South Carolina Democratic U.S. Senate nominee Annie Andrews speaks to attendees at the Spratt Issues Conference, hosted by the South Carolina Democratic Party, Saturday, Aug. 22, 2026, in Florence, S.C. (AP Photo/Meg Kinnard)
By BallotWire
09/29/2026
The Wire: Republican U.S. Senator Darline Graham and Democrat Dr. Annie Andrews are separated by just one point in a new Trafalgar Group poll, showing a close race in a state that hasn't elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1998.
Why it counts: South Carolina has been a reliably Republican state in federal elections, with President Trump carrying it by 18 points in 2024. The close Senate race could give Democrats another opportunity to gain a Republican-held seat as they try to win control of the chamber.
The margin: Graham leads Andrews 43.4% to 42.3%, within the poll’s 2.9-point margin of error. Another 8.5% are undecided and 5.9% support another candidate. The poll surveyed 1,087 likely voters from September 23-25.
The fine print: Andrews leads every age group under 50, including voters ages 18-29 by 59.7%. Graham takes about 51% among voters 50 and older. Graham leads men 53.2% to 33.5%, while Andrews leads women 49.6% to 35.3%. Graham also leads white voters 48.2% to 39%, while Andrews leads Black voters 50.1% to 31.5%.
The counter: Trafalgar is a Republican-aligned polling firm, but other recent polls have also shown a close race. An InsiderAdvantage poll in early September showed Graham ahead by two points, while an August poll sponsored by Andrews’ campaign found the race tied.
The backdrop: Graham was appointed in July after her brother, U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham, died, and later won the Republican nomination. Andrews, a Charleston pediatrician, is the Democratic nominee. Both candidates are seeking their first elected statewide office, and the winner would become the first woman to represent South Carolina in the U.S. Senate.
Looking ahead: Graham and Andrews are scheduled to debate on SCETV on October 11 ahead of the November 3 election.