By BallotWire
2024
The 2024 U.S. presidential election, held on November 5, 2024, marked a historic and fiercely contested battle that culminated in former President Donald Trump's return to the White House. Trump defeated Vice President Kamala Harris, who made history as the first Black woman to lead a major-party ticket after incumbent President Joe Biden exited the race. The election proved to be a turning point in terms of electoral results and voter engagement, campaign strategies, and the pressing issues that shaped the American political landscape.
A Closer Look at the Election Results
The results of the 2024 election were nothing short of surprising, underscoring the pivotal role of key states in determining the outcome. Donald Trump secured 312 electoral votes, while Kamala Harris garnered 226, surpassing the 270 votes needed for victory. This marked Trump as the 47th president of the United States, with his inauguration set for January 20, 2025. The results mirrored some aspects of the 2016 elections, as Trump flipped crucial states that previously voted for Biden in 2020.
States such as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin switched allegiance, showcasing a dramatic and profound shift in the electorate. High voter turnout played a significant role in these results, underscoring the seismic changes that were taking place.
Breakdown of Battleground States
Arizona (11 electoral votes): Trump won Arizona decisively, securing approximately 52% of the vote compared to Harris's 47%, a significant swing from Biden's narrow victory in 2020. Increased support from Republicans in Maricopa County and outreach to Latino voters propelled Trump's success in this state.
Georgia (16 electoral votes): Trump narrowly reclaimed Georgia, defeating Harris by about 2.2 percentage points (50.7% to 48.5%). Voter turnout surged in rural areas, while shifts among suburban Atlanta voters, particularly among Black and Hispanic men, contributed to Republican gains.
Michigan (15 electoral votes): Trump regained Michigan by roughly 1.4 points (49.7% to 48.3%). Rural turnout and diminished margins in metropolitan Detroit areas marked the shift in favor of Trump, illustrating how demographic appeals resonated in this state.
Nevada (6 electoral votes): Trump surprised many by flipping Nevada, capturing about 50.6% of the vote. The unexpected outcomes in key states like Nevada added to the unpredictability of the election, keeping the reader engaged. A struggling tourism sector due to inflation and the pandemic facilitated Trump's economic message, appealing particularly to working-class Latino and white voters.
Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes): Trump secured about 50.4% of the votes against Harris's 48.7%. Strong performance in rural areas and improved turnout among working-class voters in regions like Scranton were decisive.
Wisconsin (10 electoral votes): In one of the closest races, Trump edged out Harris by less than one percentage point (49.7% to 48.8%). The margin translated to around 29,000 votes, reflecting a narrow but crucial triumph driven by strong support in working-class areas.
While Harris maintained some key states, such as New Hampshire, Minnesota, Virginia, and Colorado, they could not counterbalance Trump's gains in battleground states. The popular vote margin, with Trump receiving about 49.8% of the total votes and Harris capturing approximately 48.3%, displayed a narrow difference of only 1.5 percentage points, underscoring the competitiveness of the election.
Candidates and Campaign Strategies
Donald Trump – A Populist Resurrection
Donald Trump's candidacy was fueled by a firm base and a clear strategy aimed at a return to the presidency. Despite facing legal challenges, Trump's campaign resonated with many disillusioned voters with the Biden administration, focusing on economic grievances, border security, and law-and-order messaging. Partnering with Ohio Senator JD Vance, Trump crafted a ticket highlighting his populist brand alongside a younger voice from the Midwest.
Trump's campaign relied heavily on rallying his base, a strategy that proved to be remarkably effective. He utilized significant public events to bolster enthusiasm, presenting himself as a political outsider under siege by the establishment, an image that resonated with supporters. Moreover, his efforts to broaden appeal among minority voters paid off, as exit polls indicated significant gains with Latino men and young Black men compared to 2020.
Kamala Harris – A Historic Campaign
Vice President Kamala Harris entered the race under unique circumstances after Joe Biden's withdrawal. Her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, was chosen to enhance the ticket's appeal and signal commitment to critical issues such as economic opportunity and reproductive rights. Harris aimed to build upon the coalition that helped guide Biden to victory in 2020, targeting suburban moderates, women, and minority groups.
Her campaign was characterized by a commitment to continuity and progress, emphasizing achievements from the Biden-Harris administration while framing the election as a critical choice about values. Issues such as abortion rights, voting rights, and preserving democratic norms were central to Harris's messaging, as she presented herself as a steady and experienced leader. However, despite significant spending efforts—about $1.51 billion compared to the GOP's $1.03 billion—Harris struggled to energize specific base segments, which affected her overall turnout among particular demographics.
Voter Turnout: A Record Participation Rate
The 2024 election witnessed remarkable voter turnout, with over 156 million Americans casting ballots, translating to approximately 63.9% of eligible voters. While this figure was slightly below the historic turnout of 66.6% in 2020, it marked one of the highest participation rates in modern American history.
Contrary to the belief that higher turnout favors Democrats, the 2024 election proved different. Republican participation surged, contradicting expectations regarding voter engagement benefiting one party over another. Trump garnered roughly 3 million more votes than in the previous election, while Harris fell short, receiving around 6.3 million fewer votes than Biden in 2020.
Demographic trends reflected changes in voting behavior. Young voters, typically leaning Democratic, showed lower participation rates—only about 42% of those aged 18-29 voted in 2024 compared to over 50% in 2020. The electorate skewed older this cycle, further complicating Harris's strategy.
Conversely, Trump's turnout among older voters remained robust, mirroring their alignment with his policies. Furthermore, Trump's appeal among various minority groups, notably Latino and Black voters, proved significant in key states like Florida, Arizona, and Nevada, adding dimensions to his coalition.
Ultimately, while both campaigns achieved remarkable turnout, Trump's ability to leverage momentum in key states outpaced Democratic gains, showcasing a competitive landscape where high turnout no longer favored one party inherently. This trend of robust voter engagement suggests a redefined electoral dynamic where both parties must keenly strategize to energize their bases while persuading swing voters.
Conclusion: The Implications of 2024
The 2024 U.S. presidential election determined immediate leadership and signaled enduring trends in American politics. Trump's victory marks significant policy shifts and reflects a nation polarized by various issues, including economic concerns, immigration policy, and personal rights.
As the country moves forward, the lessons of the 2024 election will undoubtedly resonate, influencing the strategic considerations for both Republicans and Democrats. Significant issues that dominated the campaign will remain focal points of political discourse while each party must contend with the implications of a deeply engaged electorate split on key values.
With each election more consequential than the last, the political landscape will continue to evolve, challenging both parties to address voters' nuanced preferences. The stakes have never been higher as America embarks on a new chapter with profound implications for its governance and democratic principles. The road ahead promises challenges and opportunities as the lessons learned from this closely fought election shape the future of American politics.