Photo credit: Byron Donalds for Governor
By BallotWire
10/21/2026
The Wire: Republicans remain ahead in Florida’s U.S. Senate and governor’s races, but a new round of polling offers sharply different assessments of their advantage. A University of North Florida survey shows both contests tightening, with Republican Byron Donalds leading the governor’s race by just two points and U.S. Senator Ashley Moody ahead by four. Other surveys give Republicans leads approaching or exceeding double digits, leaving uncertainty about whether Florida is becoming competitive or following its recent Republican voting patterns.
Why it counts: Florida has shifted decisively toward Republicans over the past decade, moving from one of the country’s most competitive presidential battlegrounds to a state Donald Trump carried by 13 points in 2024. Democrats have struggled to win statewide, and Republicans now hold substantial advantages in voter registration and control of state government. The University of North Florida findings suggest that dissatisfaction with the Trump administration and economic conditions is narrowing those advantages, although the broader polling picture still favors Republicans.
The margin: The University of North Florida poll found Donalds leading Democrat David Jolly 49% to 47% for governor and Moody ahead of Democrat Angie Nixon 49% to 45% for Senate, including undecided voters’ preferences. Both contests have tightened since July, when Donalds led by five points and Moody by eight.
Other polls show a considerably different picture. A co/efficient survey gives Donalds a 49% to 40% advantage over Jolly and Moody a 48% to 40% lead over Nixon. A separate Stetson University survey conducted this month places both Republicans ahead by 11 points.
The University of North Florida surveyed 1,471 likely voters October 12–19, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.81 percentage points. Co/efficient surveyed 1,014 likely voters October 18–20.
The fine print: Independent voters are a significant source of Democratic strength in the University of North Florida survey. Jolly leads among independents by 16 points, while Nixon holds a 15-point advantage. Those margins suggest Democrats are making inroads beyond their traditional base, although they still face the challenge of overcoming Florida’s Republican registration advantage.
The poll also examined the potential impact of attacks against the Senate candidates.
Twenty-five percent of voters said Republican messaging about Nixon’s ties to the Democratic Socialists of America made them less likely to support her. Meanwhile, 30%
said Democratic messaging about the Hope Florida grand jury investigation made them less likely to support Moody. Among independents, the Hope Florida issue had a greater reported impact: 38% said it made them less likely to support Moody, compared with 25% who reacted negatively to the messaging about Nixon.
The counter: Republicans enter the final stretch with advantages that extend well beyond the polling. Their voter-registration lead exceeds 1.2 million, they control both chambers of the state legislature by large margins, and recent statewide elections have demonstrated their ability to consolidate support across suburban and traditionally competitive counties.
The co/efficient and Stetson surveys suggest those advantages remain largely intact. Even the University of North Florida poll shows both Republicans leading, and the close margins fall within the survey’s margin of error. Democrats would need not only strong support from independents but also sufficient turnout among their own voters to overcome the Republican electorate that has emerged in recent cycles.
The backdrop: Florida’s Senate race is a special election for the seat Moody was appointed to after Marco Rubio became secretary of state. Nixon, a Democratic state representative from Jacksonville, is challenging Moody for a full term.
The governor’s race is open because Republican Governor Ron DeSantis is term-limited. Donalds, a Trump-endorsed congressman, faces Jolly, a former Republican congressman who later joined the Democratic Party. Their contest comes as Florida voters continue to confront concerns about housing costs, insurance premiums, and affordability, issues that have become central to statewide campaigns.
Looking ahead: With Election Day approaching on November 3, the conflicting surveys leave two plausible outcomes: Republicans could maintain the comfortable statewide margins they have established in recent elections, or Democrats could narrow those margins considerably without necessarily winning.
The University of North Florida poll suggests Florida’s political environment may be more competitive than its recent election results indicate. But the wider Republican leads in other surveys make it difficult to conclude that either race has become a toss-up. The remaining question is whether Democrats’ support among independents can translate into enough votes to challenge a Republican Party that has steadily expanded its statewide advantage.