic leaders filed in September seeking to prevent the administration from deploying armed federal agents to polling places. The latest complaint focuses on threats of criminal prosecution against election officials and efforts to prevent registered voters from having their ballots counted.

The case follows the Justice Department's lawsuit against California, which seeks to require additional citizenship checks for about 20,000 voters it claims may be ineligible. Democrats also cite Nevada, where federal officials initially flagged nearly 16,000 suspected noncitizens before narrowing the list to 185 people whom state officials determined were U.S. citizens.

The plaintiffs argue the administration's actions violate the Voting Rights Act and states' authority to administer elections. They want a federal court to prohibit unlawful voter removals, interference with ballot counting, and intimidation of election officials.

Federal Judge Allows North Carolina's New Absentee Ballot Rules to Remain in Effect

U.S. District Judge Thomas Schroeder ruled Monday that North Carolina can continue enforcing new absentee ballot requirements ahead of the November 3 election, denying a request from voting rights groups to temporarily block the rules.

The State Board of Elections adopted the requirements in a party-line vote on September 4. Ballots returned in an unsealed inner envelope or without the required inner envelope cannot be counted. County election officials must send replacement ballots to affected voters. The rules also require officials to verify voter signatures.

Schroeder found that the requirements did not impose an undue burden on voters and criticized the plaintiffs for waiting 18 days to file their lawsuit. He also cited Supreme Court guidance discouraging changes to election procedures close to Election Day.

At an October 14 hearing, state officials reported that 31,582 absentee ballots had already been cast under the new rules. The lawsuit remains pending, but the requirements will stay in effect unless a court orders otherwise.

Debate Recap

This week’s debate schedule and where to rewatch.

Connecticut Governor: Democratic Governor Ned Lamont and Republican Ryan Fazio met Thursday at WFSB studios in Rocky Hill for the first of two televised debates, hosted by WFSB and CT Insider. Watch the debate 

Illinois U.S. Senate: Democrat Juliana Stratton and Republican Don Tracy met Tuesday in Chicago for their first and only debate, hosted by WTTW News. Watch the debate

Kansas U.S. Senate: Republican Senator Roger Marshall and Democrat Adam Hamilton met Wednesday for their final debate, hosted by FOX4 Kansas City. Watch the debate

Kentucky U.S. Senate: Republican Representative Andy Barr and Democrat Charles Booker met Monday in Lexington for their only debate, hosted by WKYT and Gray Media stations with the League of Women Voters of Kentucky. Watch the debate

Michigan U.S. Senate: Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers met Wednesday in Southfield for their second and final debate, hosted by WXYZ-TV. Watch the debate

Minnesota Governor: Democrat Amy Klobuchar and Republican Lisa Demuth met twice this week: first on Monday at a Minnesota Chamber of Commerce forum in Brainerd, and again on Wednesday in Rochester for their final debate, co-produced by FOX 9 and Gray Media stations. Watch the debate

New York’s 24th Congressional District: Republican Representative Claudia Tenney and Democrat Alissa Ellman met Tuesday for their first and only debate, broadcast by Nexstar’s Rochester and Syracuse stations. Watch the debate

Pennsylvania’s 9th Congressional District: Republican Representative Dan Meuser and Democrat Rachel Wallace met Tuesday at Penn State Schuylkill for their only scheduled debate. Watch the debate

Rhode Island Governor: Democrat Helena Foulkes, Republican Aaron Guckian and independent Ken Block met Tuesday at Rhode Island College for their final televised debate, hosted by WPRI 12 News. Watch the debate

Vermont Governor: Republican Governor Phil Scott and Democrat Amanda Janoo met Wednesday for the first of three debates, hosted by Vermont Public, and again Thursday on WPTZ. Watch the debates: Wednesday | Thursday

Wisconsin Governor: Democrat David Crowley and Republican Tom Tiffany met Wednesday at Marquette University Law School for their only debate of the cycle, hosted by WISN 12. Watch the debate

Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District: Republican Representative Derrick Van Orden and Democrat Rebecca Cooke met Tuesday in Eau Claire for a debate hosted by the Eau Claire Area Chamber of Commerce and WEAU 13 News. Watch the debate

Fundraising Roundup

Latest campaign finance filings, cash-on-hand totals, and notable donor activity.

AIPAC Ends Congressional Endorsements and Direct Contributions

The American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) announced Wednesday it will stop endorsing congressional candidates, making direct PAC contributions and allowing donors to earmark contributions for specific campaigns.

AIPAC will instead encourage its members to contribute directly to candidates. The organization said its members have given more than $90 million to candidates this election cycle.

Its affiliated super PAC, United Democracy Project, will continue operating after spending heavily in congressional races, including efforts opposing Democrat Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan’s U.S. Senate election. The decision ends AIPAC’s formal endorsement and direct contribution program but does not end its involvement in federal campaigns.

Bloomberg Commits $80 Million to Democrats

Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg is directing about $80 million to Democratic candidates and organizations in September and October, with at least $50 million focused on U.S. House races.

The spending includes $16 million for House Majority PAC and $24 million for Everytown for Gun Safety. Bloomberg has also contributed to groups supporting Democrat James Talarico in Texas’s U.S. Senate race and Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul in New York.

The contributions are intended to help Democrats compete across a wider range of congressional districts as the party seeks to regain control of the House.

Trump’s Political Groups Spend Nearly $277 Million in Final Midterm Push

President Trump’s political organizations have spent nearly $277 million since early September supporting Republican candidates, according to an Associated Press review of campaign finance disclosures.

MAGA Inc., Trump’s principal super PAC, transferred $200 million to No Going Back PAC and another $25 million to Safety & Affordability PAC to finance advertising and voter outreach.

MAGA Inc. still held approximately $164 million as of October 14. Trump said this week that his political operation expects to spend more than $400 million by Election Day, including advertising, rallies and voter mobilization efforts.

Data & Polling Roundup

New polling and data insights on the current electoral landscape and emerging trends.

Trump Approval Falls to New Lows as Democrats Lead Congressional Ballot by 11 Points

Democrats lead Republicans 52% to 41% on the generic congressional ballot, according to a New York Times/Siena poll. President Donald Trump’s approval rating stands at 36%, with 59% disapproving.

Trump gets his lowest ratings on the cost of living, with 29% approving and 69% disapproving, and on gas prices, with just 24% approving and 73% disapproving. Voters also favor Democrats over Republicans on the economy, health care, corruption, foreign wars and artificial intelligence.

Three other national polls released this week show Trump reaching new lows: CNN/SSRS at 32% approval, Washington Post/ABC/Ipsos at 33%, and NBC News at 34%.

A separate CNBC All-America Economic Survey released Thursday found Trump’s approval on the economy at 34%, with 65% disapproving, his lowest economic rating in the survey across both presidential terms.

The New York Times/Siena poll surveyed 3,494 voters October 12–19 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.9 percentage points.

Peltola Leads Sullivan in Alaska U.S. Senate Race; Kreiss-Tomkins Ahead for Governor

Democrat Mary Peltola leads Republican U.S. Senator Dan Sullivan 47% to 44% in the first round of Alaska’s ranked-choice U.S. Senate election, according to a new Data for Progress poll. Peltola wins the final round 51% to 49% among ballots remaining in the count, although the race is tied at 50% apiece when exhausted ballots are included.

In the governor’s race, Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins leads Republican Bernadette Wilson 46% to 28% in the first round and 53% to 47% in the final round.

Republican U.S. Representative Nick Begich leads Democrat Hill 48% to 42% in the state’s at-large House race, with his advantage narrowing to 51% to 49% after ranked-choice tabulation.

President Trump’s approval rating in Alaska stands at 47%, with 53% disapproving.

The poll surveyed 694 likely voters October 8–16 and has a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.

Three New Polls Show Tight Texas U.S. Senate Race Between Talarico and Paxton

Three new polls show Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton locked in a close race for Texas’s U.S. Senate seat, with Talarico leading narrowly in two surveys and the candidates tied in a third.

A Fox News poll finds Talarico and Paxton tied at 49% among likely voters, although Talarico leads 52% to 46% among registered voters. Talarico leads Hispanic voters 64% to 34%, while Paxton maintains strong support among rural voters and white evangelicals.

An Emerson College/Nexstar poll shows Talarico leading 48% to 46%, with 6% undecided. The survey included 1,000 likely voters from October 17–19 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

A separate University of Houston Hobby School poll, conducted October 10–14 among 2,000 likely voters, also finds Talarico ahead 48% to 46%.

In the governor’s race, Republican Greg Abbott leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa 52% to 47% in the Fox News poll and 49% to 45% in Emerson’s survey. Republicans also lead in the other statewide contests the University of Houston tested.

According to Fox News, President Trump’s approval rating in Texas stands at 45%, with 54% disapproving.

Hinson Leads Turek by 3 in Iowa U.S. Senate Race; Sand Ahead by 4 for Governor

Republican Ashley Hinson leads Democrat Josh Turek 48% to 45% in Iowa’s U.S. Senate race, according to a new co/efficient poll, with Libertarian Thomas Laehn receiving 2% and 6% undecided. In a head-to-head matchup, Hinson leads Turek 49% to 46%.

In the governor’s race, Democrat Rob Sand leads Republican Zach Lahn 49% to 45%, with 6% undecided. Sand has a stronger favorability rating: 49% view him favorably and 37% unfavorably, compared with 36% favorable and 44% unfavorable for Lahn.

Republicans also hold a narrow 48% to 46% advantage on the generic congressional ballot, with 6% undecided.

President Trump’s approval rating in Iowa stands at 42%, with 52% disapproving. The findings come as Democrats compete for statewide offices in a state Trump carried by 13 points in 2024.

The poll surveyed 863 likely voters October 15–19 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.32 percentage points.

Brown Leads Husted by 5 in Ohio U.S. Senate Race; Acton Ahead for Governor

Democrat Sherrod Brown leads Republican U.S. Senator Jon Husted 52% to 47% in Ohio’s special U.S. Senate election, according to a new Fox News poll. In the governor’s race, Democrat Amy Acton leads Republican Vivek Ramaswamy 50% to 48%.

Brown leads women by 14 points, while Husted leads men by four. Among voters who say their finances have worsened over the past two years, Brown holds a 49-point advantage. Brown also leads by 29 points among those who have already voted.

A separate Marist poll, conducted October 15–18, shows Brown leading Husted 48% to 44% and Acton ahead of Ramaswamy 50% to 43%. Independents favor Brown 50% to 35% and Acton 53% to 34%.

President Trump’s approval rating in Ohio stands at 43%, with 57% disapproving, according to the Fox News survey.

El-Sayed Leads Rogers by 2 in Michigan U.S. Senate Race; Benson Ahead by 6 for Governor

Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers 50% to 48% in Michigan’s U.S. Senate race, according to a new Marist poll of likely voters. El-Sayed leads independents 50% to 44%, while his overall advantage widens to seven points among registered voters.

In the governor’s race, Democrat Jocelyn Benson leads Republican John James 51% to 45% among likely voters, with an 11-point advantage among registered voters.

President Trump’s approval rating in Michigan stands at 42%, with 57% disapproving. The poll also found 44% of voters describe their congressional vote as opposition to Trump, compared with 18% who say they are voting to support him.

Economic concerns remain widespread, with 43% of voters reporting their family finances have worsened over the past year.

Marist surveyed 1,185 registered voters October 15–18, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points among likely voters.

Ossoff Leads Collins by 8 in Georgia U.S. Senate Race; Governor’s Race Nearly Tied

Democratic U.S. Senator Jon Ossoff leads Republican Mike Collins 48% to 40% in Georgia’s U.S. Senate race, according to a new Atlanta Journal-Constitution/University of Georgia poll, with 12% undecided. Ossoff leads independents 49% to 30%, while male voters are evenly divided.

The governor’s race is much closer, with Republican Rick Jackson leading Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms 46% to 45%. Jackson has the support of 94% of Republicans, compared with 86% for Collins.

The AJC poll surveyed 1,000 likely voters October 7–15 with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

Florida Polls Show Republicans Lead in Key Statewide Races by Varying Margins

Republican U.S. Senator Ashley Moody leads Democrat Angie Nixon 49% to 45% in Florida’s U.S. Senate race, according to a new University of North Florida poll that includes undecided voters’ preferences. In the governor’s race, Republican Byron Donalds leads Democrat David Jolly 49% to 47%, down from a five-point advantage in July.

Independents favor both Democrats, backing Nixon by 15 points and Jolly by 16. The survey also found that 25% of voters said Republican messaging about Nixon’s ties to the Democratic Socialists of America made them less likely to support her.

A separate co/efficient poll shows wider Republican advantages, with Donalds leading Jolly 49% to 40% and Moody ahead of Nixon 48% to 40%.

The University of North Florida surveyed 1,471 likely voters October 12–19, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.81 percentage points. Co/efficient surveyed 1,014 likely voters October 18–20.

Healey Leads Minogue by 25 Points in Massachusetts Governor’s Race; Markey Ahead by 27

Democratic Governor Maura Healey leads Republican Mike Minogue 57% to 32% in Massachusetts’ governor’s race, according to a new University of Massachusetts Amherst/WCVB poll, with independent Andrea James receiving 6%.

Healey leads women 66% to 24%, while men favor her by a narrower 47% to 42%. Her job approval stands at 58%, its highest level since February 2025. Voters also favor Healey over Minogue by at least 20 points on abortion, education, health care, immigration and crime.

In the U.S. Senate race, Democratic Senator Ed Markey leads Republican John Deaton 56% to 29%. Democratic incumbents also hold substantial advantages in the state’s other statewide contests.

Democrats report greater enthusiasm ahead of the midterms, with 54% describing themselves as very enthusiastic compared with 42% of Republicans. The poll also found that more than 80% of voters believe Minogue and President Trump share similar positions on major policy issues.

The poll surveyed 800 registered voters October 5–12 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

Hochul Leads Blakeman by 14 Points in New York Governor’s Race

Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul leads Republican Bruce Blakeman 55% to 41% among likely voters, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll. Her 14-point advantage is down from 19 points in September, when she led 58% to 39%.

Hochul leads 70% to 24% in New York City, while Blakeman holds narrow advantages upstate and in the suburbs. Independents favor Blakeman 51% to 44%. Hochul leads women by 25 points, while men are nearly evenly divided.

Despite trailing overall, Blakeman’s supporters report greater enthusiasm, with 65% describing themselves as very enthusiastic compared with 33% of Hochul’s supporters. However, 87% of likely voters say they are unlikely to change their minds.

Hochul’s job approval stands at 49%, with 45% disapproving. President Trump’s approval in New York is 34%, with 60% disapproving.

The poll surveyed 1,167 likely voters October 15–19 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.

Wilson Leads Johnson by 16 Points in South Carolina Governor’s Race

Republican Alan Wilson leads Democrat Jermaine Johnson 52.5% to 36.5% in South Carolina’s governor’s race, according to a new Trafalgar Group poll, with 5.2% undecided.

Wilson leads among voters 65 and older by 36 points and holds a 60% to 30% advantage among white voters. Johnson performs strongest among younger voters, leading 57% to 36% among those ages 18–29 and 54% to 30% among voters ages 30–39.

In the attorney general’s race, Republican David Stumbo leads Democrat Richard Hricik 52.2% to 37%. Republican Cody Simpson also leads Democrat DeShawn Blanding 50.7% to 33.3% in the agriculture commissioner race.

The poll surveyed 1,095 likely voters October 16–18 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.

Becerra Leads Hilton by 27 Points in California Governor’s Race

Democrat Xavier Becerra leads Republican Steve Hilton 60% to 33% in California’s governor’s race, according to a new Emerson College poll, with 7% undecided. Including undecided voters, Becerra’s lead stands at 64% to 36%. Independents favor Becerra 46% to 36%.

The economy remains voters’ top concern at 45%, followed by housing affordability at 17%. When asked who bears most responsibility for California’s economic conditions, 44% blame President Trump, up from 27% a year ago, while 38% blame Governor Gavin Newsom, down from 51%.

Trump’s approval rating in California stands at 33%, with 63% disapproving. Newsom’s approval is 46%, with 43% disapproving.

The poll surveyed 1,000 likely voters October 17–19 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

Tuberville Leads Jones by 11 Points in Alabama Governor’s Race

Republican U.S. Senator Tommy Tuberville leads Democrat Doug Jones 51% to 40% in Alabama’s governor’s race, according to a new Gray Media Alabama/Alabama Daily News poll, with 9% undecided.

Tuberville holds a 54% to 37% advantage in the Birmingham region and leads 54% to 33% around Huntsville. Jones performs strongest in the Montgomery region, where he leads 49% to 45%. Tuberville also leads by 22 points among voters who participated in the last four general elections.

Despite Tuberville’s lead, voters are divided over Alabama’s direction, with 45% saying the state is on the wrong track and 42% saying it is headed in the right direction.

Tuberville’s favorability rating is 48% favorable to 44% unfavorable, while 42% view Jones favorably and 43% unfavorably.

The poll surveyed 500 likely voters on October 16–17 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.38 percentage points.

Shapiro Leads Garrity by 23 Points in Pennsylvania; Democrats Hold 14-Point Congressional Advantage.

Democratic Governor Josh Shapiro leads Republican Stacy Garrity 59% to 36% among likely voters in Pennsylvania’s governor’s race, according to a new Franklin & Marshall College poll. Democrats also lead Republicans 56% to 42% on the generic congressional ballot.

Only 29% of Pennsylvania voters rate President Trump's job performance positively, down from 41% in October 2025, while 70% rate his performance as fair or poor. Only 37% say his administration’s policies have personally benefited them.

Economic concerns remain widespread, with 45% of voters reporting their finances have worsened over the past year. Among voters who identify the economy as Pennsylvania’s most important problem, Democrats lead Republicans 46% to 21% as the party best equipped to address it.

Democrats also report greater enthusiasm ahead of the midterms, with 63% describing themselves as very interested in the election compared with 55% of Republicans.

The poll surveyed 808 registered voters October 7–18, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points among registered voters and 5.6 points among likely voters.

Rounds Leads Bengs by 8 Points in South Dakota U.S. Senate Race; Trump Approval Falls

Republican U.S. Senator Mike Rounds leads independent Brian Bengs 50% to 42% in South Dakota’s U.S. Senate race, according to a new Emerson College/KELOLAND poll.

The eight-point margin is much closer than Rounds’ 30-point reelection victory in 2020, although recent surveys show varying levels of support for the incumbent.

In the governor’s race, Republican Larry Rhoden leads Democrat Dan Ahlers 56% to 38%, maintaining a substantial Republican advantage.

President Trump’s approval rating in South Dakota stands at 44%, with 52% disapproving, leaving him eight points underwater in a state he carried comfortably in 2024.