Photo credit: Jon Ossoff for Senate
By BallotWire
10/02/2026
Top Election Developments
A weekly recap of major election news: key race developments, candidate moves, and shifts that could shape upcoming contests.
2026 Midterms Are Underway as Early Voting Expands
Voting in the 2026 midterm elections has begun, with early voting already open in several states ahead of the November 3 general election. Virginia, Minnesota, South Dakota, and Idaho opened voting on September 18, followed by Illinois on September 24. Vermont, Wyoming, and several states that require an excuse to vote absentee opened mail or in-person absentee voting in late September.
The pace picks up in October. California counties may begin as early as October 5, and Montana, Nebraska, and Arizona are among the states opening in the first half of the month. North Carolina starts in-person early voting on October 15, Minnesota's traditional early voting period begins October 16, and Connecticut and South Carolina open October 19. Utah, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Texas follow on October 20, then New York and New Jersey on October 24. Florida counties must offer early voting from October 24 through October 31. Kentucky is the last to open, on October 29. Alabama, Mississippi, and New Hampshire do not offer early in-person voting.
To help voters follow the races, BallotWire has launched its 2026 U.S. Elections Tracker, covering every U.S. Senate, U.S. House, and gubernatorial race on the ballot. The tracker shows the candidates, incumbents, open seats, party control, and past election results for each contest.
BallotWire's Top 10 U.S. Senate Races to Watch in 2026
With early voting underway and control of the U.S. Senate at stake, BallotWire has published a rundown of the ten races most likely to decide which party holds the chamber in the next Congress.
Democrats need a net gain of four seats to win the majority, and the map has grown well beyond where it started. Traditional battlegrounds like North Carolina, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Georgia remain at the center of the fight, but recent polling has also put Republican-held seats in Texas, Iowa, Nebraska, and Alaska in play, with several of those races now within the margin of error.
The list walks through each contest: the candidates, the latest polling, and what makes the race competitive heading into November 3.
Read the Top 10 U.S. Senate Races to Watch in 2026
Supreme Court Allows DHS Citizenship Database for Voter Roll Checks
The U.S. Supreme Court ruled 6-3 on September 25 that the Trump administration can resume offering states an expanded federal database to verify registered voters' citizenship. The decision lifts a lower court ruling that had blocked the program over federal privacy concerns. The court's three liberal justices dissented.
The Department of Homeland Security's SAVE system has been used since 1986 to verify immigration status for government benefits. The Trump administration expanded it to draw on additional federal records, including Social Security Administration data, and to let states check entire voter lists at once rather than one person at a time.
The system's accuracy has drawn scrutiny, and DHS has acknowledged that its results are not always correct. In Travis County, Texas, officials investigated 97 voters flagged as possible noncitizens and found that at least 10 percent, and potentially as many as 21 percent, were U.S. citizens.
States are not required to use SAVE, and the ruling is unlikely to lead to widespread changes to voter rolls before the November election. Federal law generally prohibits systematic changes to voter registration lists within 90 days of a federal election, and that window is already in effect.
Senate GOP Voter ID Push Falls Short Again Before Midterms
Senate Republicans fell short again on September 30 in their push for a national voter ID requirement. The measure received 53 votes, seven shy of the 60 needed to advance, with every Republican in favor and every Democrat opposed.
The Stop Insider Trading Act paired a ban on congressional stock trading with a requirement that voters show photo identification in federal elections, including when voting by mail. The House passed its version in July with support from 13 Democrats.
Democrats objected on two fronts. They called the voter ID requirement a "poison pill" unrelated to stock trading, with party leaders arguing it amounted to voter suppression and would restrict mail-in voting.
Republicans have tried several times this year to pass a national voter ID requirement, including through the SAVE America Act and amendments to other legislation. Still, none of those efforts have reached the 60 Senate votes needed to advance.
Ossoff Sends $3.6 Million to Georgia Democrats' Coordinated Campaign
Democratic U.S. Senator Jon Ossoff has transferred more than $3.6 million from his campaign to the Democratic Party of Georgia's coordinated campaign over the past two years, putting part of his fundraising operation behind Democratic candidates statewide. Ossoff is seeking reelection against Republican U.S. Representative Mike Collins.
The coordinated campaign has more than 100 field staffers and 30 offices across Georgia, and more than 50 campaigns are taking part. It organizes canvassing, phone banking, and volunteer efforts, including in areas with competitive down-ballot races.
Recent polling shows the party's two top races on different footing. An InsiderAdvantage poll of 1,200 likely voters released last week has Ossoff leading Collins 50% to 42%, while the race to succeed term-limited Governor Brian Kemp is much closer, with Republican Rick Jackson at 48% and Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms at 46%.
Kemp, a Republican, made his own move this week. He declared a state of emergency on September 28 and suspended the state's motor fuel tax through October 29, citing rising gasoline and diesel prices amid the war with Iran.
South Carolina Voter Assistance Challenge Dismissed
A federal judge on September 30 dismissed a lawsuit challenging South Carolina's limits on who can help voters cast a ballot. The rules will stay in place for the November election.
The South Carolina NAACP and three voters with disabilities brought the case. They argued that state law conflicts with the federal Voting Rights Act, which lets voters who need help because of a disability or an inability to read or write choose almost anyone to assist them. The only exceptions are the voter's employer or union representative.
South Carolina law is stricter. It limits who can serve as an assistant and how many voters one person can help. The plaintiffs said that makes voting harder in nursing homes and other care facilities, where several residents may depend on the same staff member.
The judge did not decide whether the state's rules violate federal law. He ruled only that the plaintiffs had not shown they were harmed in a specific enough way to bring the case. The lawsuit can be filed again.
Wisconsin Supreme Court to Decide Whether Judges Can Extend Polling Hours
The Wisconsin Supreme Court agreed on September 28 to hear a case on whether judges can keep polling places open past the state's 8 p.m. closing time. The court declined to fast-track the case, so it will not be decided before the November 3 election.
The dispute dates to the 2024 presidential election, when long lines at two polling places led the Democratic National Committee to ask for more voting time. A judge granted the request, but a state appeals court ruled in July that state law did not give the judge authority to extend polling hours.
Wisconsin law already allows anyone in line at 8 p.m. to vote. The case could set a statewide standard for how courts respond when long lines, equipment failures, or other disruptions keep voters from reaching the polls before they close.
Data & Polling Roundup
New polling and data insights on the current electoral landscape and emerging trends.
Democrats Lead House U.S. Ballot by 12 as Trump Approval Falls
Democrats lead Republicans 51% to 39% on control of the U.S. House in a new Quinnipiac University poll, with independents backing Democrats 54% to 30%. The September 24-27 poll surveyed 1,032 registered voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.
President Trump's job approval stands at 34%, with 61% disapproving. His approval on the economy is 31%, compared with 65% who disapprove.
Democrats lead Republicans on several issues, including health care by 24 points, cost of living by 13 points, the economy by six points, and immigration by three points.
Graham and Andrews in Statistical Tie in South Carolina U.S. Senate Race
Republican U.S. Senator Darline Graham leads Democrat Dr. Annie Andrews 43.4% to 42.3% among likely voters in a new Trafalgar Group poll, putting the race within the survey's margin of error. The September 23-25 poll surveyed 1,087 likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.
Andrews leads among voters under 50, including 60% of those ages 18-29, while Graham leads among voters 50 and older with about 51%. Graham leads men 53% to 34%, while Andrews leads women 50% to 35%. Graham also leads white voters 48% to 39%, while Andrews leads Black voters 50% to 32%.
Democrats Lead All Four Michigan Statewide Races
Democrats lead all four major statewide races in a new Michigan Enjoyer poll conducted by Cygnal and Beacon Research. The September 18-21 poll surveyed 600 likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
In the governor's race, Democrat Jocelyn Benson leads Republican U.S. Representative John James 45% to 38%. Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican former U.S. Representative Mike Rogers 45% to 40% in the U.S. Senate race.
Democrats also lead the races for secretary of state and attorney general. Garlin Gilchrist leads Anthony Forlini 41% to 38%, while Eli Savit leads Doug Lloyd 39% to 37%. Democrats hold a 46% to 40% advantage on the state House generic ballot.
Undecided voters remain a factor, ranging from 11% in the governor's race to 24% in the attorney general's race. Inflation and the cost of living rank as the top issues for Michigan voters at 24%.
Crowley Leads Tiffany by 3 in Wisconsin Governor Race
Democrat David Crowley leads Republican U.S. Representative Tom Tiffany 49% to 46% among likely voters in a new Marquette Law School poll, with 5% undecided. The September 16-23 poll included 692 likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.8 percentage points.
The race has narrowed since August, when Crowley led 49% to 44%. Independents favor Crowley 44% to 18%, although 38% remain undecided.
President Trump's job approval stands at 38%, with 60% disapproving. Inflation and the cost of living remain the top issues at 45%, while 43% of voters say they are financially worse off than a year ago. Democrats also lead the state legislative generic ballot 48% to 45% among likely voters.
Brown Leads Husted by 8 in Ohio U.S. Senate Race; Acton Up 6 for Governor
Democrats lead both major statewide races in Ohio, according to a new Marist Poll. Former Democratic U.S. Senator Sherrod Brown leads Republican U.S. Senator Jon Husted 51% to 43%, while Democrat Amy Acton leads Republican Vivek Ramaswamy 50% to 44% for governor. The poll surveyed 1,298 registered voters and was conducted September 24-27, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.
Brown leads independents 58% to 33%, while Acton leads them 57% to 32%. Democrats also hold a 50% to 47% advantage on the generic congressional ballot.
President Trump's job approval stands at 42%, with 56% disapproving. Forty-one percent of voters say their congressional vote is mainly a vote against Trump, compared with 25% who say it is a vote for him.
Conley Leads Lawler by 2 in New York's 17th District
Democrat Cait Conley leads Republican U.S. Representative Mike Lawler 48% to 46% among likely voters in New York's 17th Congressional District, according to a new Emerson College Polling/PIX11 News survey. Seven percent remain undecided. The poll surveyed 400 likely voters from September 27-29 and has a credibility interval of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
Lawler is 45% favorable and 46% unfavorable, while Conley is 44% favorable and 35% unfavorable. The economy ranks as the top issue at 31%, followed by threats to democracy at 23%, immigration at 13%, and housing affordability at 12%.