By BallotWire
09/25/2026
Top Election Developments
A weekly recap of major election news: key race developments, candidate moves, and shifts that could shape upcoming contests.
2026 Midterm Elections Underway as Early Voting Begins
The 2026 midterm elections are underway, with early voting already open in several states ahead of the November 3 general election. Virginia, Minnesota, South Dakota and Idaho began voting on September 18, and Illinois followed on September 24. Most other states will open early voting in October.
To help voters follow the races, BallotWire has launched its 2026 U.S. Elections Tracker, covering every U.S. Senate, U.S. House, and gubernatorial elections on the ballot. The tracker shows the candidates, incumbents, open seats, party control, and past election margins for each contest, with filters to sort races by state, office, or election status.
Click here to follow the 2026 elections with BallotWire.
ProPublica Report on FBI Probe Rocks Maine U.S. Senate Race
A ProPublica investigation published September 22 reported that FBI anti-corruption agents were investigating Republican U.S. Senator Susan Collins and members of her campaign staff as recently as late 2024. The investigation was dropped in 2025 as the Trump administration replaced senior FBI officials and reshaped the bureau. The report comes about six weeks before Collins faces Democrat Troy Jackson in one of the country's most closely watched U.S. Senate races.
The reporting centers on Martin Kao, the former CEO of Hawaii-based military contractor Navatek, who pleaded guilty in 2022 to charges related to illegal campaign contributions benefiting Collins' 2020 reelection bid. Kao told investigators he could not secure a meeting with Collins until he agreed to donate, and alleged that a pro-Collins super PAC official promised the company Navy contracts in exchange for a large donation. Collins' office vigorously denied the allegations, calling them outlandish.
Jackson responded by accusing Collins of "corruption of the highest order" and calling for answers about contracts that Collins and her staff helped facilitate.
Maine is the only state Democrats won in the 2024 presidential election with a Republican senator up for reelection this year, putting the race at the center of the battle for control of the U.S. Senate. Recent polls have shown a close contest, with some surveys giving Jackson a narrow lead and showing Collins with a net-negative favorability rating.
Democratic Leaders Sue to Block Federal Agents From Polling Places
U.S. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, U.S. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and three Democratic campaign committees sued the Trump administration on September 23 to prevent armed federal agents from being deployed to polling places during the November midterm elections. The lawsuit argues that such deployments would violate federal laws restricting armed officers at election sites and prohibiting voter intimidation.
The lawsuit follows statements from Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin and FBI Director Kash Patel that federal agents could go to polling places under certain circumstances, including responding to threats, serving warrants, or investigating violations of law. The administration has said it has no plans to deploy agents to polling places but has not ruled out their presence in those circumstances.
The case follows similar lawsuits filed this month by civil rights groups seeking to keep armed federal agents away from polling locations.
Missouri Redistricting Fight Returns to U.S. Supreme Court
Missouri's congressional redistricting fight returned to the U.S. Supreme Court on September 22 as courts continue to decide which map the state should use for the November election.
Missouri Republicans redrew the state's congressional map in 2025 after President Trump urged Republican-led states to redraw districts ahead of the midterms. The new map targets Democratic U.S. Representative Emanuel Cleaver's Kansas City-based 5th District and could give Republicans seven of Missouri's eight U.S. House seats, up from six.
The current dispute centers on whether Missouri can use the new map before voters decide whether to approve it. On September 3, the Missouri Supreme Court ruled that opponents had successfully placed the map before voters in a November referendum, preventing it from taking effect unless voters approve it. The ruling left the state's 2022 map in place. A federal judge later ordered Missouri to use the 2025 map, but the U.S. Supreme Court temporarily blocked that order on September 10.
The Eighth Circuit Court of Appeals ruled September 21 that Missouri should use the 2025 map, saying it was too late to change districts after candidates had filed and 1.2 million voters had cast ballots under the new lines in the August primary. The group behind the referendum then asked the U.S. Supreme Court to block that ruling. The appeals court decision is on hold until September 28, leaving the 2022 map in place for now.
Voters will decide the future of the 2025 map through Proposition A on November 3. A yes vote approves the new map, while a no vote keeps the 2022 map. The immediate court fight is over which map will be used for this November's congressional elections.
Crypto Super PAC Commits $30 Million Against Brown in Ohio
Fairshake, a cryptocurrency industry-backed super PAC, announced September 21 that it will spend at least $30 million to oppose Democrat Sherrod Brown in Ohio's U.S. Senate special election. It is the group's largest investment against a single candidate this cycle. Fairshake's network spent roughly $40 million against Brown in 2024, when he lost reelection to Republican Bernie Moreno.
The announcement came days after the U.S. Senate failed to advance the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, a priority for the cryptocurrency industry. Brown, former chairman of the U.S. Senate Banking Committee, has called for stronger restrictions on using digital assets to finance terrorism and evade sanctions.
Fairshake-affiliated groups are already running ads supporting Republican U.S. Senator Jon Husted and opposing Brown. Husted was appointed to the U.S. Senate in 2025 after JD Vance resigned to become vice president. Brown and Husted are now competing in the November 3 special election to serve the remainder of Vance's term, which runs through 2028.
Golden Endorses Republican Lawler in Key New York U.S. House Race
Retiring Democratic U.S. Representative Jared Golden of Maine endorsed Republican U.S. Representative Mike Lawler for reelection in New York's 17th Congressional District on September 21. Golden cited their work together on issues including Maine's lobster industry, federal workers' bargaining rights and Affordable Care Act tax credits.
The endorsement drew criticism from U.S. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and other Democrats backing Lawler's Democratic opponent, Cait Conley. The district is expected to be closely contested after Kamala Harris carried it by less than one percentage point in 2024 while Lawler won reelection by six points.
South Dakota Republican Secretary of State Backs Democratic Successor
Republican South Dakota Secretary of State Monae Johnson endorsed Democrat Terrence Davis in the race to succeed her, passing over Republican nominee and State Representative Heather Baxter.
Johnson, who lost the Republican nomination to Baxter in June, said voters should consider the experience needed to oversee elections and the office's other responsibilities. She cited Davis' law enforcement background, education, and focus on transparency and voting rights.
Davis, a former state trooper, would be the first Democrat in decades to serve as South Dakota secretary of state if he wins on November 3.
Data & Polling Roundup
New polling and data insights on the current electoral landscape and emerging trends.
Talarico Leads Paxton by 6 in Texas U.S. Senate Race; Hinojosa Edges Abbott
Democrats lead both major statewide races in Texas, according to a new Marist Poll.
Democratic State Representative James Talarico leads Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton 50% to 44% in the U.S. Senate race, while Democratic State Representative Gina Hinojosa leads Republican Governor Greg Abbott 49% to 46%. The September 17-20 poll surveyed 1,139 registered voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
Despite those numbers, 52% of voters expect Paxton to win the U.S. Senate race, and 68% expect Abbott to win reelection. Democrats also lead the statewide generic congressional ballot 49% to 46%.
President Trump's job approval stands at 43%, with 55% disapproving. Thirty-nine percent of voters say their congressional vote is mostly against Trump, compared with 25% who say it is mostly for him.
Janoo Leads Scott by 6 in Vermont Governor Race
Democrat Amanda Janoo leads Republican Governor Phil Scott 49% to 43% among likely voters in a new University of New Hampshire poll, with 6% undecided. The September 17-21 survey included 835 likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
Scott's job approval stands at 47%, with 47% disapproving. Janoo is viewed favorably by 44% of likely voters and unfavorably by 22%, compared with 41% favorable and 36% unfavorable for Scott.
Scott, who has served as governor since 2017, is seeking a sixth two-year term against Janoo, who won the Democratic nomination in August.
Becerra Leads Hilton by 25 Points in California Governor Race
Democrat Xavier Becerra leads Republican Steve Hilton 58% to 33% among likely voters in a new UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll. The September 15-20 survey included 4,512 likely voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. Becerra's lead has grown since May, when he led Hilton 55% to 37%.
The cost of living ranked as the top issue voters want the next governor to address. Hilton has blamed Democratic policies for California's high housing and energy costs, while Becerra has called for rent stabilization and freezes on utility and home insurance costs.
Becerra, a former U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services and California attorney general, and Hilton, a former Fox News host endorsed by President Trump, are running to succeed term-limited Governor Gavin Newsom.
Turek Leads Hinson by 8 in Iowa U.S. Senate Race; Sand Up 12 for Governor
Democrats lead both major statewide races in Iowa, according to a new Marist Poll.
Democratic State Representative Josh Turek leads Republican U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson 50% to 42% in the U.S. Senate race, while Democratic State Auditor Rob Sand leads Republican businessman Zach Lahn 54% to 42% for governor. The September 17-20 poll surveyed 1,050 registered voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
Despite Turek's eight-point lead, 59% of voters expect Hinson to win the U.S. Senate race, compared with 37% who expect Turek to win. In the governor's race, 56% expect Sand to win. Democrats also lead the statewide generic congressional ballot 50% to 45%.
President Trump's job approval stands at 41%, with 58% disapproving. Forty-three percent of voters say their congressional vote is mostly against Trump, compared with 22% who say it is mostly for him. The poll also found 46% of Iowans say their family finances have worsened over the past year, while 15% say they have improved.
Shapiro Leads Garrity by 20 Points in Pennsylvania
Democratic Governor Josh Shapiro leads Republican State Treasurer Stacy Garrity 58% to 38% among likely Pennsylvania voters in a New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena poll, widening his lead from 16 points in August.
The poll also found President Trump's job approval at 34%, with 63% disapproving, while Democrats lead Republicans 51% to 42% on the congressional ballot. Democratic U.S. Senator John Fetterman continues to draw unusual support across party lines, with Republicans viewing him more favorably than Democrats.
Maryland Redistricting Amendment Trails With Nearly a Third of Voters Undecided
A new poll finds 41% of likely Maryland voters oppose the state's congressional redistricting amendment, while 28% support it and 31% are undecided. The September 10-13 survey of 600 likely voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points and was commissioned by Protect Maryland Votes, a group opposing the amendment.
Republicans oppose the measure 61% to 18%, while Democrats are more divided, with 35% supporting it and 32% opposed. The poll also found 57% of voters oppose gerrymandering Maryland's congressional districts.
The Maryland Supreme Court reinstated the amendment on the November ballot earlier this month. If approved, it would clarify that the state constitution's redistricting standards apply only to legislative districts, not congressional districts, potentially allowing the congressional map to be redrawn. Democrats currently hold seven of Maryland's eight U.S. House seats.
Raman Leads Bass by 11 Points in Los Angeles Mayor Race
Los Angeles City Councilmember Nithya Raman leads Mayor Karen Bass 39% to 28% ahead of the November 3 runoff, according to a new UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll. The September 15-20 survey included 2,150 likely voters and has a margin of error of about 3 percentage points.
The poll shows a shift from the June primary, when Bass finished first with 34% to Raman's 29%. Bass is viewed favorably by 28% of likely voters and unfavorably by 63%, while Raman's ratings stand at 40% favorable and 39% unfavorable.
One-third of likely voters remain undecided, including 63% of voters who supported third-place finisher Spencer Pratt in the primary. Raman, a member of the Democratic Socialists of America, would become the next mayor of Los Angeles if she wins the November runoff.