El-Sayed Leads Rogers by 1 in Michigan U.S. Senate Race

The Wire: A new YouGov poll finds Michigan’s marquee races essentially tied, with Democrat Abdul El-Sayed edging Republican Mike Rogers 49% to 48% for the open Senate seat and Democrat Jocelyn Benson leading John James 48% to 45% for governor.

Why it counts: Michigan is central to both the fight for Senate control and a wide-open race to succeed term-limited Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. The near-deadlock, in a state President Trump carried by 1.4 points in 2024, confirms both contests as toss-ups with a month to go. Trump’s job approval sits underwater at 43% to 56%.

The margin: In the Senate race, El-Sayed took 49% to Rogers’s 48%, with just 1% for another candidate and 2% undecided. In the governor’s race, Benson led 48% to 45%, with 6% still undecided. The poll surveyed 3,949 likely voters from Sept. 22 to Oct. 4 and has a 2.5-point margin of error.

The fine print: The two sides are drawn along familiar lines. El-Sayed leads voters under 45, winning 62% of those 18-29, as well as Black voters (84% to 11%) and college graduates. Rogers leads voters 65 and older and white voters, 53% to 44%, and holds a wide edge with those without a degree. The governor’s race splits almost the same way. The electorate is also locked in: 96% of El-Sayed’s backers and 99% of Rogers’s say they've made up their minds, and the vote tracks 2024 presidential preference almost perfectly.

The backdrop: El-Sayed, a former Wayne County health director aligned with the party’s progressive wing, narrowly won an August primary over Rep. Haley Stevens. Rogers, a former congressman, is on his second straight Senate bid after losing to Elissa Slotkin by roughly a third of a point in 2024. In the governor’s race, Benson, the secretary of state, faces James, a congressman and two-time statewide candidate, for a seat Democrats have held since 2019.

Looking ahead: Both races are expected to rank among the most expensive in the country, and the poll suggests persuadable voters are scarce, putting a premium on turnout. Democrats view the Senate seat as close to a must-win for any path to the majority, while the governorship is one of the cycle’s top battlegrounds. Election Day is Nov. 3.