Photo credit: Gina Hinojosa for Governor
By BallotWire
11/04/2026
The Wire: Democrat Gina Hinojosa defeated three-term Republican Gov. Greg Abbott 52.8% to 45.7% on Tuesday in a 7.1-point upset, making her Texas’ first Latina governor and its first Democratic governor since Ann Richards lost reelection in 1994.
Why it counts: The win is among the cycle's most stunning results. Texas had not elected a Democratic governor in more than three decades, and Abbott had held the office since 2015. Hinojosa’s victory, part of a national wave that flipped five governorships, ends a generation of Republican dominance at the top of Texas government.
The margin: Hinojosa took 52.8% to Abbott’s 45.7%, with nearly all votes counted. The result represented a swing of roughly 21 points from President Trump’s nearly 14-point win in Texas two years ago, one of the largest shifts anywhere on the map.
The fine print: Hinojosa, a Democratic state representative from Austin, ran against both Abbott and the outside money backing him, including a roughly $224 million effort by Elon Musk to boost Texas Republicans that fell short. Her win came alongside Democrat James Talarico’s Senate victory, a double breakthrough in what had been reliably Republican territory.
On the record: Hinojosa framed the race as a referendum on affordability and the cost of living, arguing Texans were ready for new leadership after more than a decade under Abbott.
The counter: Abbott ran on his long tenure, border enforcement and the state’s economy, and his allies spent heavily to defend the office. Republicans did not expect Texas to be competitive at the gubernatorial level and were caught by the scale of Democratic turnout.
The backdrop: Democrats have long predicted Texas would eventually become competitive as its population grew and diversified, but the breakthrough hadn't arrived at the statewide level. Tuesday delivered it, and the result is already fueling Democratic hopes of contesting Texas in the 2028 presidential race.