Peltola leads Sullivan in Alaska U.S. Senate primary as both advance to November

The Wire: Former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola led Alaska's all-party Senate primary Tuesday, finishing ahead of two-term Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan as both advanced to a November general election that could help decide Senate control.

Why it counts: Peltola outran the incumbent by more than five points in a state President Trump carried by 13, turning what should be safe Republican turf into a genuine toss-up and one of the Democrats' most promising long-shot pickup chances.

The margin: Peltola took 48.1% to Sullivan's 42.7%. Under Alaska's top-four system, the four highest finishers advance regardless of party, so both easily move on. A retired Petersburg teacher named Daniel J. Sullivan, a Republican unrelated to the senator, finished third with 2.4% and is on track to advance. The fourth and final spot is too close to call, with Democrat David Leslie leading Republican Gerald Heikes by about two dozen votes.

The fine print: The two-Sullivans result is the wrinkle Republicans spent months worrying about. Having a second Dan Sullivan on the November ballot, also a Republican, could confuse voters or siphon support from the incumbent in a race expected to be decided at the margins.

On the record: Peltola has cast the race as a fight over affordability, vowing to "shake up the establishment" and pledging to put Alaska first.

The counter: Sullivan, a Marine veteran and Trump ally who has held the seat since 2015, is seeking a third term on a record of backing the military and expanding resource development. His allies argue voters have already rendered a verdict on his opponent. "Alaskans made their choice about Mary Peltola two years ago when they fired her," one Republican said, referring to her 2024 defeat.

The backdrop: Peltola made history in 2022 as the first Alaska Native elected to Congress, winning a special election over a field that included former Gov. Sarah Palin before narrowly losing her seat to Republican Nick Begich in 2024. She has consistently run ahead of the typical Alaska Democrat, and entered the Senate race as one of her party's top recruits, backed by a strong fundraising quarter.

Looking ahead: The November general will be decided by ranked-choice voting, the same system that helped Peltola win in 2022, giving her a mechanism to consolidate support if the race stays close. With more than $30 million already spent and forecasters rating the contest a toss-up, Alaska is set to draw outsized national attention through Election Day.