By BallotWire
10/22/2026
The Wire: President Donald Trump’s approval rating has fallen to some of the lowest levels of his political career, while Democrats have opened an 11-point lead on the generic congressional ballot. A series of national surveys released this week points to a deteriorating political environment for Republicans, with dissatisfaction over the economy and cost of living threatening to shape the November 3 midterms.
Why it counts: The numbers suggest a substantial Democratic victory, particularly in the U.S. House. The New York Times/Siena poll shows Democrats with one of their largest generic-ballot advantages in years, while Trump’s approval is approaching levels associated with some of the most difficult midterm elections for incumbent presidents. The combination recalls 2006, when opposition to President George W. Bush helped Democrats capture both chambers of Congress. But translating a national advantage into seats remains a separate challenge, especially in a House map where Democratic votes are heavily concentrated in urban districts.
The margin: The New York Times/Siena poll found Democrats leading Republicans 52% to 41% among likely voters, with Trump’s job approval at 36% and disapproval at 59%. More than two-thirds of independents disapprove of his performance, an especially troubling figure for Republicans defending competitive districts. The survey included 3,494 voters October 12–19, with a margin of error of plus or minus 1.9 percentage points.
The fine print: Trump’s greatest weakness remains the economy, particularly the everyday expenses that helped return him to the White House in 2024. Just 29% approve of his handling of the cost of living, compared with 69% who disapprove. His rating on gas prices is even worse, at 24% approval and 73% disapproval. Democrats also lead Republicans on handling the broader economy, health care, corruption, foreign wars, and artificial intelligence. The findings suggest Republican difficulties extend beyond dissatisfaction with Trump’s personal conduct to voters’ assessments of his administration’s policies.
The counter: An 11-point national lead would represent a commanding Democratic advantage, but congressional elections are decided district by district. Republican-drawn maps in several states, the geographic concentration of Democratic voters and differences in turnout could limit how many seats Democrats gain. Republicans are also counting on their turnout operation and the possibility that polling overstates Democratic support. The more consequential question is whether the national shift is reaching Republican-held districts that were considered relatively secure earlier in the cycle.
The backdrop: The Times/Siena findings are consistent with several other national surveys released this week. CNN/SSRS placed Trump’s approval at 32%, Washington Post/ABC/Ipsos at 33% and NBC News at 34%, each a new low in its respective series. A separate CNBC All-America Economic Survey found Trump’s economic approval at 34%, with 65% disapproving, his weakest reading in that survey across both presidential terms. Taken together, the polls suggest the president’s declining standing isn't an isolated result but part of a broader shift in public opinion.
Looking ahead: With less than two weeks until Election Day, Republicans have limited time to reverse the national trend. For Democrats, the opportunity extends beyond winning closely contested districts: a sustained double-digit generic-ballot advantage could bring additional Republican-held seats into contention. The extent of any Democratic gains will depend on whether dissatisfaction with Trump translates into turnout and whether Republican candidates can separate themselves from an increasingly unpopular president.