Illustration: BallotWire
By BallotWire
10/09/2026
Top Election Developments
A weekly recap of major election news: key race developments, candidate moves, and shifts that could shape upcoming contests.
More Than 2.5 Million Ballots Cast as Early Voting Expands
More than 2.5 million voters have already cast ballots in the 2026 midterms, according to the University of Florida Election Lab’s early voting tracker as of Friday morning. Of the 2,537,555 ballots returned, 2,057,585 came by mail and 479,970 were cast in person. With 53.4 million mail ballots requested nationwide, the vast majority of early voting is still to come.
Mail ballots make up roughly 81% of the early vote so far, a share that should fall as more states open in-person early voting sites through October.
With less than a month until Election Day, BallotWire’s 2026 Elections Tracker covers all 435 U.S. House seats, every U.S. Senate contest and every governor’s race on the ballot. Predict your own election outcomes with our interactive U.S. Senate map and interactive governor map.
Trump Voters Less Enthusiastic About Midterm Elections
A new Reuters/Ipsos poll finds 48% of voters who supported Kamala Harris in 2024 are very enthusiastic about voting in the November 3 midterm elections, compared with 30% of President Trump's 2024 voters.
Among enthusiastic voters, 62% said opposition to Trump was motivating them to vote, compared with 36% who wanted to support him. Trump voters were also more undecided in congressional races, with 13% unsure of their choice compared with 7% of Harris voters.
The poll also found Democrats leading Republicans among male voters, 43% to 39%, on the congressional ballot. It marks the largest Democratic advantage among men in Reuters/Ipsos polling during Trump's second term.
Trump's job approval stood at 32%, matching his previous record low in September. The survey included 4,506 U.S. adults interviewed September 30–October 5. The voter subsample of 2,848 respondents had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
DNC Sues Trump Administration Over Taxpayer-Funded Ads
The Democratic National Committee (DNC) filed a lawsuit on October 7, accusing President Trump and his administration of illegally using taxpayer funds to run a television ad campaign promoting administration policies ahead of the midterm elections.
The lawsuit alleges Trump directed U.S. Customs and Border Protection to run the ads in violation of federal restrictions on using government funds for publicity or propaganda. The Washington Post reported that the money came from an account intended for commemorative events and ceremonies honoring Americans killed in the line of duty.
The lawsuit follows several other legal challenges Democrats have filed against the administration over election-related policies. Washington Attorney General Nick Brown, who chairs the Democratic Attorneys General Association’s election protection working group, outlined that broader effort in an October 8 op-ed in the Guardian, describing how Democratic state attorneys general are preparing to respond to potential interference in the November elections.
Crypto Super PAC Fairshake Backs 32 U.S. House Incumbents
Fairshake, a cryptocurrency industry super PAC, announced Monday it will support 32 U.S. House incumbents, including 19 Republicans and 13 Democrats, ahead of the November 3 election. The group is initially spending $6 million across six races, with $1 million going to each candidate.
Democrats: Pete Aguilar (CA), Jimmy Panetta (CA), Derek Tran (CA), Brendan Boyle (PA), Janelle Bynum (OR), Josh Gottheimer (NJ), Steven Horsford (NV), Jonathan Jackson (IL), Lucy McBath (GA), Sarah McBride (DE), Hillary Scholten (MI), Terri Sewell (AL) and Suhas Subramanyam (VA).
Republicans: Ben Cline (VA), Troy Downing (MT), Tom Emmer (MN), Michelle Fischbach (MN), Scott Fitzgerald (WI), Bryan Steil (WI), Mike Haridopolos (FL), Pat Harrigan (NC), David Rouzer (NC), French Hill (AR), Bill Huizenga (MI), Lisa McClain (MI), Brian Jack (GA), Austin Scott (GA), Frank Lucas (OK), August Pfluger (TX), Guy Reschenthaler (PA), G.T. Thompson (PA) and Jason Smith (MO).
All 32 lawmakers voted for the CLARITY Act in 2025, a cryptocurrency regulation bill that failed to advance in the U.S. Senate last month.
Republican Super PAC Commits $5 Million to South Carolina U.S. Senate Race
The Senate Leadership Fund, a Republican super PAC, is spending $5 million to support U.S. Senator Darline Graham against Democrat Dr. Annie Andrews. The investment comes as recent polls show a close race in a state President Trump won by nearly 18 points in 2024.
Trafalgar polling shows Graham leading 43% to 42%, while InsiderAdvantage has her ahead 46% to 45%. Andrews has spent $6.1 million on advertising since September and has raised more money than Graham, who was appointed to the U.S. Senate in July after her brother U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham died.
DCCC Adds Six Candidates to Red to Blue Program
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) added six candidates to its Red to Blue program on October 5, bringing the total to 46 with less than a month until Election Day. The program provides Democratic candidates in targeted U.S. House races with campaign, fundraising, and organizational support.
The new candidates are Chris Jones in Arkansas' 2nd District, Dwayne Romero in Colorado's 3rd, Eliott Rodriguez in Florida's 27th, Teresa Benitez-Thompson in Nevada's 2nd, Blake Gendebien in New York's 21st and State Representative Justin J. Pearson in Tennessee's 9th.
Debate Watch
Upcoming debate dates, times, and where to watch.
Midterm Candidates Face Off in Debates Across the Country
With less than a month to go before the November 3 midterms, candidates in several closely watched U.S. Senate, U.S. House, and gubernatorial races squared off in debates this week.
Georgia Governor: Republican Rick Jackson and Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms debated Tuesday in an Atlanta News First town hall, their only scheduled meeting. Watch the debate
Georgia U.S. Senate: Democrat Jon Ossoff and Republican Mike Collins debated Thursday in Atlanta. Watch the debate
Iowa Governor: Democrat Rob Sand and Republican Zach Lahn held their first debate Tuesday in Davenport. Watch the debate
Iowa U.S. Senate: Democrat Josh Turek and Republican Ashley Hinson debated Wednesday. Watch the debate
Maine U.S. Senate: Republican Susan Collins and Democrat Troy Jackson debated Tuesday and Thursday, with two more debates scheduled next week. Watch the debates: Tuesday | Thursday
Maryland Governor: Democrat Wes Moore and Republican Dan Cox debated Tuesday in their only scheduled meeting, hosted by Maryland Public Television. Watch the debate
Michigan Governor: Democrat Jocelyn Benson and Republican John James debated Tuesday. Watch the debate
Michigan U.S. Senate: Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers met Thursday in Grand Rapids for the first of two debates. Watch the debate
Michigan's 7th Congressional District: Republican Tom Barrett and Democrat William Lawrence met Tuesday in East Lansing for their first debate. Watch the debate
Pennsylvania Governor: Democrat Josh Shapiro and Republican Stacy Garrity held their only scheduled debate Wednesday in Harrisburg. Watch the debate
South Carolina Governor: Republican Alan Wilson and Democrat Jermaine Johnson met Tuesday in Columbia for their only scheduled debate. Watch the debate
South Carolina's 1st Congressional District: Republican Jenny Costa Honeycutt and Democrat Nancy Lacore met Wednesday for the first of two debates in the race for the open seat. Watch the debate
Fundraising Roundup
Latest campaign finance filings, cash-on-hand totals, and notable donor activity.
Hinojosa Raises $25 Million in Texas Governor’s Race
Democrat Gina Hinojosa has raised more than $25 million in her campaign against Republican Governor Greg Abbott, including $3 million in the past 10 days. A recent New York Times/Siena poll showed Hinojosa leading 49% to 46%, although Abbott maintains a large financial advantage.
Paxton Raises $18 Million in Texas U.S. Senate Race
Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton raised more than $18 million in the third quarter, his largest quarterly total. Paxton has also launched a $20 million statewide advertising campaign.
Bennett Raises $4 Million in New Jersey’s 7th District
Democrat Rebecca Bennett raised roughly $4 million in the third quarter, bringing her total to more than $8 million in her race against Republican U.S. Representative Tom Kean Jr. Her campaign reported more than 44,000 donors, with over 90% contributing $100 or less.
Johnson Raises $700,000 in South Carolina Governor’s Race
Democrat Jermaine Johnson raised $700,000 in the third quarter, his strongest fundraising period so far. Johnson launched a statewide streaming ad campaign on October 3 in his race against Republican Attorney General Alan Wilson, who has not yet released his third-quarter fundraising figures.
Data & Polling Roundup
New polling and data insights on the current electoral landscape and emerging trends.
Moore Leads Cox by 27 Points in Maryland Governor's Race
Democratic Governor Wes Moore leads Republican Dan Cox 51% to 24% in a new UMBC Poll of the Maryland governor's race. Green Party candidate Andy Ellis and Working Class Party candidate Cathy White each receive 3%, while 14% are undecided.
Moore receives support from 72% of Democrats, while Cox takes 75% of Republicans. Among unaffiliated voters, Moore leads 40% to 14%, with 27% undecided.
The poll surveyed 776 likely voters from September 22-27 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
Jackson Leads Collins by 4 in Maine U.S. Senate Race; Pingree Up 12 for Governor
Democrat Troy Jackson leads Republican U.S. Senator Susan Collins 51% to 47% among registered voters in a new Marist Poll. Jackson also leads among independents, 52% to 45%.
In the governor's race, Democrat Hannah Pingree leads Republican Bobby Charles 52% to 40%, with independent Rick Bennett at 6%. Pingree leads independents 51% to 34%.
President Trump's job approval stands at 40%, with 59% disapproving. The poll surveyed 1,505 registered voters from October 1-4 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.
El-Sayed Leads Rogers by 1 in Michigan U.S. Senate Race; Benson Up 3 for Governor
Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican former U.S. Representative Mike Rogers 49% to 48% among likely voters in a new YouGov poll of Michigan, with 2% undecided.
El-Sayed leads voters under 45, Black voters and college graduates, while Rogers leads voters 65 and older and white voters. Nearly all supporters of both candidates say they have made up their minds.
In the governor's race, Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson leads Republican U.S. Representative John James 48% to 45%, with 6% undecided. President Trump's job approval stands at 43%, with 56% disapproving.
The poll surveyed 3,949 likely voters from September 22 to October 4 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.
Hamilton Leads Marshall by 3 in Kansas U.S. Senate Race; Masterson Up 3 for Governor
Democrat Adam Hamilton leads Republican U.S. Senator Roger Marshall 48% to 45% among likely voters in a new YouGov poll of the Kansas U.S. Senate race, with 5% undecided.
Hamilton leads voters under 45 and college graduates, while Marshall holds a 55% to 39% advantage among voters 65 and older. Nearly all supporters of both candidates say they have made up their minds.
In the governor's race, Republican State Senate President Ty Masterson leads Democratic State Senator Cindy Holscher 47% to 44%, with 7% undecided.
The poll surveyed 2,255 likely Kansas voters from September 24 to October 4 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.
Kotek Edges Ahead in Oregon Governor’s Race for the First Time
A new DHM Research poll for The Oregonian/OregonLive finds Democratic Governor Tina Kotek ahead of Republican State Senator Christine Drazan, 46% to 44%, among likely voters, the first survey this cycle to put Kotek ahead. The margin remains a statistical tie.
The result caps a steady trend line. DHM’s previous surveys showed Drazan ahead by four points in late June, two points in September, and one point in late September.
Both candidates remain underwater on favorability. Drazan sits at 39% favorable and 47% unfavorable, while Kotek is at 36% favorable and 60% unfavorable.
Pritzker Up 20 Over Bailey as Democrats Lead Across Illinois
Democratic Governor JB Pritzker leads Republican Darren Bailey 54% to 34% in a new Chicago News Weekly/Public Policy Polling survey, with independent Collin Corbett at 6% and another 6% undecided.
Democrats also lead the other statewide races polled. Democrat Juliana Stratton leads Republican Don Tracy 49% to 36% for U.S. Senate. Attorney General Kwame Raoul leads Bob Fioretti 52% to 38%, Secretary of State Alexi Giannoulias leads Diane Harris 55% to 37%, and Margaret Croke leads Bryan Drew 48% to 37% for comptroller.
President Trump's job approval stands at 33%, with 61% disapproving. The poll surveyed 569 Illinois voters from September 30 to October 1.
Osborn Edges Ricketts in Nebraska U.S. Senate Race; Governor's Race Within a Point
Independent Dan Osborn leads Republican U.S. Senator Pete Ricketts 48% to 47% among likely voters in a new YouGov poll of Nebraska, with 3% undecided. In the governor's race, Republican Governor Jim Pillen leads Democrat Lynne Walz 44% to 43%, with 10% undecided.
Osborn leads voters under 45 and college graduates, while Ricketts holds a 57% to 38% advantage among voters 65 and older. Nearly all supporters of both Senate candidates say they have made up their minds.
President Trump's job approval stands at 45%, with 54% disapproving. The poll surveyed 1,809 likely voters from September 24 to October 3 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.
Haaland Leads Hull by 6 in New Mexico Governor's Race
Democrat Deb Haaland leads Republican Gregg Hull 47% to 41% among likely voters in a new KOB 4/SurveyUSA poll, with 12% undecided. The survey included 567 likely New Mexico voters.
Haaland leads women 54% to 33%, while Hull leads men 48% to 40%. Among independents, Haaland leads 44% to 34%, with 22% undecided.
31% of registered voters view Haaland favorably and 35% unfavorably. Hull is favorable to 29% and unfavorable to 21%, while 27% are unfamiliar with him.
Haaland, a former U.S. Secretary of the Interior, and Hull, the mayor of Rio Rancho, are running to succeed term-limited Democratic Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham.
Pappas Leads Sununu by 8 in New Hampshire U.S. Senate Race; Ayotte Up 9 for Governor
Democratic U.S. Representative Chris Pappas leads former Republican U.S. Senator John E. Sununu 51% to 43% among likely voters in a new YouGov poll of New Hampshire, with 4% undecided. The candidates are running to succeed retiring Democratic U.S. Senator Jeanne Shaheen.
Pappas leads voters under 50, college graduates and women, while Sununu holds a narrow advantage among men. Nearly all supporters of both candidates say they have made up their minds.
In the governor's race, Republican Governor Kelly Ayotte leads Democrat Cinde Warmington 49% to 40%, with 11% undecided. President Trump's job approval stands at 41%, with 59% disapproving.
The poll surveyed 1,520 likely voters from September 28 to October 5 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.
Donalds Leads Jolly by 7 in Florida Governor's Race
Republican U.S. Representative Byron Donalds leads Democrat David Jolly 48% to 41% in a new Mason-Dixon poll by NBC6/Telemundo Station Group. Ten percent of voters remain undecided in the race to succeed term-limited Republican Governor Ron DeSantis.
Donalds leads men 55% to 33%, while Jolly leads women 49% to 41%. Donalds also leads white and Hispanic voters, while Jolly leads Black voters 76% to 10%. Among independents, Jolly leads 47% to 28%, with 24% undecided.
The poll surveyed 625 registered voters from September 28 to October 1 and has a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.