McMorrow drops out of Michigan U.S. Senate race, narrowing field to two

The Wire: Michigan state Sen. Mallory McMorrow suspended her U.S. Senate campaign Sunday, collapsing a crowded Democratic primary into a two-way choice between Rep. Haley Stevens and Abdul El-Sayed one month before the Aug. 4 vote.

Why it counts: This is the only open Democratic-held Senate seat this cycle in a state Donald Trump carried in 2024, and handicappers rate the general a toss-up. With Democrats needing a net gain of four seats, holding Michigan is close to a must for any path to the majority.

The margin: McMorrow had slipped to the back of the pack. One June poll put El-Sayed at 22% and Stevens at 20%, with McMorrow trailing at 9% and nearly half of voters undecided.

The fine print: A person with direct knowledge pointed to the recent surge of outside spending as the decisive factor, with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee pouring millions into ads for Stevens and leaving both McMorrow and El-Sayed unable to keep pace. McMorrow's attempt to carve a lane between the two never held.

On the record: "I may be suspending this campaign, but I am not leaving the fight," McMorrow said in a video posted to X.

The counter: McMorrow endorsed neither rival, saying only that she would work to elect Democrats up and down the ticket and that the eventual nominee would have her full support. The two who remain wasted no time drawing the contrast: Stevens cast herself as the strongest Democrat to beat Republican Mike Rogers, while El-Sayed pitched her backers directly, arguing, "We cannot allow the establishment to decide our nominee for us."

The backdrop: McMorrow entered as a rising national figure, built on a viral 2022 state Senate floor speech and a 2024 convention speaking slot, and drew endorsements from four sitting senators, including Elizabeth Warren and Chris Murphy. But the primary hardened along ideological and Israel-related lines, with Stevens backed by Chuck Schumer and pro-Israel groups and El-Sayed by Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, squeezing out the middle she was trying to occupy.

Looking ahead: The Aug. 4 primary now pits Stevens against El-Sayed, though McMorrow's name stays on the ballot since it was already printed. The winner faces Rogers, the Trump-endorsed former congressman who lost to Elissa Slotkin by fewer than 30,000 votes in 2024, in what looks like one of November's tightest Senate contests.