Analysis of the 2022 U.S. Gubernatorial Elections

The midterm gubernatorial elections of 2022 were pivotal, occurring across 36 states on November 8, 2022. The results culminated in a surprising stalemate in party control, a significant event that caught many observers off guard, particularly those anticipating a Republican surge dubbed a “red wave.” Ultimately, both major parties secured equal governorships, with Democrats and Republicans each claiming victory in 18 states. This resulted in Democrats gaining a net increase of two governorships, marking a significant shift in some regions.

Three states previously held by Republicans were flipped to the Democratic column, marking historic wins for the party: Arizona, Maryland, and Massachusetts. In Arizona, Democrat Katie Hobbs narrowly defeated Republican Kari Lake, thus becoming the first Democrat to hold that governorship since 2006. The race was particularly contentious, as Hobbs garnered just 50.3% of the vote compared to Lake's 49.7%. Meanwhile, in Maryland, Wes Moore made history as the state’s first Black governor after securing a decisive victory over Republican incumbent Larry Hogan. Similarly, Maura Healey in Massachusetts became the first woman to serve as governor and was elected as the first openly gay candidate to hold such an office in the U.S., succeeding Charlie Baker, a moderate Republican.

On the other hand, Republicans managed to flip one governorship in Nevada, where Joe Lombardo unseated Democrat incumbent Steve Sisolak by a narrow margin of approximately 1.5 percentage points—48.8% to 47.3%. Sisolak stood out as the only sitting governor nationwide to lose re-election in 2022, while all other incumbents retained their positions.

The election also brought other historic milestones. Arkansas elected Sarah Huckabee Sanders as the state’s first female governor, adding to the list of groundbreaking achievements in the political landscape. Kathy Hochul stepped into her role as New York's first elected female governor, initially ascending to the position in 2021. Notably, Oregon's Tina Kotek and Massachusetts' Maura Healey earned recognition as the first openly lesbian women elected governors in the United States.

Democrats achieved a trifecta in Michigan, with Gretchen Whitmer winning re-election and allowing the party to control both legislative chambers. Similarly, Pennsylvania’s gubernatorial race saw Democrat Josh Shapiro secure a commanding victory over his far-right challenger, thus preserving Democratic control of this pivotal swing state. The overall trend indicated that voters favored moderate or incumbent candidates, which helped maintain a relatively stable outcome for governorships despite the highly polarized political climate.

Margins of Victory in the Key Battleground States

While many gubernatorial races were decided comfortably, several battleground states showcased closely contested victories. In Arizona, Katie Hobbs' triumph by approximately 17,000 votes represented one of the narrowest gubernatorial victories in the state’s history, allowing the seat to flip to the Democrats. Similarly, Nevada experienced a nail-biting contest, with Joe Lombardo defeating Steve Sisolak by around 15,000 votes—equivalent to just 1.5 percentage points.

Wisconsin saw a tight race as incumbent Governor Tony Evers secured a second term by roughly 90,000 votes, staving off a Republican takeover. Kansas, a typically Republican-leaning state, surprised many observers when Democratic Governor Laura Kelly won re-election by just over 20,000 votes, underscoring the potential impact of candidate moderation and local issues—a strategy Kelly successfully employed during her campaign. Another closely watched contest occurred in Oregon, where Tina Kotek prevailed in a three-way race with only a plurality of support; the presence of a significant independent candidate siphoned off votes from both major parties.

These narrow margins underscored the competitiveness of several gubernatorial races. In each case, the outcomes were shaped by late-breaking vote counts and shifts in support across different counties. Lombardo secured his victory in Nevada even by losing urban counties, which typically lean Democratic, by narrowing the margins in those areas. In Arizona, a shift among traditionally Republican suburbs of Phoenix allowed Hobbs to offset losses incurred in other regions. Wisconsin’s result reaffirmed its status as a swing state, hinging on turnout dynamics in crucial counties. Moreover, in Kansas, an uptick in voter turnout among Democrats and independents—primarily motivated by an earlier abortion rights referendum—enabled Kelly to maintain her position.

By contrast, several high-profile races were determined by more considerable margins. In Georgia, Gov. Brian Kemp defeated Stacey Abrams by around 7.5 points, a significant increase compared to their previously contested election 2018. Michigan’s Gretchen Whitmer won by nearly 11 points, exceeding expectations, while Pennsylvania’s Josh Shapiro emerged with a roughly 15-point lead—a resounding victory in this competitive state. Florida's Ron DeSantis transformed his previous tight race into a striking triumph in 2022, winning by roughly 19 points, and Ohio's Mike DeWine triumphed by over 25 points. In traditionally blue and red states, results also reflected similarly large margins, as evidenced by Maura Healey's substantial 28-point victory in Massachusetts and Mark Gordon’s dramatic 40-point win in Wyoming. The outcomes illustrated that many of the closest races were confined predominantly to a handful of swing states, while most governors, especially incumbents, enjoyed comparatively comfortable wins.

In summary, the 2022 midterm gubernatorial elections were marked by significant outcomes that hinted at evolving voter dynamics and partisan alignments across the country. Historical milestones were set, and the varying margins of victory signaled a competitive political landscape, revealing how battleground states played a pivotal role in shaping the future political trajectory. As voter turnout rates continued to rise and partisan sentiments ebbed and flowed, parties must adapt and strategize for the continually shifting electoral terrain.

Voter Turnout Statistics and Trends

The voter turnout for the 2022 midterm elections was impressive by historical standards, albeit slightly lower than the record levels set during the 2018 midterms. Approximately 46% of eligible voters participated in the 2022 elections, a decline from the 49% recorded in 2018—the highest midterm turnout rate the U.S. had experienced in over a century. However, 2022's turnout still surpassed all other midterms since the 1970s, demonstrating continued high levels of voter engagement. The Census Bureau highlighted that the 2022 midterms benefitted from the highest voter registration rate for a midterm election in 30 years, indicating strong enthusiasm for the electoral process and significant voter turnout trends.

Turnout varied significantly by state, with battlegrounds like Pennsylvania and Michigan experiencing high participation levels, while other regions did not quite achieve the turnout spikes seen in 2018. Most states reported slight declines in voter turnout, a trend frequently linked to the absence of compelling ballot issues or prominent races that typically stimulate interest, such as controversial ballot measures or high-profile candidate debates.

A fascinating pattern emerged regarding differential turnout across partisan lines. Specifically, Republican-leaning voter groups demonstrated higher participation rates in 2022 relative to 2018, a trend that analysts attribute primarily to varying turnout among partisan factions. This phenomenon allowed Republicans to remain competitive overall, even without a significant wave of support. In states such as Florida and Ohio, strong conservative turnout translated into substantial margins for Republican candidates. At the same time, deep-blue regions like New York recorded lower turnout among Democratic demographics, resulting in a narrower victory for incumbent Governor Kathy Hochul.

Youth voter turnout is particularly noteworthy. Tufts University’s CIRCLE research center estimates that approximately 27% of voters aged 18-29 cast their ballots in 2022. Although this marked a slight decrease from the record 31% achieved in 2018, it still represented the second-highest youth participation rate in nearly three decades. Young people constituted around 12% of the overall electorate in 2022, down from 13% in 2018, yet they remained a crucial voting bloc in tight gubernatorial contests. In states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, strong youth engagement contributed to preserving Democratic incumbents.

In contrast, voters aged 65 and above turned out slightly higher numbers than the previous midterm elections, reinforcing their status as the most reliable electorate segment. This shift in turnout patterns—marked by a drop in youth participation and a rise in older voter engagement—contrasted with the trends observed in 2018, when young voters had made significant electoral inroads.

Demographic and socioeconomic disparities also defined voter turnout in 2022. According to Census data, voter turnout among homeowners rose to 58%, whereas only 37% of renters participated in the elections, marking an increased gap compared to previous midterms. Income levels further influenced turnout patterns; approximately two-thirds of eligible voters earning over $100,000 cast their votes, starkly contrasting to only one-third earning less than $20,000. Racial turnout disparities were also evident, with voter participation rates among Black, Latino, and other nonwhite groups increasing compared to earlier midterms before 2018 but still falling short of the record levels achieved in 2018.

The overall turnout trends underscore that Americans were markedly engaged in the gubernatorial contests of 2022. Voter participation in 2018 and 2022 outpaced earlier midterms in the past decade, signaling a newfound norm of higher engagement in state elections. Campaigns also harnessed early voting and mail-in voting methods—practices that gained traction during the pandemic—resulting in a significant portion of votes being cast before Election Day. These dynamics contributed significantly to shaping the gubernatorial outcomes.