Pritzker up 20 over Bailey as Democrats lead across Illinois

The Wire: A new Chicago News Weekly poll by Public Policy Polling shows Gov. JB Pritzker leading Republican Darren Bailey by 20 points, with Democrats ahead in all five statewide races surveyed, underscoring the party’s grip on deep-blue Illinois heading into November.

Why it counts: Illinois hasn't elected a Republican statewide since 2014, and the poll suggests that streak is safe. Democrats appear positioned to sweep the top of the ticket, including the open U.S. Senate seat, while President Trump sits deeply underwater in the state at 33% approval to 61% disapproval.

The margin: Pritzker took 54% to Bailey’s 34%, with independent Collin Corbett at 6% and 6% undecided. Democrats led the rest of the ballot: Juliana Stratton over Don Tracy 49% to 36% for Senate, Attorney General Kwame Raoul over Bob Fioretti 52% to 38%, Secretary of State Alexi Giannoulias over Diane Harris 55% to 37%, and Margaret Croke over Bryan Drew 48% to 37% for comptroller. The poll surveyed 569 voters from Sept. 30 to Oct. 1.

The fine print: The undecided share varied widely, from just 6% in the governor’s race to 15% in both the Senate and comptroller contests, leaving the down-ballot margins softer than the top lines suggest. An enthusiasm gap also favored Democrats: among voters who said they were very excited to vote, Pritzker led by 24 points—the sample identified as 42% Democratic, 27% Republican, and 30% independent.

The backdrop: Pritzker, seeking a third term, is in a rematch with Bailey, the state senator he beat by roughly 12 points in 2022, as the governor also raises his national profile ahead of a potential 2028 bid. The Senate race is open because longtime Sen. Dick Durbin is retiring, and Lt. Gov. Stratton emerged as the Democratic nominee to replace him in a contest Democrats are heavily favored to hold.

Looking ahead: With Democrats leading every race tested, the open questions are turnout and whether the sizable blocs of undecided voters down the ballot break along the same lines as the governor’s race. Election Day is Nov. 3.