Photo credit: Roy Cooper for Senate
By BallotWire
10/15/2026
The Wire: Democrat Roy Cooper raised more than $19.5 million in the third quarter of his North Carolina Senate race against Republican Michael Whatley. This haul landed just as national Republicans began pulling resources out of the state.
Why it counts: The open seat, created by Sen. Thom Tillis’s retirement, is one of Democrats’ best pickup chances, and a GOP advertising retreat in a state Trump carried signals Republicans may be conceding ground. Combined with Cooper’s steady polling lead, it suggests momentum is shifting toward the Democrat in the final stretch.
The margin: More than 95% of Cooper’s donations were $100 or less, with contributions from all 100 North Carolina counties, extending a money advantage he has held all cycle. Whatley has trailed badly in head-to-head fundraising throughout the race, and recent public polls have shown Cooper leading by as much as 14 points.
The fine print: The Republican pullback is the bigger story. The Senate Leadership Fund canceled its October advertising after pouring roughly $30 million into the race, including $17 million in September, and is redirecting the money to more competitive contests. Whatley’s own campaign went dark on television, with its last ad airing the week of Oct. 7 and no reservations booked through Election Day. Even the Democratic-aligned WinSenate trimmed a small share of its North Carolina buys while keeping a large reservation in place, a sign Cooper is seen as safely ahead.
The counter: Republicans framed the ad pullback as strategy, not surrender. The Senate Leadership Fund said the move reflects the most efficient use of its resources and expressed confidence it can still define Cooper, whom it brands a career politician, before November. Cooper’s own campaign, wary of complacency, insists North Carolina remains competitive in a Republican-leaning state.
The backdrop: Trump handpicked Whatley, a former chair of both the Republican National Committee and the state GOP and a former energy lobbyist, after the president pushed Tillis out of the race. Cooper, a popular two-term former governor and longtime fixture in state politics, has led in money and polling from the start. The Senate Leadership Fund had pledged at least $71 million for the race in the spring before scaling back.
Looking ahead: With Republican money leaving and Cooper flush heading into the Nov. 3 election, the central question is whether the retreat marks the seat effectively tilting to Democrats or whether national Republicans re-engage in the closing days. For now, Cooper enters the homestretch as the clear favorite.