Photo credit: Roy Cooper for Senate
By BallotWire
10/08/2026
The Wire: A new East Carolina University poll finds Democrat Roy Cooper leading Republican Michael Whatley 50% to 43% in North Carolina’s open U.S. Senate race, a stable seven-point edge even as the pool of undecided voters collapses.
Why it counts: The seat, open with Sen. Thom Tillis retiring, is one of Democrats’ best pickup chances, and it sits in a state Trump carried in 2024. A durable Cooper lead that holds as voters make up their minds is encouraging for a party with a narrow path to a Senate majority.
The margin: Cooper took 50% to Whatley’s 43%, with 6% undecided and 2% backing a minor-party or write-in candidate. In a forced-choice question, Cooper led 53% to 46%. The margin is unchanged from last month, but the undecided share has fallen sharply from 14% to 6%. The poll surveyed 810 likely voters from Sept. 30 to Oct. 3, with a credibility interval of plus or minus 4 points.
The fine print: Several currents favor Cooper. He leads independents by 16 points, 52% to 36%, and is the only candidate with net-positive favorability, at 48% favorable to 43% unfavorable, while Whatley sits at 31% to 43%. The economy and cost of living dominate, named the top issue by 55% of voters, and among them Cooper’s lead widens to 60% to 31%. Demographically, Cooper leads Black voters 82% to 11%, women 54% to 37%, and college graduates 58% to 35%, while Whatley leads white voters 53% to 39%, men 49% to 44%, voters without a degree 48% to 44%, and those 65 and older 51% to 45%.
On the record: ECU survey director Peter Francia tied the race to its central issue, noting that the economy is paramount and that “Cooper is winning these voters decisively.”
The counter: Whatley retains clear paths to close the gap. He leads among the voters who will likely make up the largest shares of the electorate, including seniors, white voters, and those without a four-year degree, in a state Trump won. Francia framed the final stretch around whether Whatley can cut into Cooper’s advantage with economy-focused voters, calling that the key to whether the race tightens.
The backdrop: Cooper is a popular two-term former governor whose successor, Gov. Josh Stein, posts net-positive marks of 43% to 29% in the same poll. Whatley is a former chair of both the Republican National Committee and the state GOP, running with Trump’s backing. The president’s standing in North Carolina is underwater, with 40% approval and 57% disapproval, in a state he carried by about three points in 2024.
Looking ahead: Cooper enters the final month ahead and with momentum as undecideds break, but North Carolina’s long history of photo-finish statewide races keeps Whatley within range. The question through Election Day is whether he can convert the state’s Republican lean and his edge with key groups into a comeback.