By BallotWire
2024
The 2024 U.S. gubernatorial elections occurred on November 5, 2024, alongside the presidential election, engaging voters across eleven states. These elections maintained the status quo, as each of the eleven governorships was retained by the party that previously held them. This marked a significant moment in American political history due to the absence of party flips—a rarity not seen in over a decade.
Entering the election season, Republicans held 27 governorships to Democrats' 23. Following the votes, this distribution remained unchanged. The high voter turnout, approximately 63%, marked the second-highest in gubernatorial elections since 1960. This surge in participation can largely be attributed to the concurrent presidential election, heightening the stakes and engagement among the electorate.
Incumbent Successes and Open Seats
Among the races, all three sitting governors who sought re-election were successful. Republican leaders Greg Gianforte of Montana, Spencer Cox of Utah, and Phil Scott of Vermont secured their positions. Meanwhile, eight open-seat contests emerged due to the retirements of long-serving governors or those reaching their term limits. This competitive dynamic did not yield any party shifts, with each incumbent's party maintaining control over these governorships.
A closer examination of the individual state outcomes.
Delaware: In one of the more closely watched races, Democrat Matt Meyer triumphed over Republican Mike Ramone, successfully retaining a Democratic seat vacated by term-limited Governor John Carney.
Indiana: Republican Mike Braun, a sitting U.S. Senator, defeated Democrat Jennifer McCormick, securing the GOP's governorship for the twentieth consecutive year—a sign of the party's enduring hold on the state.
Missouri: Lieutenant Governor Mike Kehoe secured victory against Democrat Crystal Quade to succeed term-limited Republican Mike Parson, further cementing Republican dominance in the Show-Me State.
Montana: The incumbent Republican Greg Gianforte won re-election against Democrat Ryan Busse, underlining Montana's inclination towards Republican leadership.
North Carolina: Democrat Josh Stein, the state Attorney General, outperformed Republican Mark Robinson, maintaining Democratic control in a state often viewed as a battleground. Stein focused on key issues such as education and environmental policies, navigating a contentious political landscape aggravated by Robinson's controversial comments in prior years.
North Dakota: Republican Kelly Armstrong won an open seat race to succeed fellow Republican Doug Burgum, reinforcing conservative dominance within this reliably red state.
New Hampshire: With incumbency shifting due to Chris Sununu's retirement, Republican Kelly Ayotte emerged victorious against Democrat Joyce Craig, allowing the GOP to retain this governorship amid a changing political climate.
Utah: Governor Spencer Cox faced little challenge in his re-election bid against Democrat Brian King, securing a significant majority in a solidly Republican enclave.
Vermont: Republican Phil Scott achieved an unprecedented fifth term as governor, securing approximately 70% of the vote despite Vermont's reputation for being a Democratic stronghold. His popularity underscores the unique appeal of moderate Republican leadership in New England.
Washington: Democrat Bob Ferguson emerged victorious over Republican Dave Reichert in a race that was anticipated but ultimately resulted in a comfortably Democratic outcome. Ferguson's campaign focused on maintaining progressive policies and ensuring that the governance followed the legacy of retiring Governor Jay Inslee.
West Virginia: Patrick Morrisey, the Republican candidate and state Attorney General, won overwhelmingly against Democrat Steve Williams, reaffirming the GOP's control in a state that has undergone significant partisan realignment.
Key Battlegrounds and Campaign Dynamics
Several races stood out due to their competitive nature and unique dynamics. North Carolina's governor race was a focal point for both parties, highlighting the complexities within a state that can sway between Democratic and Republican leadership. Stein's successful campaign strategies centered around prevalent issues resonating with the electorate, contrasting starkly against Robinson's more traditional, conservative approach, which faltered amidst his controversial past.
Similarly, New Hampshire provided a prime case of ticket-splitting, where voters opted for a Republican governor while simultaneously supporting Democratic candidates at the federal level. Ayotte's successful public safety campaign and the compelling narrative around reproductive rights facilitated her victory in a mixed political environment.
In Washington, Bob Ferguson's decisive win reinforced the state's continued Democratic tilt, emphasizing that, despite presenting a strong Republican candidate in Reichert, the political landscape remains challenging for GOP candidates in intensely blue territories.
Implications of the Election Results
The 2024 gubernatorial elections have significant implications for state governance and partisan politics in the future. The absence of party flips signals a consolidation of power within established leadership structures, reinforcing the existing divides while discouraging momentum for challengers. Each party's strategies and messaging will likely evolve in response to electoral dynamics, with both sides seeking to capitalize on the lessons learned in these contests.
As states prepare for future elections, understanding the factors leading to voter preferences—such as the impact of state issues, candidate appeal, and national political trends—will become increasingly crucial. This election cycle reinforces the status quo and sets the stage for future political battles that will be closely watched as Americans continue to engage in the democratic process and navigate the ever-changing political landscape. The trends observed in these gubernatorial races may reverberate through future electoral cycles, influencing strategies and outcomes well beyond state borders.